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If a Chinese model can do it for $1-10K, then why hasn't one? Why have all the mathematical (and now cryptographic) breakthroughs come from OpenAI and Anthropi

If a Chinese model can do it for $1-10K, then why hasn't one? Why have all the mathematical (and now cryptographic) breakthroughs come from OpenAI and Anthropic? Is it possibly because the Chinese models are so benchmaxxed they can't make novel discoveries?

poidos 3mo ago
Don't know if one has or not, but a lack of announcement is not a lack of success.
- mwigdahl 3mo ago
  Do you really think that if a Chinese model had achieved a significant math breakthrough that it wouldn't be trumpeted to the global media? The "Deepseek moment" was great for China; this would be the same.
arcanemachiner 3mo ago
They're a few months behind the frontier, which, by the way, only started making these discoveries in the last few months.
- throw10920 3mo ago
  That might be true, but it's irrelevant to the current discussion, which is arguing about whether or not Chinese models can do this now. One of the commentators above is arguing that it's not only possible but significantly cheaper (i.e. Chinese models are not only at par with frontier but several months ahead).
  - arcanemachiner 3mo ago
    Ah, sorry, you're right. I would be willing to be that Kimi could do a decent job today, but definitely not for 1% of the price.
nozzlegear 3mo ago
Perhaps since the Chinese companies don't have the economy of an entire global superpower riding on them, they can't afford to light $100k+ on fire doing random shit with the hope it'll turn out a research paper.
ozozozd 3mo ago
“I haven’t seen X, therefore it doesn’t exist.” Absence of evidence is not an evidence for absence of something.
- pseudohadamard 3mo ago
  I haven't seen leprechauns, at least not without the aid of xiao ren ren mushrooms, but I'm still pretty sure they don't exist.
nojs 3mo ago
For one thing they are extremely GPU constrained due to export controls, so it’s unlikely a priority compared to training
- heaney-555 3mo ago
  So why didn't anyone with access to Chinese models do it. They're open-source, right? So you're telling me no-one could afford $1K to solve a problem like this? (hint: it's BS, the Chinese models either can't do it or can at the same or greater cost)

poidos 3mo ago

Don't know if one has or not, but a lack of announcement is not a lack of success.

mwigdahl 3mo ago
Do you really think that if a Chinese model had achieved a significant math breakthrough that it wouldn't be trumpeted to the global media? The "Deepseek moment" was great for China; this would be the same.

arcanemachiner 3mo ago

They're a few months behind the frontier, which, by the way, only started making these discoveries in the last few months.

throw10920 3mo ago
That might be true, but it's irrelevant to the current discussion, which is arguing about whether or not Chinese models can do this now. One of the commentators above is arguing that it's not only possible but significantly cheaper (i.e. Chinese models are not only at par with frontier but several months ahead).
- arcanemachiner 3mo ago
  Ah, sorry, you're right. I would be willing to be that Kimi could do a decent job today, but definitely not for 1% of the price.

nozzlegear 3mo ago

Perhaps since the Chinese companies don't have the economy of an entire global superpower riding on them, they can't afford to light $100k+ on fire doing random shit with the hope it'll turn out a research paper.

ozozozd 3mo ago

“I haven’t seen X, therefore it doesn’t exist.” Absence of evidence is not an evidence for absence of something.

pseudohadamard 3mo ago
I haven't seen leprechauns, at least not without the aid of xiao ren ren mushrooms, but I'm still pretty sure they don't exist.

nojs 3mo ago

For one thing they are extremely GPU constrained due to export controls, so it’s unlikely a priority compared to training

heaney-555 3mo ago
So why didn't anyone with access to Chinese models do it. They're open-source, right? So you're telling me no-one could afford $1K to solve a problem like this? (hint: it's BS, the Chinese models either can't do it or can at the same or greater cost)