3 ms·
Yes. Every great technology developed to date has been a net positive for the human race. Including the more controversial ones, like internal combustion engine
by Marha01 3mo ago
Yes. Every great technology developed to date has been a net positive for the human race. Including the more controversial ones, like internal combustion engines or nuclear power. Why should AI be different? I think the critics always fixate on the negatives, but ignore the potential big positives.
- mrbungie 3mo agoLong-term, sure. Short-term it is going to cause a lot of suffering.
- muldvarp 3mo agoThere are many technologies that have not been a net positive for humanity. Leaded gasoline comes to mind immediately. For many other technologies it is also hard to determine because counterfactuals are hard to reason about. Even then past performance is not an indicator of future results. Just because you think internal combustion engines were a great invention, doesn't mean AI cannot be bad for humanity.
- Marha01 3mo agoI wouldn't say that leaded gasoline is a great technology like AI, it's a pretty niche tech. Gasoline in general is comparable to AI, and the pros of that outweight the cons. Modern civilization would be impossible without gasoline. >Even then past performance is not an indicator of future results. It is not perfect or guaranteed, but it can definitely be an indicator. Technological progress is the main reason for the massive standard of living increases that we have witnessed in the last ~200 years. If someone wants to argue that this trend will stop or even reverse, they need very strong arguments, IMHO.
- muldvarp 3mo agoI suspect your reasoning is circular if you only consider "great" technologies.
- Marha01 3mo agoI am only considering great, consequential technologies because AI is such a great technology. Comparing it to some niche techs would result in false analogies.
- muldvarp 3mo agoLeaded gasoline to me is a very consequential technology given how much toxic lead it put into our environment. Do you have an argument why "normal" technology can be good or bad, but "consequential" technology is always good?
- Marha01 3mo ago> Do you have an argument why "normal" technology can be good or bad, but "consequential" technology is always good? Because consequential technology has many applications in diverse fields. And applications of technology are more often beneficial than harmful. So if the technology is broadly useful, in aggregate the beneficial applications will outweight the harmful ones.
- muldvarp 3mo agoBy that definition gasoline would not classify as a consequential technology as it's almost exclusively used in a single application (transportation). It also already assumes that the technology is more often benefical than harmful.
- Marha01 3mo agoTransportation fueled by fossil fuels is the foundational technology of modern civilization. It is comparable to electricity or the printing press. AI will be like this too in the future.
- muldvarp 3mo agoYou're arguing against a point I never made. I agree that AI will be an important technology. I also think that it'll affect people that have to work for a living negatively (both in the short-term and assuming there is no foundational change in the structure of society, also in the long-term).
- miyoji 3mo ago> Gasoline in general is comparable to AI, and the pros of that outweight the cons. This analogy is great, because your grandchildren will probably not consider gasoline to be a great technology, they'll consider it the thing that caused the wars and the famines.
- Marha01 3mo ago> This analogy is great, because your grandchildren will probably not consider gasoline to be a great technology, they'll consider it the thing that caused the wars and the famines. They will also realize that industrial civilization enabled by gasoline was a necessary step towards the renewable energy utopia they are living in. Developing advanced technology takes a lot of energy.
- Alwayshasbeeb 3mo agoNothing today indicates that they will be living in a renewable energy utopia. Solar panels and batteries getting cheaper is just not enough.
- Marha01 3mo agoIt is, if they get cheap enough.
- miyoji 3mo ago> They will also realize that industrial civilization enabled by gasoline was a necessary step towards the renewable energy utopia they are living in. Your grandchildren won't be living in a renewable energy utopia, precisely because you believe that burning fossil fuels is necessary for advancement.
- docandrew 3mo agoWe still use leaded gasoline (100LL) in prop airplanes today, for what it’s worth. So it’s not clearly a net-negative technology.
- muldvarp 3mo agoThe fact a technology is still in use does not imply that it is not negative for humanity.
- pandoro 3mo agoDepends on your point of view. Has the web been a net positive overall? If your criteria is "instant access to any information" or "catalyze more technological progress" then positive, if your criteria is "young people's mental health" or "how easy it is to control the public's perception about a certain topic" then negative in my opinion. It's all relative.
- Marha01 3mo agoI judge it in the aggregate. Overall, we have higher standard of living than people 30 years ago.
- matkoniecz 3mo agoIf you judge on aggregate then "Every great technology developed to date has been a net positive" is nonsense. You cannot judge aggregate positively and conclude that therefore each segment was positive.
- Marha01 3mo ago> If you judge on aggregate then "Every great technology developed to date has been a net positive" is nonsense. It's not nonsense. If you think so, provide one great technology that has been a net negative.
- Alwayshasbeeb 3mo agoThat's quite easy. Fracking Social media infinite scrolling and targeted ads Short form videos (tik tok, YouTube shorts, instagram reels) Coming soon: Deep sea mining Some of these are not great technologies, you might say. Well if they're impactful enough to turn everyone I love into a phone zombie and make the political landscape violent and insane then that's enough.
- Marha01 3mo agoThose are just specific applications of some technology, not comparable to AI in general.
- podocarp 3mo agoA common thing is to lump things together like a tech tree. Is it possible to conceive of a world where nuclear power is invented but not nuclear weapons? Combustion engines but not let everyone have a car and then cause cities to be planned around cars?