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As far as Europe is concerned they have recently signed up to the 'Pax Silica'[1] and willingly givrn the LLM space over to the US incumbents with buildtin le
by rzerowan 4mo ago
As far as Europe is concerned they have recently signed up to the 'Pax Silica'[1] and willingly givrn the LLM space over to the US incumbents with buildtin legislation banning Chinese models and coperation with them.
So EU will be a renter of the LLMs that the US allows them to use.
In the long run OpenSource will dominate as it did in the DB(MySQL/Postgres)/ServerOS(Linux/BSDs) versus Proprietery rent seeking alts like Oracle and Microsoft et al.
Would be interesting to see what the global startups using Qwen/DS/Kimi etc within the EU-US space navigate the cutting edge OpenSource LLMs vs seeking/getting a permission slip from the US gov.
[1]https://archive.is/aiJiq https://archive.is/aiJiq
- jdkee 4mo agoeurope2031.ai
- CalRobert 4mo agoWas looking for this. It’s a great short story (it starts with real events and then predicts the future) leading to European fealty to US . Seems increasingly plausible.
- pydry 4mo agoEuropean fealty to the US has existed for decades.
- specproc 4mo agoNumber one issue of our times. I'm eternally frustrated discussion of this basic fact of our political lives is near zero in public discourse.
- embedding-shape 4mo agoWhere you live? In both Spain and Sweden it's a fairly common topic in public discourse already, about how to move away from a bunch of US dependencies and so on.
- specproc 4mo agoIn the 51st state.
- embedding-shape 4mo agoAh, so just your average HN eurobashing not based in any reality. Cheers for confirming :)
- CalRobert 4mo ago... Ireland?
- jurgenburgen 4mo agoAlso in Finland and even in EU circles. Trump threatening to annex Greenland really woke up a lot of people. Tariffs didn’t help. Even my parents who speak no English and aren’t spending time in US-based social media have taken a break from hating Russia for the Ukraine invasion to talking about how we need to get rid of the dependency on the US. This boat is turning slowly but it won’t turn back anymore.
- pydry 4mo ago[flagged]
- mopsi 4mo agoThere was nothing "American-led" about the fact that societies that had been forced by Russia into submission for the entirety of the Cold War rushed toward whatever alliances they could to prevent the same thing from ever happening again. Poland even threatened to mobilize the Polish-Americans to tank Clinton's re-election if he tried to block Poland's entry into NATO, that's how "American-led" it was. Not to mention how ridiculous the narrative of "provocation" is, I can almost hear "provokatsiya, provokatsiya" in Putin's weak and whiny old-man voice. Entry into NATO meant that NATO spent billions upon billions introducing proper civilian oversight of militaries in the new members, and other key features of first world countries. Former RU foreign minister Kozyrev hits the nail when he calls it free security for Russia.
- coffeebeqn 4mo agoSince the US entered WW2
- port11 4mo agoI think you’ll find that it was mutually beneficial deal that traded soft-power for preferential agreements. As it started to crumble, we’ve begun diversifying and directed our schmoozing to better partners.
- CalRobert 4mo agoTrue, but it was, until 2008, a somewhat less lopsided relationship. Europe is becoming a museum and a retirement home. Young people leave to make their fortune and maybe return to have a family or avail of healthcare. And while I have nothing against old people my own street in a _very_ family-oriented suburb in the Netherlands is over 50% retirees. Though I see the flow of migrants between the US and Europe has shifted, so there's a net gain of Americans in Europe. I wonder if it's where young people with dreams want to go, or if it's just where people like my in-laws (nice, culturally aware, but no longer very economically productive) who have a few million dollars in their 40's and want a pretty place to retire young, go.
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- aniviacat 4mo ago> [Washington] piles pressure on The Hague to halt ASML’s remaining exports and servicing of its DUVi machines. > The Commission backs the Dutch [...]. The European position fragments before it has properly formed. That the EU would, after recognizing AI's value, freely give up control of its few advantages to the US, despite of this being a conventional trade issue which the EU has experience with, seems like a very pessimistic assumption. (I stopped reading after that part.)
- tadasv 4mo agoI hope that open models will dominate. The difficult part to reconcile for me is the amount of compute that's required to create and run such models. Small models are fine, I run local llms 27b param on a gpu, but it's not even close to frontier in capability. Who wants to drop $40k+ on hardware to run these things. Companies, maybe/perhapts. On the other hand, to run a DB I can get a server for $3k and handle tons of traffic on it and other things too.
- Avicebron 4mo agoHas anyone tried to run a data center as a Co-Op?
- rzerowan 4mo agoWould actually be a good biz model for the Colo facilities that keep shutting down as everyone moves to the big cloud providers.Now if they can get their hands on enough GPUs and RAM.
- eru 4mo agoWhy would it be a good business model?
- danielheath 4mo agoI think it aligns incentives way better (but is almost impossible to set up).
- eru 4mo agoIncentives are pretty easy to align, if you have repeat customers and repetition. McDonald's sells me burgers I expect at a reasonable price, because they want me to come back tomorrow and not go across the street to Burger King.
