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While Anthropic and Open AI get 80% of the attention here, it's impressive to see how much Google is doing: near frontier model, fast models, open weight models
by xnx 3mo ago
While Anthropic and Open AI get 80% of the attention here, it's impressive to see how much Google is doing: near frontier model, fast models, open weight models, image generation, video generation, music generation, robotics, etc.
- ai-x 3mo ago[flagged]
- yellow_lead 3mo agoOpenAI and Anthropic can't do either of those if they go bankrupt first.
- ai-x 3mo agoPeople are going to be surprised by how obscenely profitable both will be in a couple of years
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- andriy_koval 3mo agoif open models get banned
- xnx 3mo agoTight competition and "obscenely profitable" rarely go hand-in-hand.
- 0x3f 3mo agoSeems unlikely. All three market leaders have roughly equivalent products, even ignoring the Chinese models. Google is better vertically integrated, as well. They'll end up competing on price, or worst case capacity rationing.
- elliotec 3mo agoIf that ends up being true, they should be very surprised. We're looking at ~$725B combined hyperscaler capex in 2026 (on a path to $1.08T by 2028) against roughly $25B of AI service revenue in 2025 on $250B+ of infrastructure spend. By 2030, the global data center build-out will require $6.7 trillion in capital expenditure. If hyperscalers require a 25% return on AI-specific capex, the industry needs to generate ~$169B in AI-attributable revenue annually by end of 2028. A flexible compute market plus three well-capitalized competitors plus Google's internal silicon means nobody gets to hold price. SpaceX's public offering is the best signal we have on this type of thing and it's down 15% from offer price. It's incredibly unlikely that BOTH OpenAI and Anthropic will be "obscenely" profitable in the next few years. Also very unlikely that even one will be "obscenely" profitable in the next few years. It is more likely (but still not very) that they both will be simply profitable (not obscenely). The most probable scenario is that ONE will be somewhat profitable (probably Anthropic) and the other still burning.
- ai-x 3mo agoYou know SpaceX is still publicly valued at $1.5T marketcap, right? (offering price has nothing to do with anything other than ego of founders/bankers). Yes, I will wait for the correct valuation when all stocks enter the liquidity pool. OpenAI/Anthropic obscenely profitable is an easy bet (for me)
- elliotec 3mo agoBetter you holding the bag than me. Unfortunately all of us will be holding parts of it.
- flextheruler 3mo agoThis essentially requires tripling the entire tech sector's share of the economy in a few years.
- goatlover 3mo agoWasn't this also predicted a couple years ago?
- snek_case 3mo agoThe thing with drug discovery is that the bottleneck is not coming up with new molecules, etc. It's the multi-year, extremely expensive clinical trials that often don't even succeed. I doubt it will be a big moneymaker for Anthropic and OpenAI, because the best they can hope for is to sell a software product to pharma companies, but the pharma companies already have lots of scientists with a million promising molecules already in study they will never even make it to clinical trials. In other words, can AI tech help? Probably, but I doubt it's going to be a major money maker, and it won't make a ton of money overnight. It's not like Claude Code where every programmer can begin using it instantly.
- ai-x 3mo agoIf you had asked HN 3 years ago what would code-generating market would be, they would have used the exact same reasoning and given us the opinion "Why no one will pay for glorified auto-complete"
- xboxnolifes 3mo agoThr pharma parallel to what tech is doing is replacing clinical trials with AI review. Im not so sure its the same thing.
- Petersipoi 3mo agoThe idea that AI curing cancer, heart disease, aging (you get the idea) won't be a money maker because "clinical trials" is absurd. Of course it will be. Obviously it isn't the same thing as coding agents. But a lot of money makers aren't the same things as coding agents.
- snek_case 3mo agoIn order to cure cancer with AI, you would need to give it complete control over the experimental pipeline, including probably direct robotic access to a web lab, which comes with its own set of risks. It's just not the same problem space as coding at all.
- da_grift_shift 3mo agoI love this kind of optimized-for-Xitter drive-by market analysis. Very 2026.
