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The most interesting thing about SpaceX is how it convinced a lot of otherwise sober people that data centers in space was a $50 septillion addressable market.

by jquery 3mo ago

The most interesting thing about SpaceX is how it convinced a lot of otherwise sober people that data centers in space was a $50 septillion addressable market. You might laugh and think I’m joking but a lot of people seriously fell for the nonsense in the public filing, which should’ve been a one way ticket to SEC jail.

grosswait 3mo ago
Let’s revisit this comment in 5 years. I’m not convinced HN critics know more about this than SpaceX does.
- GMoromisato 3mo ago
  What I find silly is the certainty that critics have that SpaceX will fail. No one can predict the future, and it's absolutely possible that orbital datacenters will fail (either for technology or business reasons). But: 1. Without a time machine, we cannot be certain. 2. If forced to choose, I would rather root for their success and be wrong than root for their failure and be right.
  - WalterBright 3mo ago
    What I find silly is the certainty that critics have that SpaceX will fail. When I started my own business, everyone thought it was doomed to failure. Friends, enemies, acquaintances, all of them. Except my dad. He believed in me, though he had no idea what I was doing. Musk is in good company with the crazy people who build the first tunnel under the Thames, the nuts who laid the first transatlantic people, the morons who dug the Panama Canal, and the fools who built the first transcontinental railroad. Me, I bought me some SPCX.
    - DangitBobby 3mo ago
      A bit strange that you started you comment with the exact same sentence as the previous commenter.
      - GMoromisato 3mo ago
        They're just quoting it but typo'ed the > I was confused at first too.
        WalterBright 3mo ago
        Yup. I've done that before.
  - DangitBobby 3mo ago
    Unless SpaceX knows something about thermodynamics that no one else knows, we can be pretty fucking sure that they have an incompetent mouthpiece or they are committing securities fraud.
    - GMoromisato 3mo ago
      I'm not sure I get it. Obviously, computers can work in space--a Starlink satellite is basically a computer with a radio attached. Satellites use radiators for cooling without violating any laws of physics. I assume you think that SpaceX will never be able to build/deploy a radiator big enough? But that's not a physics/thermodynamics question, that's an engineering question. And I think SpaceX has some pretty good engineers. Help me out and tell me how you can be so sure it will never work.
      - jquery 3mo ago
        You could also launch people from LA to NYC via rockets instead of using airplanes without violating any laws of physics. But we don’t, because we have airplanes already. What problem are data centers in space solving? Cooling is probably the hardest issue to deal with for data centers, so why would you give up convective cooling you get for free on Earth? I don’t know why you’re jumping from starlink to data centers in space. The utility of satellite internet has been known for decades before Starlink came around.
        GMoromisato 3mo ago
        That's a different argument. You agree that space data centers are physically possible, but you just don't think they will be economical (i.e., cheaper than terrestrial data centers). Is that right? I don't know if they will be economical. But that will depend on a whole bunch of questions that nobody knows the answer to: How will the demand for AI grow? How much will opposition to terrestrial data centers increase the price? How cheaply can SpaceX launch mass? How cheaply can SpaceX build data center satelliters? Maybe you know all those answers. If so, I envy your stock portfolio.
  - shigawire 3mo ago
    I have a certainty that I don't want to make a bet predicated on SpaceX needing to generate revenue from their AI products that is equivalent to several thousand dollars for every human in a middle income and up country. I'd bet in SpaceX. I'll not bet on musk grafting in a failing AI business for financial shenanigans.
WalterBright 3mo ago
When the first transcontinental railroad was proposed and being built, it was beset with controversy and skepticism. But when it opened, it exceeded the wildest expectations of its most optimistic boosters. It transformed the country overnight. A similar thing happened with the first transatlantic cable.
- DangitBobby 3mo ago
  Transcontinental railroads weren't fighting against physics. There's a reason people are pretty sure it won't work and it's not the difficulty of getting them into space or maintening them space or generally protecting them from space. Of course, those are all considerations as well. No, it's the cooling. https://taranis.ie/datacenters-in-space-are-a-terrible-horrible-no-good-idea/ https://taranis.ie/datacenters-in-space-are-a-terrible-horri...
  - WalterBright 3mo ago
    > cooling I've seen many confident assertions about that issue. Do you think Musk doesn't know about it? People thought you couldn't reuse rockets, either. Or land them on their tails. Or pluck them out of the air with chopsticks.
    - shigawire 3mo ago
      I'm a different guy... But I think he doesn't care and doesn't need to care. His main product is personal branding and hype -- caring about how it works is hardly relevant.
    - anonymars 3mo ago
      Or launch atop an unprotected flat slab of concrete
- AnimalMuppet 3mo ago
  The Union Pacific Railroad (the eastern half of the transcontinental railroad) also caused the financial crisis of 1873 (due to construction costs and various corruption and bribery around financing them). It then went bankrupt in 1893. So, yes, it transformed the country. That didn't necessarily benefit the stockholders and bondholders.
microgpt 3mo ago
It's just money laundering. They hide transfers of wealth inside an IPO, buyback etc and tell ludicrous tales so they have a cover story that investors are investing because they believed the tales and not to move money.

by jquery 3mo ago

grosswait 3mo ago

Let’s revisit this comment in 5 years. I’m not convinced HN critics know more about this than SpaceX does.

