3 ms·

Maybe hacker news is wrong and SpaceX is actually valuable.

yieldcrv 3mo ago
$500bn marketcap is still valuable Its how it declines to that point at another 70% loss from $1.5 trillion that people are worried about
throwaway27448 3mo ago
I don't think anyone is arguing SpaceX is actually valuable, just overvalued and the repeated recipient of obvious corruption.
- dmix 3mo ago
  Which corruption exactly? NASDAQ giving them fast entry so the biggest IPO in history is done on NASDAQ and not on NYSE who was also competing for it? Both are fighting for OpenAI and Anthropic listings as well which likely influenced their choice to get in early with SpaceX
  - throwaway27448 3mo ago
    I was primarily referring to the acquisition of musk's ai company. But the more general (and unfortunately widely accepted practice of) government contracting culture certainly applies to OpenAI and Anthropic as well. EDIT: cleaned up my comment; removed a more inflammatory claim about corruption in the private sector.
    - consensus1 3mo ago
      Who has delivered better value for money on government contracts than SpaceX?
      - sportsracersss 3mo ago
        You can't make that claim for a company that's as deep in the red as SpaceX is. With all of the VC subsidies, the cost of delivering the product isn't reflected in the price they charge.
      - throwaway27448 3mo ago
        > Who has delivered better value for money on government contracts than SpaceX? We cannot answer this question without completely rearranging how we grant contracts. It doesn't matter: any single provider of a service will fuck us over. Even fucking libertarians can see this
  - yieldcrv 3mo ago
    fortunately the passive investor bagholding didn’t work, the price sliced straight through their forced buying pressure and only created more shortable shares, as people without share lending sold to passive funds that do Corruption that stands out to me would be regarding starlink, Elon got the FCC to change power emission rules to hamper competitors with better satellites, but the competitors were able to comply and offer a better service still, while starlink’s existing fleet cannot. meaning elon still would actually have to compete and make a new starlink fleet, which he is doing now. (Basically competitors dont need a base station, and future starlink wont meed a base station either, direct to device ubiquity high speed service is coming) but before that path, he then tried to get an exception from the fcc regulation he promulgated, which was extremely grimy. The fcc didn’t go along.
    - dmix 3mo ago
      > Elon got the FCC to change power emission rules to hamper competitors with better satellites Didn't SpaceX petition to lessen the rules around geostationary power limits? Why would less rules be corruption? Because it disfavors legacy incumbents? Amazon also benefited from the new rules.
      - yieldcrv 3mo ago
        the order of operations matters here. they tried to limit the ability of direct to device competitors to function, as the current starlink fleet is practically useless for direct to device. they got their regulatory change, and it didn't limit the ability of direct device competitors to function. THEN their petition came.
        dmix 3mo ago
        I still don't see how companies petitioning FCC for rule changes is a signal of corruption. Especially when the existing rules benefited entrenched companies who were petitioning to keep them. And the end result resulted in Amazon also getting a waiver.
        3mo ago
piloto_ciego 3mo ago
Yeah, I have put my money where my mouth is, but I think it is. Extraordinarily so, and I think the Musk hate has clouded people’s judgement. For what it’s worth, I get it. I have found Musk insufferable for the last decade since he attached himself to the right and got into drugs, however I think SpaceX is undervalued right now. 1. They are literally the only company on earth with a reliable partially reusable launch system. There are a few people trying, but everyone else is way behind. 2. When they eventually (hopefully) get Starship right, we will see a price drop in the cost of transportation to orbit we have never seen. When I did the numbers a few years ago, the price for space mining to be comparable to terrestrial mining was around $20-60/kg to orbit. They’d effectively be the ONLY way to access that. That’s one of a gazillion things that becomes possible with cheap access to space. UPS becomes a competitor at those prices… it’s game changing. 3. They are basically dominating the satellite internet world. Nothing compares. Starlink is amazing, especially here in Alaska, I suspect they will eventually have a phone, which will be revolutionary. 4. A gazillion government contracts, Star shield, and arguably point to point QRF shuttle (after starship). The defense implications alone mean that they are going to be around indefinitely. I don’t know, but I think people are sleeping on this.
- stevefan1999 3mo ago
  5. A gazillion amount of telemetry data and social media data to sell on the data broker market. That alone is enough to attract another billion dollar of potential investment consistently, especially for training data and intelligence...you know, selling to the Mossad or CIA. In a world of money, every bit you can earn, you have to earn, while I know it is immoral to sell the data for spying purposes, morality alone don't mean shit now, that I never see any capitalists and corpo dogs have any kind of morality anyway, except when massive backslash, congress hearings and boycotts, which is, ahem, Meta/Facebook and Cambridge Analytica. But given the unique position Musk used to have in Trump's government and his right leaning position he is safe to do so. At least for now, he is immune to holding congress hearing for a scandal I suppose. And not to mention that Grok is literally trained over X/Twitter, and keep in mind Bluesky is federated and strangely, no one seems to be scraping it over ActivityPub. I believe Thread is also built on the same foundation but it's sure that Meta made good measures for antiscraping, I expected as a data oriented company. Alas, keep in mind SpaceX merged with xAI and nonetheless don't forget their data side

