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Their yields on high performance chips that could do training is really bad, and they aren’t getting more of the outdated ASML machines that they could use to s

Their yields on high performance chips that could do training is really bad, and they aren’t getting more of the outdated ASML machines that they could use to scale up even with bad yields. It will still take China a few years or a decade to build out the tech needed to fab high performance chips economically on their own.

edg5000 3mo ago
Can't they use GlobalFoundries, Intel or TSMC in addition to their own fabs?
- trollbridge 3mo ago
  Chinese companies are effectively embargoed from using them for <14nm.
  - znnajdla 3mo ago
    Sounds like an invasion of Taiwan could fix that problem for them.
    - seanmcdirmid 3mo ago
      No, Taiwan has to import the machines, the spare parts, and even some of the raw materials from western firms. If China invaded Taiwan, they might get some engineers, and maybe some designs they had no hope of implementing anytime soon. The fans, if they survived, wouldn’t be very useful. There is a reason the west doesn’t tell China adjacent countries that they can’t fab due to risk of invasion.
      - tedd4u 3mo ago
        And, “TSMC and ASML, currently, the only supplier of tools that could make cutting-edge 2nm chips, have added a ‘kill switch’ that will disable TSMC’s EUV machines remotely. According to Bloomberg.” https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machines-are-equipped-with-a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machine...
        edg5000 3mo ago
        If you had physicial access to the machine, you could disable that feature. It would take some work since it must be baked into binaries, but far easier than creating a new EUB machine from scratch, I presume.
FooBarWidget 3mo ago
They can already make chips economically. Yields are worse than TSCM but good enough since they no longer need to pay the "Qualcomm tax". Huawei's phones are profitable. The issue is rather that Chinese capacity comes from a low quantity, and scaling capacity while simultaneously indigineousizing parts takes time — years. Foreign capacity was too good and too cheap so they never succeeded in scaling capacity, because the demand for Chinese fabs wasn't there. Now the demand for domestic capacity is there and they're scaling like crazy, like 100-200% growth per year. But demand still far outpaces capacity. Fabs are hard to build. You need many more years of 200% growth to even approach the demand. And yes, I made use of emdash. It's a legit grammar tool. Sue me.
- seanmcdirmid 3mo ago
  They can make chips economically or they can make high performance chips. They just can’t do both at the same time yet. The chip supply chain in the west is under heavy lock and key and impossible to reverse engineer, so they have to develop all from scratch. And that’s what they are doing, it will just take some time.

edg5000 3mo ago

Can't they use GlobalFoundries, Intel or TSMC in addition to their own fabs?

trollbridge 3mo ago
Chinese companies are effectively embargoed from using them for <14nm.
- znnajdla 3mo ago
  Sounds like an invasion of Taiwan could fix that problem for them.
  - seanmcdirmid 3mo ago
    No, Taiwan has to import the machines, the spare parts, and even some of the raw materials from western firms. If China invaded Taiwan, they might get some engineers, and maybe some designs they had no hope of implementing anytime soon. The fans, if they survived, wouldn’t be very useful. There is a reason the west doesn’t tell China adjacent countries that they can’t fab due to risk of invasion.
    - tedd4u 3mo ago
      And, “TSMC and ASML, currently, the only supplier of tools that could make cutting-edge 2nm chips, have added a ‘kill switch’ that will disable TSMC’s EUV machines remotely. According to Bloomberg.” https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machines-are-equipped-with-a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machine...
      - edg5000 3mo ago
        If you had physicial access to the machine, you could disable that feature. It would take some work since it must be baked into binaries, but far easier than creating a new EUB machine from scratch, I presume.

FooBarWidget 3mo ago

They can already make chips economically. Yields are worse than TSCM but good enough since they no longer need to pay the "Qualcomm tax". Huawei's phones are profitable. The issue is rather that Chinese capacity comes from a low quantity, and scaling capacity while simultaneously indigineousizing parts takes time — years. Foreign capacity was too good and too cheap so they never succeeded in scaling capacity, because the demand for Chinese fabs wasn't there. Now the demand for domestic capacity is there and they're scaling like crazy, like 100-200% growth per year. But demand still far outpaces capacity. Fabs are hard to build. You need many more years of 200% growth to even approach the demand. And yes, I made use of emdash. It's a legit grammar tool. Sue me.

seanmcdirmid 3mo ago
They can make chips economically or they can make high performance chips. They just can’t do both at the same time yet. The chip supply chain in the west is under heavy lock and key and impossible to reverse engineer, so they have to develop all from scratch. And that’s what they are doing, it will just take some time.