GMoromisato 3mo ago
What I find silly is the certainty that critics have that SpaceX will fail. No one can predict the future, and it's absolutely possible that orbital datacenters will fail (either for technology or business reasons). But: 1. Without a time machine, we cannot be certain. 2. If forced to choose, I would rather root for their success and be wrong than root for their failure and be right.
- WalterBright 3mo ago
  What I find silly is the certainty that critics have that SpaceX will fail. When I started my own business, everyone thought it was doomed to failure. Friends, enemies, acquaintances, all of them. Except my dad. He believed in me, though he had no idea what I was doing. Musk is in good company with the crazy people who build the first tunnel under the Thames, the nuts who laid the first transatlantic people, the morons who dug the Panama Canal, and the fools who built the first transcontinental railroad. Me, I bought me some SPCX.
  - DangitBobby 3mo ago
    A bit strange that you started you comment with the exact same sentence as the previous commenter.
    - GMoromisato 3mo ago
      They're just quoting it but typo'ed the > I was confused at first too.
      - WalterBright 3mo ago
        Yup. I've done that before.
- DangitBobby 3mo ago
  Unless SpaceX knows something about thermodynamics that no one else knows, we can be pretty fucking sure that they have an incompetent mouthpiece or they are committing securities fraud.
  - GMoromisato 3mo ago
    I'm not sure I get it. Obviously, computers can work in space--a Starlink satellite is basically a computer with a radio attached. Satellites use radiators for cooling without violating any laws of physics. I assume you think that SpaceX will never be able to build/deploy a radiator big enough? But that's not a physics/thermodynamics question, that's an engineering question. And I think SpaceX has some pretty good engineers. Help me out and tell me how you can be so sure it will never work.
    - jquery 3mo ago
      You could also launch people from LA to NYC via rockets instead of using airplanes without violating any laws of physics. But we don’t, because we have airplanes already. What problem are data centers in space solving? Cooling is probably the hardest issue to deal with for data centers, so why would you give up convective cooling you get for free on Earth? I don’t know why you’re jumping from starlink to data centers in space. The utility of satellite internet has been known for decades before Starlink came around.
      - GMoromisato 3mo ago
        That's a different argument. You agree that space data centers are physically possible, but you just don't think they will be economical (i.e., cheaper than terrestrial data centers). Is that right? I don't know if they will be economical. But that will depend on a whole bunch of questions that nobody knows the answer to: How will the demand for AI grow? How much will opposition to terrestrial data centers increase the price? How cheaply can SpaceX launch mass? How cheaply can SpaceX build data center satelliters? Maybe you know all those answers. If so, I envy your stock portfolio.
- shigawire 3mo ago
  I have a certainty that I don't want to make a bet predicated on SpaceX needing to generate revenue from their AI products that is equivalent to several thousand dollars for every human in a middle income and up country. I'd bet in SpaceX. I'll not bet on musk grafting in a failing AI business for financial shenanigans.

WalterBright 3mo ago

When the first transcontinental railroad was proposed and being built, it was beset with controversy and skepticism. But when it opened, it exceeded the wildest expectations of its most optimistic boosters. It transformed the country overnight. A similar thing happened with the first transatlantic cable.

DangitBobby 3mo ago
Transcontinental railroads weren't fighting against physics. There's a reason people are pretty sure it won't work and it's not the difficulty of getting them into space or maintening them space or generally protecting them from space. Of course, those are all considerations as well. No, it's the cooling. https://taranis.ie/datacenters-in-space-are-a-terrible-horrible-no-good-idea/ https://taranis.ie/datacenters-in-space-are-a-terrible-horri...
- WalterBright 3mo ago
  > cooling I've seen many confident assertions about that issue. Do you think Musk doesn't know about it? People thought you couldn't reuse rockets, either. Or land them on their tails. Or pluck them out of the air with chopsticks.
  - shigawire 3mo ago
    I'm a different guy... But I think he doesn't care and doesn't need to care. His main product is personal branding and hype -- caring about how it works is hardly relevant.
  - anonymars 3mo ago
    Or launch atop an unprotected flat slab of concrete
AnimalMuppet 3mo ago
The Union Pacific Railroad (the eastern half of the transcontinental railroad) also caused the financial crisis of 1873 (due to construction costs and various corruption and bribery around financing them). It then went bankrupt in 1893. So, yes, it transformed the country. That didn't necessarily benefit the stockholders and bondholders.

microgpt 3mo ago

It's just money laundering. They hide transfers of wealth inside an IPO, buyback etc and tell ludicrous tales so they have a cover story that investors are investing because they believed the tales and not to move money.