- orbifold 4mo agocan you give examples of colo facilities in SF / New York that are shutting down?
- hsuduebc2 4mo agoThis is beyond ridiculous. At the same historical turning point when Europeans are finally waking up to the need to become less dependent on their so called US ally for weapons production and security, they are immediately choosing to become dependent on the next layer of critical infrastructure. Instead of learning the obvious lesson, Europe seems ready to purchase the future from whoever Washington allows it to purchase from. It used to be the guns, now it's the AI. It is so idiotic and short sighted that you can barely even blame anyone who keeps exploiting this over and over again. It is always the same story.
- WarmWash 4mo agoEurope has been burning furniture to keep the house warm for so long that an entire generation now thinks that chopping wood is for suckers.
- diordiderot 4mo agoChopping wood is for suckers. Half your woodpile will get redistributed to strangers who just moved in down the road.
- hsuduebc2 4mo agoWell this is not really a problem as big as it is presented on the social media. Stats simply do not support these claims. The bigger issue is the growing number of retired woodworkers collecting pensions for much longer than the system was ever designed for. Life expectancy rose dramatically, yet the retirement age not. These retired woodworkers then vote for politicians who keep increasing their benefits, while costs are cut elsewhere. Add a declining birthrate, a trend started by previous generations, and you get a system that is politically almost impossible to reform. It will probably take a very hard societal crash before people seriously reconsider this old, inefficient model. Like in Greece, where pensions were cut on third of it's original size. Sadly, woodworkers never learn other way than this. With ever present threat of war on the old continent because some woodworking tribes just can't supress their need to chop someone else, this is the biggest long term issue.
- huflungdung 4mo ago[dead]
- swiftcoder 4mo agoThey have signed a non-binding agreement to potentially cooperate on AI supply chains. It's hardly a declaration of fealty, nor does it have any practical impact on the use of Chinese models in the near term. I'd view this more as hedging their bets for the future.
- Matl 4mo ago> It's hardly a declaration of fealty As a European, the way I see it, Europe declared fealty to the US and relinquished its sovereignty a long time ago, sadly. Also, the way these agreements tend to work is that you agree that you won't source from the 'enemy side' i.e. China. It works this way for NATO and it will work the same way here.
- fauigerzigerk 4mo ago>As a European, the way I see it, Europe declared fealty to the US and relinquished its sovereignty a long time ago, sadly. No such declaration was ever made. Europe has just failed to compete.
- joe_mamba 4mo agoEU didn't fail because it never even tried. Nobody in EU ever tried to build a domestic CPU that was even remotely comparable to what Intel and AMD, for them to have had the opportunity to fail.(No, ARM is IP not a builder) Nobody in EU ever tried to build a domestic GPU that was even remotely comparable to Nvidia, ATI or 3Dfx for them to have failed. We just let the US companies fight it out, see who could build the best products, and become forever customers to them and then 20 year later wonder how come their economy grew 2x as much.
- fauigerzigerk 4mo ago>EU didn't fail because it never even tried. Of course the EU tries to compete with the US and in some industries it has done so successfully (e.g pharma or aviation). EU companies have also tried to compete in information technology - with some limited or temporary success. ARM was founded in the EU. DeepMind was founded in the EU. Olivetti and Siemens had CPU designs and made computers. Nokia once dominated mobile. Ericsson was/is a leading telecom equipment maker. Skype used to be one of the most successful messaging apps. Spotify is a success. ASML is a success. A certain Finnish university student started the operating system that now dominates the cloud, but for some reason I really do not understand, EU cloud providers like OVHCloud have failed to compete with the likes of AWS, Azure and GCP. And now the AI wave has completely washed over Europe. The cloud situation is a mystery to me. Nothing stops EU companies like OVHCloud from competing there. Any anticompetitive behaviour is a very weak excuse. Europe can't even compete with something as mediocre as Palantir. Now everyone is calling for protectionism. Ridiculous. AI is easier to understand. It requires huge capital investments. The US has far superior capital markets and far healthier attitudes towards risk taking. Europe's failure here was easy to predict but the consequences could be dire.
- tarsinge 4mo agoIt doesn’t look like "the EU" has signed anything, just that a couple EU countries independently accepted to join the summit.
- Szpadel 4mo agobig misconception open source != open weights open weights model is like... Winamp for example. it's free, you can download it and use it however you like, you could also do some binary patching or dll injections to alter it functionality but it's not enough to develop next version. the same is with ai models, weights are the binary final artifacts. for development and improvements you need to have training data, pipelines, RL harnesses, etc. also of you believe Chinese companies will be releasing weights indefinitely, you are not understanding motivations. Chinese companies spend significant amounts of money to train a model so why they are releasing it for free? they basically provide researchers starting point for developing tooling and optimizations for serving the model in return. and also get some PR. They also do not have to pay for inference of those models that much, as they probably serve them with loss anyways to gain market. they are gov sponsored so money are not issue there, so they try to speedrun their way to what US companies have. And guess what happens when they reach it. they will stop releasing weights and increase pricing or will use them for gov purposes.
- postepowanieadm 4mo agoGermany and Netherlands signed alone, not as EU block.