3 ms·

Let's put it this way, how much is 5% productivity bump worth to you? If you're in the US and you're making 100k a year, that's worth 5k or $416/m. So you can

by bko 4mo ago

Let's put it this way, how much is 5% productivity bump worth to you? If you're in the US and you're making 100k a year, that's worth 5k or $416/m. So you can buy two of the most expensive plans on the frontier models. This focus on cost optimization is insane. Just use the frontier models. Even a marginal bump is worth whatever the hell they're charging, at least for now.

bombcar 4mo ago
The problem is it might be worth it to the company, but likely not to you - a 5% productivity bump likely results in $100k a year.
- paytonjjones 4mo ago
  You really think there's zero correlation between productivity and wages? Sure, it's noisy and you might stay at $100k or even get fired. But I'd say the expected wage value of 5% higher productivity on a large sample is at least 3.5% or so.
cwillu 4mo ago
Companies aren't paying for tokens so that their employees can capture the gains.
- wbl 4mo ago
  The one man and the dog at the Carolina spinning factory earn far more than their equivalents in Birmingham.
bruce343434 4mo ago
Everyone else will be 5% more productive. Then no one is "more" productive. So everyone has a higher output, but the same wages and hours worked. There was only a gap when usable AI first came out, some contractors could do the same quantity of work in less time and enjoy time off or do more jobs. Now the gap has closed or is closing. And using AI now is more about not being less productive than peers who do use it.
- paytonjjones 4mo ago
  That's not how productivity works. It's not a zero-sum game. If all construction workers can build houses 5% more efficiently, that's not the same as nothing changing. Depending on supply and demand, it means 5% more houses are built, or houses are 5% cheaper, or maybe 5% bigger, or some combination. Whether or not the construction workers all get a raise or 5% get fired (or both) depends on that supply and demand, but historically they often get a piece of the growing economic pie.
  - bruce343434 4mo ago
    Why would the company pay more when they can just not pay more? The only things I can see happening is they might lower prices as competition ramps up, or in general as there is more supply for the same cost.
    - paytonjjones 4mo ago
      If there's sufficient demand, that's just what happens. To try and explain one path: Company A doesn't raise wages but makes 5% more money. Company B pivots from Industry B into construction (because suddenly construction is having 5% fatter margins), and hires workers at more competitive wages to poach them from Company A. Company A forces to raise wages. If there's a demand ceiling on housing it's a different story though.
      - Snowfield9571 4mo ago
        More like company B purchases a construction company and changes nothing but number go up for shareholders while wages stay stagnant for people producing actual value, as they have for decades.
    - haaz 4mo ago
      If labour supply is fixed and productivity goes up then the value and demand for labour goes up, driving up wages
rolls-reus 4mo ago
large companies aren’t buying subscription plans. my org has a 2k per month token budget per person and starting to explore optimizations like automatic model routing.
shimman 4mo ago
There is no evidence that these tools provide a 5% bump, if anything they are providing a 20% liability (pulling random numbers is fun). Also where is the evidence that the workers have ever benefited from productivity bumps? The only thing that happens is surplus gets captured by the owners while workers are forced to do more. Bad deal all around.
free_bip 4mo ago
You're saying this like I would see that 5k in my bank account. If I'm 5% more productive that probably wouldn't even make it into annual review, let alone pay.

by bko 4mo ago

bombcar 4mo ago

The problem is it might be worth it to the company, but likely not to you - a 5% productivity bump likely results in $100k a year.

paytonjjones 4mo ago
You really think there's zero correlation between productivity and wages? Sure, it's noisy and you might stay at $100k or even get fired. But I'd say the expected wage value of 5% higher productivity on a large sample is at least 3.5% or so.

cwillu 4mo ago

Companies aren't paying for tokens so that their employees can capture the gains.

wbl 4mo ago
The one man and the dog at the Carolina spinning factory earn far more than their equivalents in Birmingham.

bruce343434 4mo ago

Everyone else will be 5% more productive. Then no one is "more" productive. So everyone has a higher output, but the same wages and hours worked. There was only a gap when usable AI first came out, some contractors could do the same quantity of work in less time and enjoy time off or do more jobs. Now the gap has closed or is closing. And using AI now is more about not being less productive than peers who do use it.

paytonjjones 4mo ago
That's not how productivity works. It's not a zero-sum game. If all construction workers can build houses 5% more efficiently, that's not the same as nothing changing. Depending on supply and demand, it means 5% more houses are built, or houses are 5% cheaper, or maybe 5% bigger, or some combination. Whether or not the construction workers all get a raise or 5% get fired (or both) depends on that supply and demand, but historically they often get a piece of the growing economic pie.
- bruce343434 4mo ago
  Why would the company pay more when they can just not pay more? The only things I can see happening is they might lower prices as competition ramps up, or in general as there is more supply for the same cost.
  - paytonjjones 4mo ago
    If there's sufficient demand, that's just what happens. To try and explain one path: Company A doesn't raise wages but makes 5% more money. Company B pivots from Industry B into construction (because suddenly construction is having 5% fatter margins), and hires workers at more competitive wages to poach them from Company A. Company A forces to raise wages. If there's a demand ceiling on housing it's a different story though.
    - Snowfield9571 4mo ago
      More like company B purchases a construction company and changes nothing but number go up for shareholders while wages stay stagnant for people producing actual value, as they have for decades.
  - haaz 4mo ago
    If labour supply is fixed and productivity goes up then the value and demand for labour goes up, driving up wages

rolls-reus 4mo ago

large companies aren’t buying subscription plans. my org has a 2k per month token budget per person and starting to explore optimizations like automatic model routing.

shimman 4mo ago

There is no evidence that these tools provide a 5% bump, if anything they are providing a 20% liability (pulling random numbers is fun). Also where is the evidence that the workers have ever benefited from productivity bumps? The only thing that happens is surplus gets captured by the owners while workers are forced to do more. Bad deal all around.

free_bip 4mo ago

You're saying this like I would see that 5k in my bank account. If I'm 5% more productive that probably wouldn't even make it into annual review, let alone pay.