$500bn marketcap is still valuable Its how it declines to that point at another 70% loss from $1.5 trillion that people are worried about

throwaway27448 3mo ago

I don't think anyone is arguing SpaceX is actually valuable, just overvalued and the repeated recipient of obvious corruption.

dmix 3mo ago
Which corruption exactly? NASDAQ giving them fast entry so the biggest IPO in history is done on NASDAQ and not on NYSE who was also competing for it? Both are fighting for OpenAI and Anthropic listings as well which likely influenced their choice to get in early with SpaceX
- throwaway27448 3mo ago
  I was primarily referring to the acquisition of musk's ai company. But the more general (and unfortunately widely accepted practice of) government contracting culture certainly applies to OpenAI and Anthropic as well. EDIT: cleaned up my comment; removed a more inflammatory claim about corruption in the private sector.
  - consensus1 3mo ago
    Who has delivered better value for money on government contracts than SpaceX?
    - sportsracersss 3mo ago
      You can't make that claim for a company that's as deep in the red as SpaceX is. With all of the VC subsidies, the cost of delivering the product isn't reflected in the price they charge.
    - throwaway27448 3mo ago
      > Who has delivered better value for money on government contracts than SpaceX? We cannot answer this question without completely rearranging how we grant contracts. It doesn't matter: any single provider of a service will fuck us over. Even fucking libertarians can see this
- yieldcrv 3mo ago
  fortunately the passive investor bagholding didn’t work, the price sliced straight through their forced buying pressure and only created more shortable shares, as people without share lending sold to passive funds that do Corruption that stands out to me would be regarding starlink, Elon got the FCC to change power emission rules to hamper competitors with better satellites, but the competitors were able to comply and offer a better service still, while starlink’s existing fleet cannot. meaning elon still would actually have to compete and make a new starlink fleet, which he is doing now. (Basically competitors dont need a base station, and future starlink wont meed a base station either, direct to device ubiquity high speed service is coming) but before that path, he then tried to get an exception from the fcc regulation he promulgated, which was extremely grimy. The fcc didn’t go along.
  - dmix 3mo ago
    > Elon got the FCC to change power emission rules to hamper competitors with better satellites Didn't SpaceX petition to lessen the rules around geostationary power limits? Why would less rules be corruption? Because it disfavors legacy incumbents? Amazon also benefited from the new rules.
    - yieldcrv 3mo ago
      the order of operations matters here. they tried to limit the ability of direct to device competitors to function, as the current starlink fleet is practically useless for direct to device. they got their regulatory change, and it didn't limit the ability of direct device competitors to function. THEN their petition came.
      - dmix 3mo ago
        I still don't see how companies petitioning FCC for rule changes is a signal of corruption. Especially when the existing rules benefited entrenched companies who were petitioning to keep them. And the end result resulted in Amazon also getting a waiver.
        3mo ago

piloto_ciego 3mo ago

Yeah, I have put my money where my mouth is, but I think it is. Extraordinarily so, and I think the Musk hate has clouded people’s judgement. For what it’s worth, I get it. I have found Musk insufferable for the last decade since he attached himself to the right and got into drugs, however I think SpaceX is undervalued right now. 1. They are literally the only company on earth with a reliable partially reusable launch system. There are a few people trying, but everyone else is way behind. 2. When they eventually (hopefully) get Starship right, we will see a price drop in the cost of transportation to orbit we have never seen. When I did the numbers a few years ago, the price for space mining to be comparable to terrestrial mining was around $20-60/kg to orbit. They’d effectively be the ONLY way to access that. That’s one of a gazillion things that becomes possible with cheap access to space. UPS becomes a competitor at those prices… it’s game changing. 3. They are basically dominating the satellite internet world. Nothing compares. Starlink is amazing, especially here in Alaska, I suspect they will eventually have a phone, which will be revolutionary. 4. A gazillion government contracts, Star shield, and arguably point to point QRF shuttle (after starship). The defense implications alone mean that they are going to be around indefinitely. I don’t know, but I think people are sleeping on this.

stevefan1999 3mo ago
5. A gazillion amount of telemetry data and social media data to sell on the data broker market. That alone is enough to attract another billion dollar of potential investment consistently, especially for training data and intelligence...you know, selling to the Mossad or CIA. In a world of money, every bit you can earn, you have to earn, while I know it is immoral to sell the data for spying purposes, morality alone don't mean shit now, that I never see any capitalists and corpo dogs have any kind of morality anyway, except when massive backslash, congress hearings and boycotts, which is, ahem, Meta/Facebook and Cambridge Analytica. But given the unique position Musk used to have in Trump's government and his right leaning position he is safe to do so. At least for now, he is immune to holding congress hearing for a scandal I suppose. And not to mention that Grok is literally trained over X/Twitter, and keep in mind Bluesky is federated and strangely, no one seems to be scraping it over ActivityPub. I believe Thread is also built on the same foundation but it's sure that Meta made good measures for antiscraping, I expected as a data oriented company. Alas, keep in mind SpaceX merged with xAI and nonetheless don't forget their data side