3 ms·

It’s so wild to me to make a multiyear purchasing decision based upon recent events. My next car will be an EV not suggesting it’s a bad decision however I’m st

It’s so wild to me to make a multiyear purchasing decision based upon recent events. My next car will be an EV not suggesting it’s a bad decision however I’m still blown away by statistics like this.

firegodjr 4mo ago
I'm well aware things can change, but having my everyday commute costs generally decoupled from geopolitics seems nice
- Gibbon1 4mo ago
  Yeah buying an EV instead of a gas car is a hedge that doesn't cost much. There is an asymmetry in the upside and downside risk. The downside risk is all on gas with no upside. No downside for the EV.
2muchtime 4mo ago
The thing is a lot of people might be right at the tipping point of buying an EV and then some news like this comes out and it pushes them over the line. I feel EVs at this moment are right at the level of “I’m gonna buy a new car, but maybe I’ll wait for the one after before I jump into an EV”. Better batteries (solid state), better charging speeds and more fast charger availability seem to have a large group of people waiting.
- jimnotgym 4mo ago
  Renault seems to have made a sensibly priced range with some classic styles too. Familiar cars but with EV, rather than early adopter cars like the Nissan Leaf or weird tech bro cars.
  - vrganj 4mo ago
    The Renault 5 is selling like crazy. Makes sense why, reasonable price, good design, made in Europe EV. It's what a lot of people have been waiting for.
    - deeringc 4mo ago
      You're not wrong - I see about 10 of these a day driving around. And that's a car model that is only about a year old. It's selling like hot cakes.
  - Haven880 4mo ago
    Ghosn was right. Japanese did him dirty and Nissan collapsed as a result.
- seanmcdirmid 4mo ago
  It’s not a bad idea. I bought in 2022 and the range of newer EVs is already a lot more than mine. But I really enjoy my car and don’t have much pressure to take so many roadtrips. What I can’t see doing is buying a new ICE now. If you just want something to hold you over a few years, buy used or lease.
- cicko 4mo ago
  That makes no sense to me. I've had an EV for five years and right now the infrastructure is fantastic in comparison. There are chargers everywhere, they're fast enough, and the prices are reasonable. The batteries are also quite large. I see absolutely no reason to buy an IC car any more. Many people have solar panels installed, making the commute practically free.
  - NoLinkToMe 4mo ago
    I think at the upper range, and for Teslas, this is true. But for the rest, not quite yet. Suppose you buy an entry-level Renault 5, the WLTP range is 310km. In mild conditions you typically get 85-90% of that, enough for the majority of people. But in winter you get 65% of that, so 195km, on a new battery. And after 5 years that may be 165km in winter, and that's just not great. With home-charging that still is enough for most requirements, but you are more restricted for longer trips and have to charge diligently. I live in an apartment so I wouldn't be home-charging daily, there'd be plenty of times I'd want to park my car at the first available spot in my area at 55% charge and use it the next day, which is even more restrictive. For the entry-level Tesla the WLTP range is 530km or 70% more. There the problem is much less. And for home-chargers, it's also a no-brainer usually, especially with home solar. But for an apartment-dweller who just needs an entry-level car, it's still a toss-up between a new EV like a renault 5 for 30k, or just a Toyota Corolla Hybrid that gets great mileage, low maintenance and can be had new for 30k or a few years old for 20k. Unfortunately, I refuse to buy a Tesla due to Musk's politics.
    - cicko 3mo ago
      Mate, I too live in an apartment and have had Zoe 41kWh (Type2-only) for several years. I've been through all that, including several 900+km trips. It's not as bad as it sounds. I'll reiterate - with CCS you don't really worry about charging. Those 310km is enough for over 80% of anyone's trips. The guy who bought 9yr-old Zoe drove away 278km with 28km left when he got home. Recently I've got a Cupra Born with 77kWh and couldn't care less about the charging infrastructure anymore. It's just a regular car at this point. Charging on the street is even more practical than driving to the nearest petrol station.
dgellow 4mo ago
Pretty frustrating that so many people have to face the actual crisis to actually react to it. And that’s the case in so many situations
Jtsummers 4mo ago
It moves up people's purchasing plans. If you were expecting to replace your vehicle in the next two years because of performance degradation, and now your fuel costs are substantially higher, then a purchase today might make more sense than your original plan.
- nielsbot 4mo ago
  Of even if people are just considering and EV as compared to an ICE car they may think "you know what, who knows when fuel prices will come down? maybe I just switch now!"
pyrale 4mo ago
