4 ms·

Chinese models brought the building down. are export controls the right thing ? Probably not. but the american economy is over-exposed on "A.I" - the capital

by dzonga 4mo ago

Chinese models brought the building down. are export controls the right thing ? Probably not. but the american economy is over-exposed on "A.I" - the capital expenditure, while the Chinese are proving you don't need to spend tons of capital to get close to the frontier. the Chinese have better building capacity & cheaper energy. that means the market has to correct at some point.

kraken_cult 4mo ago
[flagged]
- chews 4mo ago
  -3 homer discount
dakolli 4mo ago
I trust Chinese companies with my data way more than the corporations of the 4th Reich.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
- Rover222 4mo ago
  Incredible display of brainwashing
  - amanaplanacanal 3mo ago
    My local government has way more power over me than some government on the other side of the world, and way more reason to be interested in my activities. That's just reality.
kcb 4mo ago
You really think China doesn't have massive amounts of capital expenditure related to AI? They're actively bootstrapping an entire chip industry.... https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billion-plan-fund-nationwide-ai-buildout-bloomberg-news-2026-06-09/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billi...
- xmprt 4mo ago
  Relatives vs absolutes. America will spend $500B and because of leaky pipes that's effectively 100B going directly to what's needed. China gets a lot of bang for their buck so even if they're spending a fraction of the US, they make it worth their money.
  - boc 4mo ago
    That's true for domestic labor and manufacturing, like shipbuilding, but the bleeding edge chips only come from one place and the US labs get the best while Chinese labs do not (unless they smuggle them). China gets creative, sure, but it can't overcome the fundamental issue that the US labs have more magic rocks that do math faster than their magic rocks. And the current state of the art is to just "do more math".
    - bel8 4mo ago
      Nvidia GPUs aren't even the absolute SOTA for LLM inference anymore. Some labs are moving to ASICs and Huawei already have their own custom chips running DeepSeek as we speak. There's enough money and scale on the line that software affinity like CUDA is no longer the deciding factor and there's margin for custom stacks. Even more so after the USA GPU exports ban which is proving to have backfired by speeding up China's tech growth.
      - aspenmartin 4mo ago
        Definitely hasn’t backfired. Exporting would have just sped up their progress. Instead they had to get clever and lean into the bottleneck which for them, now, is compute efficiency. This is temporary and they’ll figure out competitive chip design and production but not for several more years. It’s incredibly hard to match the quality of NVidia and TSMC, as China has found throughout years of trying.
villish 4mo ago
It's a little too later for export controls. Chinese models have made massive gains through legitimate research but also being trained on billions of tokens from Claude/GPT. The politicians have no idea how to stop that from happening so they pull the only lever they know.
- zamalek 4mo ago
  Also, don't forget that we're only here because the clown-in-chief cut them off from GPUs - forcing them to make do with inferior hardware (and hence superior ideas). I have no doubt that any controls would only make China stronger.
  - aspenmartin 4mo ago
    Its like any other sanction, its designed to slow not stop
    - HarHarVeryFunny 4mo ago
      But it actually had the exact opposite effect. First the US blocked China from buying NVIDIA's H100, but allowed NVIDIA to sell them a China-special nerfed H100, the H800 Then the US blocked the H800 Then the US realized that China was indeed accelerating their US independence, so does a U-turn and has now approved the H200 (more powerful than both the H100 and H800) for sale to China, on a case-by-case basis However - and here is the real kicker - China themselves are now blocking H200 purchases since they want the acceleration towards Chinese homegrown solutions to continue, and now we have Chinese models being served on Huawei Ascend chips, with next generation Ascend 750 chips (using CXMT made memory) targetting training currently in testing. Now we have Apple asking the US government for permission to buy memory from CXMT given the global shortage!
      - aspenmartin 4mo ago
        The Jensen argument that "oh we get them hooked on our technology and that will actually be better" is bullshit -- they would do the exact same thing they're doing now of building their own supply chains and compute power but be able to accelerate their progress in the meantime with US chips. It is worse in every way to sell them SOTA chips (or even previous generation chips). Of course they have ways around this -- you can get black market GPUs and also API costs are SUPER cheap there -- they hack the subscription model, bundle a bunch of user accounts, and route API requests through them. And yes they are getting to parity with US technology and will get there in a few years, they have decent chips but still not the quality of NVIDIA. It's really a very complex situation

by dzonga 4mo ago

kraken_cult 4mo ago

[flagged]

chews 4mo ago
-3 homer discount

dakolli 4mo ago

I trust Chinese companies with my data way more than the corporations of the 4th Reich.

deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
Rover222 4mo ago
Incredible display of brainwashing
- amanaplanacanal 3mo ago
  My local government has way more power over me than some government on the other side of the world, and way more reason to be interested in my activities. That's just reality.

kcb 4mo ago

You really think China doesn't have massive amounts of capital expenditure related to AI? They're actively bootstrapping an entire chip industry.... https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billion-plan-fund-nationwide-ai-buildout-bloomberg-news-2026-06-09/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billi...

xmprt 4mo ago
Relatives vs absolutes. America will spend $500B and because of leaky pipes that's effectively 100B going directly to what's needed. China gets a lot of bang for their buck so even if they're spending a fraction of the US, they make it worth their money.
- boc 4mo ago
  That's true for domestic labor and manufacturing, like shipbuilding, but the bleeding edge chips only come from one place and the US labs get the best while Chinese labs do not (unless they smuggle them). China gets creative, sure, but it can't overcome the fundamental issue that the US labs have more magic rocks that do math faster than their magic rocks. And the current state of the art is to just "do more math".
  - bel8 4mo ago
    Nvidia GPUs aren't even the absolute SOTA for LLM inference anymore. Some labs are moving to ASICs and Huawei already have their own custom chips running DeepSeek as we speak. There's enough money and scale on the line that software affinity like CUDA is no longer the deciding factor and there's margin for custom stacks. Even more so after the USA GPU exports ban which is proving to have backfired by speeding up China's tech growth.
    - aspenmartin 4mo ago
      Definitely hasn’t backfired. Exporting would have just sped up their progress. Instead they had to get clever and lean into the bottleneck which for them, now, is compute efficiency. This is temporary and they’ll figure out competitive chip design and production but not for several more years. It’s incredibly hard to match the quality of NVidia and TSMC, as China has found throughout years of trying.

villish 4mo ago

It's a little too later for export controls. Chinese models have made massive gains through legitimate research but also being trained on billions of tokens from Claude/GPT. The politicians have no idea how to stop that from happening so they pull the only lever they know.

zamalek 4mo ago
Also, don't forget that we're only here because the clown-in-chief cut them off from GPUs - forcing them to make do with inferior hardware (and hence superior ideas). I have no doubt that any controls would only make China stronger.
- aspenmartin 4mo ago
  Its like any other sanction, its designed to slow not stop
  - HarHarVeryFunny 4mo ago
    But it actually had the exact opposite effect. First the US blocked China from buying NVIDIA's H100, but allowed NVIDIA to sell them a China-special nerfed H100, the H800 Then the US blocked the H800 Then the US realized that China was indeed accelerating their US independence, so does a U-turn and has now approved the H200 (more powerful than both the H100 and H800) for sale to China, on a case-by-case basis However - and here is the real kicker - China themselves are now blocking H200 purchases since they want the acceleration towards Chinese homegrown solutions to continue, and now we have Chinese models being served on Huawei Ascend chips, with next generation Ascend 750 chips (using CXMT made memory) targetting training currently in testing. Now we have Apple asking the US government for permission to buy memory from CXMT given the global shortage!
    - aspenmartin 4mo ago
      The Jensen argument that "oh we get them hooked on our technology and that will actually be better" is bullshit -- they would do the exact same thing they're doing now of building their own supply chains and compute power but be able to accelerate their progress in the meantime with US chips. It is worse in every way to sell them SOTA chips (or even previous generation chips). Of course they have ways around this -- you can get black market GPUs and also API costs are SUPER cheap there -- they hack the subscription model, bundle a bunch of user accounts, and route API requests through them. And yes they are getting to parity with US technology and will get there in a few years, they have decent chips but still not the quality of NVIDIA. It's really a very complex situation