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The AI Superforecasters Are Here
- ddp26 4mo agoIndeed they are! It's funny, in Sept 2024 I and others wrote about how the AI Superforecasters _weren't_ here, despite several claims that they were: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGkRcHqatmPkvpGLq/contra-papers-claiming-superhuman-ai-forecasting https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGkRcHqatmPkvpGLq/contra-pap...
- tliptay 4mo agoI'm jealous that this does not refer to us: "I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months." I also talked to him and 100% believe he was able to pull this off. And it was on 10,000+ trades so it wasn't luck.