- rbtprograms 3mo agothe word delightful has lost all meaning to me
- bigyabai 3mo agoI like how someone can ignore that DeepMind invented AlphaFold, while OpenAI and Anthropic have zero experience shipping AI protein folding. This entire industry might be hopelessly tribalist, nowadays.
- ai-x 3mo agoI love how HN ignores past execution results
- wslh 3mo agoIt's way too early to pick winners. This industry is still in the opening moves. For example, today, investors are celebrating Microsoft's Azure growth as evidence that its AI investments are paying off: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49110965 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49110965>
- hexeater 3mo agoAnd protein folding + Nobel Prize
- AFF87 3mo agoBaffles me how this is not that well known
- freakynit 3mo agoAnd AlphaGo Zero .. probably the first real-world deployment of a self-improving system that beat humans.
- smokel 3mo agoI think that credit might go to IBM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TD-Gammon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TD-Gammon
- jeremyjh 3mo agoIt was a huge advancement but it did not beat the world champion. AlphaGo is noted for being a self-learning system that became better than all humans. Chess engines had long been there but were not self-learning before AlphaZero.
- BeetleB 3mo ago> probably the first real-world deployment of a self-improving system that beat humans. Isn't that Checkers right from the dawn of reinforcement learning?
- tantalor 3mo agoGoogle DeepMind disbands its Nobel-prize winning AlphaFold team https://www.engadget.com/2225849/google-shuts-down-alphafold/ https://www.engadget.com/2225849/google-shuts-down-alphafold... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49098375 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49098375
- 3mo ago
- egorthinks 3mo agoGoogle DeepMind was at the forefront of AI, and they are currently developing new concepts while others chase benchmark percentages.
- JeremyNT 3mo agoIt's certainly an odd situation where Google is on the forefront of all these emerging technologies while the latest chatbots from OpenAI and Anthropic are getting breathless press releases and wildly hyperbolic coverage ("rogue AIs" "too dangerous, must be banned" etc...) Google acting like a normal but competent company that's just chugging away, meanwhile the hype cycle is propping up its upstart competitors to truly ludicrous valuations.
- IanCal 3mo ago> Google acting like a normal but competent company that's just chugging away, Chugging away not releasing products or releasing ones worse than their competition typically. Not sure that’s what a normal competent company should be doing.
- JumpCrisscross 3mo ago> Google acting like a normal but competent company that's just chugging away Competent is a stretch. Google's AI offering seems to be, once again, PM led–lots of constantly-changing brands being merged and deprecated with zero customer support or service. They'll almost certainly be one of the survivors. Their technical competece is unmatched. But that doesn't mean they have a great product in the way both OpenAI and Anthropic do. (Outside their datacentres, which are a legitimate feat.)
- pants2 3mo agoAfter all this time it's still a pain point just to pay them for a Gemini API key.
- mountainriver 3mo agoSo crazy, at one point they had 3 different systems for interacting with Gemini, all with different auth. For a company that prides themselves on the smartest engineers, they really struggle with the basics
- 3mo ago
- ddfarmr 3mo agoI recommend reading „The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence“ from Sebastian Mallaby. It offers a detailed glimpse into the reasons behind your observation regarding Google/DeepMind and the other frontier labs. best book I read so far on my current vacation.
- jimbob45 3mo agoWhile I agree, it’s hard to trust Google not to kill this off in the future. They’re not winning and the prospect of dumping their own for a partnership with another AI company isn’t out of the picture.
- krisgenre 3mo agoYes, I am surprised that no one talks about the 'live' feature in Gemini app. With camera turned on, it has helped me fix things which I have no clue about.
- sakree 3mo agothing is, google have a track record of dropping support or just killing of projects. Personally, I view most of google's products and services as a business risk, because you never know when they will kill it.
- chesscoachx 3mo ago[flagged]
- jeffybefffy519 3mo agoand building inference hardware
- mountainriver 3mo agoIt’s basically because LLMs supersede all of these. The ability to reason, research, and write code applies to everything else and will speed up the innovation cycles there significantly. Google is losing in the race that really matters