> It’s so wild to me to make a multiyear purchasing decision based upon recent events. Recent events? Russia going rogue and the US going haywire both happened a decade ago at least. Those are two major suppliers of fossil fuel for Europe. The current trend was bound to happen, it only required time for the industry to pivot.
- praxulus 4mo ago
  We're commenting on the fact that demand has surged in the last few months. Russian and American behavior from a decade ago didn't (directly) cause that.
  - dylan604 4mo ago
    There was definitely a build up. Trump was held back from being Trump in the first term. Even with that, there was no recourse for any of the actions that he took. There were also the court decisions that happened in between terms. So this term, he naturally feels no need to hold back. It is unlikely this Trump term would happen had his first not happened.
  - pyrale 4mo ago
    > Russian and American behavior from a decade ago didn't (directly) cause that. No, but it did cause changes that made it possible for people to change their habits when the current crisis hit them.
- axus 4mo ago
  Recent consequences, the events began long ago :)
gonzalohm 4mo ago
I think this is people that were thinking of getting an EV anyway and they decided to do it earlier
ReactiveJelly 4mo ago
I bought one because I had a feeling that the price of used EVs was about to shoot up
askvictor 4mo ago
This also coincides with EVs becoming better and cheaper
davis 4mo ago
> based upon recent events Climate change has been in the zeitgeist for decades now. Pretty sure many people are cognizant of this and want to move away from fossil fuels. This is just a boost to do so.
- dmix 4mo ago
  That and governments pushing to ban non-EV cars over a certain timeline while subsidizing more expensive EVs. The most important thing right now in addition to fuel prices is how much cheaper EVs are getting because of innovation in China.
  - netsharc 4mo ago
    Interesting point, I wonder why governments haven't planted the idea in buyers that ICE cars will be getting more expensive to own (e.g. through taxes) in the coming 5-10 years. Then the thought of buying an ICE car now will also be less attractive because people know they won't be worth much in the 2nd hand market in 5-10 years. But I suppose I see the answer, it's because of the car manufacturers employing many EU voters (in particular in Germany which is the 400kg gorilla in the EU), no government wants to piss off their voters.
    - Symbiote 4mo ago
      It's not as direct as a future tax, but ICE cars have been gradually made less useful in many EU countries including Germany and France. You can't drive one into the centre of Paris, and older ICE cars are banned from the centre of larger German cities. Even people who never go to these cities know it reduces the second hand value.
sampton 4mo ago
What is there to not understand. Given large enough population there's always someone ready to update.
cromka 4mo ago
> It’s so wild to me to make a multiyear purchasing decision based upon recent events. Even wilder to project other peoples decisions so naively
belviewreview 4mo ago
"make a multiyear purchasing decision based upon recent events" You have this all backwards. The fact is that for many decades petroleum is an unreliable energy source due to geopolitical factors, but people have been pretending that was not the case. What has happened in the last two months is people have finally realized the long-term truth.
solumunus 4mo ago
Oil usage being subject to supply shocks is nothing new, it’s completely inevitable. Moving to renewables is an obvious upgrade, this recent crisis is just bringing that into the light for folk.
NoLinkToMe 4mo ago
It's more like the recent events trigger people's awareness and learning about multi-year trends that are happening regardless of recent events. EVs are a good deal in much of the world. They're more quiet, lower maintenance costs, lower fuel costs, therefore lower cost of ownership and operation. And they have less volatile costs as electricity prices swing less than gas prices. Long-term trends show electricity and gas prices decouple. It's just that every time gas prices spike, people look into solutions and find out these truths.
acdha 4mo ago
EVs have been better for ~90% of the driving most people do for a decade, but a lot of people held back because they fixated on things like epic road trips or needing to haul many sheets of plywood. What a price shock does is force people to acknowledge how much money they’ve been spending on edge-cases, making many of them reconsider how much it’s really worth to, for example, go on an all-day drive without every stopping for more than a few minutes or whether the SUV/pickup truck aesthetic is worth paying 50% more every day.

firegodjr 4mo ago

I'm well aware things can change, but having my everyday commute costs generally decoupled from geopolitics seems nice

Gibbon1 4mo ago
Yeah buying an EV instead of a gas car is a hedge that doesn't cost much. There is an asymmetry in the upside and downside risk. The downside risk is all on gas with no upside. No downside for the EV.

