4 ms·
Nobody in this thread is trying to predict when the sigmoid is going to bend. Perhaps they should
by throwaway27448 2mo ago
Nobody in this thread is trying to predict when the sigmoid is going to bend. Perhaps they should
- yazaddaruvala 2mo agoPredicting when the sigmoid bends is difficult and predicting how long until it unbends is equally difficult. The simpler assumption is that over enough time, the S functions stack together for long enough that working backwards from exponential is a better predictor of reality. These stacked S curves have continually been true with most technology.
- haldujai 2mo agoIt hasn’t bent already? 2022-2024 certainly seemed far more exponential than 2024 to present.
- NiloCK 2mo agoI find this astounding. 2024 to present thread is can write a coherent 15 line function to ... what exactly? No future for research mathematicians othet than as tastemakers / agenda setters?
- aurareturn 2mo agoA lot of HN posters thought it was already bending at GPT4o/GPT4.5. Turns out, it kept accelerating (at agentic tasks).
- throwaway27448 2mo agoI suppose it depends what you're expecting. From my perspective it bent around november 2025