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It’s obviously real, at least as used in conversation, whether it meets some rigorous definition I’m sure there’s an out, but we’ve all known these people. With
by andy99 2mo ago
It’s obviously real, at least as used in conversation, whether it meets some rigorous definition I’m sure there’s an out, but we’ve all known these people. With vibe coding they’re everywhere. Is this going to be a modern “begging the question” where everyone knows what you mean but someone pipes up that actually the technical meaning is different?
- bonzini 2mo agoThe problem is that the original formulation was "most people" are unaware of being unskilled, but by now the name is used to mean "some group of people" is unaware of being unskilled. In that sense the article confirms that “a small number are", 5-6%, and therefore the effect exists in the colloquial sense but not in the scientific sense. Mentioning the Dunning-Krueger effect incorrectly is wonderfully meta...
- lokar 2mo agoMy experience with new CS grads was that most of them greatly overestimated what they knew, or alternatively, underestimated how much they did not know.
- Jensson 2mo agoMy experience with every person was that most of them overestimate what they know regardless of experience level. You just notice that more in new grads since its easier to tell when people are wrong about simple things than when they are wrong about more difficult things. Software engineers tend to repeat the mantra "you cannot make accurate time estimates". That is true regardless of experience level, and everyone seems to be off by about the same amount. So there we have evidence that people overestimate their skills at every level, and its not that different.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- shapefrog 2mo agogell mann effect leads me to pay closer attention and then its game over
- teekert 2mo agoIt’s my experience that I should over-estimate what I know otherwise I miss out on assignments that take me about 1-2 focused days of studying to get to sufficient level. Ie I was once perfect for a project except for point 7 out of 10 which was experience with Keycloak (if you’re higher via an HR dept it’s even worse, they just tick boxes, who cares if you are smart and have broad knowledge). So I’m now proudly Dunning-Krugering around, and use LLMs for super-charged learning. If I underestimated something I take the cost/time myself. So far it hasn’t happened to a significant degree.
- al_borland 2mo agoThis then boils down to people being generally bad at estimating their own level of ability.
- xboxnolifes 2mo agoWhich is exactly what the Dunner-Kruger effect is. Knowledgeable people statistically underestimating their knowledge and non-knowledgeable people overestimating their knowledge.
- burpingtree 2mo agoIt that’s the whole point that it’s just a mirage and is the same with random data. The people on the low end can’t underestimate their results as much and the people on the upper end can’t overestimate their results as much. That will come out of any correlation that is not perfectly correlated, which is why the article talks about it being replicable with random data. An interesting graph that would demonstrate a novel effect would be something nonlinear.
- Dylan16807 2mo agoThere are specific distributions that can be explained by random noise, and other distributions that cannot be explained by random noise. But even if it is entirely caused by normal distribution variance, that doesn't make it a mirage, it gives you a reason.
- 3form 2mo agoI've seen at least 3 different ideas on this topic: - people not skilled in a thing are bad at estimating their skills - people are generally bad at estimating their skills - people skilled in a particular areas often feel they are intellectually fit in other areas Out of these three I feel like there's some truth in it, at least anecdotally.
- andy99 2mo ago> people skilled in a particular areas often feel they are intellectually fit in other areas This I think is a separate phenomenon, maybe Nobel Disease but there might be a more general term, for example that includes celebrities.
- higginsniggins 2mo agoIt's called "engineer's disease" which is pretty appropriate for this community: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/engineer%27s_disease https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/engineer%27s_disease
- atmavatar 2mo agoMy experience has been that this isn't limited to engineers. I'm sure most people here have had people from other departments tell them how they need to do their jobs in one way or another. For example, there are always at least a few people who you have to consult regularly because their tickets are always written how they perceive a problem should be solved rather than explaining the underlying problem to be solved. Then there are the sales and marketing types who like to dictate how the UX of the front-end should be because they like to retell anecdotes to prospective clients about how they solved a problem. Then there's the guy who hands you a spreadsheet he's maintained for years and tells you he wants you to put something exactly like it in the flagship product as a new feature.
- antonvs 2mo agoMedical doctors and physicists also regularly suffer from this. It’s more of a disease of expertise in general, it seems.
- qingcharles 2mo agoThe four levels of competence: [ Unconscious Incompetence ] --> "You don't know what you don't know" ↓ [ Conscious Incompetence ] --> "You know what you don't know" ↓ [ Conscious Competence ] --> "You know, but you have to think about it" ↓ [ Unconscious Competence ] --> "You know it so well, it's second nature"
- bigfishrunning 2mo agoI think it's beautiful irony that many people have the dunning-kruger effect specifically concerning the dunning-kruger effect itself
- PunchyHamster 2mo agoIt can be true tho. You might be genuinely skilled in one domain and realize the extent of your skill, while being over-confident in one you have little experience. I also noticed people really successful at one thing tend to underestimate other domains, either thinking they are easy or that they can have meaningful input while being essentially novice (see any time Musk opens his mouth for example)
- shore88 2mo ago[dead]
- hn_throwaway_99 2mo agoWith all due respect, being cocksure enough to declare that the Dunning-Kruger effect is definitely a thing, even when more careful analysis shows that the study conclusions were in error due to faulty analysis in the original study, kinda sounds like the perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger effect...
- riddley 2mo agoThe one that doesn't exist?
- hn_throwaway_99 2mo agoYes, that one.