2muchtime 4mo ago

The thing is a lot of people might be right at the tipping point of buying an EV and then some news like this comes out and it pushes them over the line. I feel EVs at this moment are right at the level of “I’m gonna buy a new car, but maybe I’ll wait for the one after before I jump into an EV”. Better batteries (solid state), better charging speeds and more fast charger availability seem to have a large group of people waiting.

jimnotgym 4mo ago
Renault seems to have made a sensibly priced range with some classic styles too. Familiar cars but with EV, rather than early adopter cars like the Nissan Leaf or weird tech bro cars.
- vrganj 4mo ago
  The Renault 5 is selling like crazy. Makes sense why, reasonable price, good design, made in Europe EV. It's what a lot of people have been waiting for.
  - deeringc 4mo ago
    You're not wrong - I see about 10 of these a day driving around. And that's a car model that is only about a year old. It's selling like hot cakes.
- Haven880 4mo ago
  Ghosn was right. Japanese did him dirty and Nissan collapsed as a result.
seanmcdirmid 4mo ago
It’s not a bad idea. I bought in 2022 and the range of newer EVs is already a lot more than mine. But I really enjoy my car and don’t have much pressure to take so many roadtrips. What I can’t see doing is buying a new ICE now. If you just want something to hold you over a few years, buy used or lease.
cicko 4mo ago
That makes no sense to me. I've had an EV for five years and right now the infrastructure is fantastic in comparison. There are chargers everywhere, they're fast enough, and the prices are reasonable. The batteries are also quite large. I see absolutely no reason to buy an IC car any more. Many people have solar panels installed, making the commute practically free.
- NoLinkToMe 4mo ago
  I think at the upper range, and for Teslas, this is true. But for the rest, not quite yet. Suppose you buy an entry-level Renault 5, the WLTP range is 310km. In mild conditions you typically get 85-90% of that, enough for the majority of people. But in winter you get 65% of that, so 195km, on a new battery. And after 5 years that may be 165km in winter, and that's just not great. With home-charging that still is enough for most requirements, but you are more restricted for longer trips and have to charge diligently. I live in an apartment so I wouldn't be home-charging daily, there'd be plenty of times I'd want to park my car at the first available spot in my area at 55% charge and use it the next day, which is even more restrictive. For the entry-level Tesla the WLTP range is 530km or 70% more. There the problem is much less. And for home-chargers, it's also a no-brainer usually, especially with home solar. But for an apartment-dweller who just needs an entry-level car, it's still a toss-up between a new EV like a renault 5 for 30k, or just a Toyota Corolla Hybrid that gets great mileage, low maintenance and can be had new for 30k or a few years old for 20k. Unfortunately, I refuse to buy a Tesla due to Musk's politics.
  - cicko 3mo ago
    Mate, I too live in an apartment and have had Zoe 41kWh (Type2-only) for several years. I've been through all that, including several 900+km trips. It's not as bad as it sounds. I'll reiterate - with CCS you don't really worry about charging. Those 310km is enough for over 80% of anyone's trips. The guy who bought 9yr-old Zoe drove away 278km with 28km left when he got home. Recently I've got a Cupra Born with 77kWh and couldn't care less about the charging infrastructure anymore. It's just a regular car at this point. Charging on the street is even more practical than driving to the nearest petrol station.

dgellow 4mo ago

Pretty frustrating that so many people have to face the actual crisis to actually react to it. And that’s the case in so many situations

Jtsummers 4mo ago

It moves up people's purchasing plans. If you were expecting to replace your vehicle in the next two years because of performance degradation, and now your fuel costs are substantially higher, then a purchase today might make more sense than your original plan.

nielsbot 4mo ago
Of even if people are just considering and EV as compared to an ICE car they may think "you know what, who knows when fuel prices will come down? maybe I just switch now!"

pyrale 4mo ago

> It’s so wild to me to make a multiyear purchasing decision based upon recent events. Recent events? Russia going rogue and the US going haywire both happened a decade ago at least. Those are two major suppliers of fossil fuel for Europe. The current trend was bound to happen, it only required time for the industry to pivot.

praxulus 4mo ago
We're commenting on the fact that demand has surged in the last few months. Russian and American behavior from a decade ago didn't (directly) cause that.
- dylan604 4mo ago
  There was definitely a build up. Trump was held back from being Trump in the first term. Even with that, there was no recourse for any of the actions that he took. There were also the court decisions that happened in between terms. So this term, he naturally feels no need to hold back. It is unlikely this Trump term would happen had his first not happened.
- pyrale 4mo ago
  > Russian and American behavior from a decade ago didn't (directly) cause that. No, but it did cause changes that made it possible for people to change their habits when the current crisis hit them.
axus 4mo ago
Recent consequences, the events began long ago :)

gonzalohm 4mo ago

I think this is people that were thinking of getting an EV anyway and they decided to do it earlier

ReactiveJelly 4mo ago

I bought one because I had a feeling that the price of used EVs was about to shoot up

askvictor 4mo ago

This also coincides with EVs becoming better and cheaper

davis 4mo ago

> based upon recent events Climate change has been in the zeitgeist for decades now. Pretty sure many people are cognizant of this and want to move away from fossil fuels. This is just a boost to do so.

dmix 4mo ago
That and governments pushing to ban non-EV cars over a certain timeline while subsidizing more expensive EVs. The most important thing right now in addition to fuel prices is how much cheaper EVs are getting because of innovation in China.
- netsharc 4mo ago
  Interesting point, I wonder why governments haven't planted the idea in buyers that ICE cars will be getting more expensive to own (e.g. through taxes) in the coming 5-10 years. Then the thought of buying an ICE car now will also be less attractive because people know they won't be worth much in the 2nd hand market in 5-10 years. But I suppose I see the answer, it's because of the car manufacturers employing many EU voters (in particular in Germany which is the 400kg gorilla in the EU), no government wants to piss off their voters.
  - Symbiote 4mo ago
    It's not as direct as a future tax, but ICE cars have been gradually made less useful in many EU countries including Germany and France. You can't drive one into the centre of Paris, and older ICE cars are banned from the centre of larger German cities. Even people who never go to these cities know it reduces the second hand value.

sampton 4mo ago

What is there to not understand. Given large enough population there's always someone ready to update.

cromka 4mo ago

> It’s so wild to me to make a multiyear purchasing decision based upon recent events. Even wilder to project other peoples decisions so naively

belviewreview 4mo ago

"make a multiyear purchasing decision based upon recent events" You have this all backwards. The fact is that for many decades petroleum is an unreliable energy source due to geopolitical factors, but people have been pretending that was not the case. What has happened in the last two months is people have finally realized the long-term truth.

solumunus 4mo ago

Oil usage being subject to supply shocks is nothing new, it’s completely inevitable. Moving to renewables is an obvious upgrade, this recent crisis is just bringing that into the light for folk.

NoLinkToMe 4mo ago

It's more like the recent events trigger people's awareness and learning about multi-year trends that are happening regardless of recent events. EVs are a good deal in much of the world. They're more quiet, lower maintenance costs, lower fuel costs, therefore lower cost of ownership and operation. And they have less volatile costs as electricity prices swing less than gas prices. Long-term trends show electricity and gas prices decouple. It's just that every time gas prices spike, people look into solutions and find out these truths.

acdha 4mo ago

EVs have been better for ~90% of the driving most people do for a decade, but a lot of people held back because they fixated on things like epic road trips or needing to haul many sheets of plywood. What a price shock does is force people to acknowledge how much money they’ve been spending on edge-cases, making many of them reconsider how much it’s really worth to, for example, go on an all-day drive without every stopping for more than a few minutes or whether the SUV/pickup truck aesthetic is worth paying 50% more every day.