4 ms·

If the removal of standardized testing in 2021 was the real reason, then why is there a sudden spike of failure rates happening right now?

userbinator 4mo ago
It takes time for students to work their way through the system.
- kingkawn 4mo ago
  Wouldn’t this change be evidenced right away after the elimination of the test as criteria if the test was responsible
  - sfink 4mo ago
    Not if kids are prepping for the test in a way that results in real gains. Which seems likely, especially in the age of AI: "should I actually study math or just use ChatGPT to pass this course?" One semester of coasting through might not do that much harm, but at some point the compounding effects will tip you over the edge.
  - Schiendelman 4mo ago
    Define "right away". How long after taking the SAT does a child have their first classes at university? At least a year?
  - boringg 4mo ago
    No probably needs a couple more years. Writing the test itself is motivation to do well in HS math. If that no longer becomes a driver probably takes off the drive in other courses over a couple years. I bet without the SAT as a standardized test a lot of HS math courses are easier for the teacher because the quality can lapse. Also some children who excel write their SATs sometimes 2-3 years before college and then re-write if need be.
- acbart 4mo ago
  In the spring, but not the fall?
lelanthran 4mo ago
There's always a lag between cause and effect in education. Works the other way too - if you introduce something positive in grade 1, you'll only see the results a few years later.
- HanayamaTriplet 4mo ago
  If it's a lagging effect, then why is the year-over-year spike in failure rates happening not just in 1st/2nd year classes, but also in a 3rd/4th year class at the same time?
  - lelanthran 4mo ago
    Entrance tests predict academic success , not 1st year success. "Failure to complete the qualification" is the prediction.
  - sfink 4mo ago
    Good point. I'm inclined to think it's because of a quality threshold in chatbots.
yobbo 4mo ago
Testing was the annoying flood barrier. AI is the rainstorm that shows why it was necessary.
- trenchgun 4mo ago
  This pattern reads heavily LLM in style, but also... that is spot on.
matwood 4mo ago
It takes time to work through the system and it has been steadily getting worse. It was already discussed on HN. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48309233 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48309233
- acaloiar 4mo ago
  I'm having a difficult time imagining how an admissions event in 2021 materializes in the spring semester of 2026 in a class largely taken by first-year students. Could you explain?
  - matwood 4mo ago
    It didn't just suddenly materialize. From the current article In addition to overreliance on AI, Garcia also pointed out that many students are underprepared mathematically, a concern echoed by campus associate teaching professor Gireeja Ranade. From the article discussed the other week: Over three years — from fall 2021 to fall 2023 — the letter said, at least 20% of Berkeley first-semester calculus students who took a diagnostic exam showed deficits. “Basic mathematical fluency is analogous to literacy; without it, success in university-level STEM becomes structurally unattainable for students,” faculty wrote. It's been steadily getting worse. The current article only looks at F's which conveniently hides if there has been a slope down. Additionally, kids entering HS in 2021/2022 would just now be hitting college.
    - Forgeties79 4mo ago
      SAT/ACT math is incredibly simplistic and at worst maybe contributed by not filtering as many out. Math scores have been declining nation wide for decades now, that’s been a big issue for a while.
    - acaloiar 4mo ago
      > It didn't just suddenly materialize. A sudden materialization is what's depicted by the data. > It's been steadily getting worse. I don't believe this is accurate. Failing grades are what the observation entails, and the data clearly depict an abrupt change; not a gradual one. In the section titled "Failing grades in 3 CS classes skyrocket in spring 2026 ", there's a clear jump in failing grades for all cited courses between 2025 and 2026. Failing grades for every course jump by multiples of the previous year.
watchful_moose 4mo ago
I'm guessing the kids who didn't do the standardized tests at/shortly after 2021 were already prepared for it. The kids who saw the removal of standardized testing 3 years out from going to college never bothered.
amiga386 4mo ago
https://senate.ucsd.edu/media/740347/sawg-report-on-admissions-review-docs.pdf#page=50 https://senate.ucsd.edu/media/740347/sawg-report-on-admissio... Please see the graph "Growth of the Math 2 Population by Major (2019-2024)". UCSD's Math 2 class is remedial high-school level maths. It has grown from under 100 students in 2016-2020, to more and more people each year starting from 2021. UCSD tested the people who took this class, and 25% of them could not answer the question "Fill in the box: 7 + 2 = [_] + 6" (with only pencil and paper allowed, no calculators or other electronics)
- insane_dreamer 4mo ago
  this is a Berkeley CS class, not a remedial math class.
  - amiga386 4mo ago
    I'm suggesting the problem is not limited to Berkeley. They both show the same underlying issue, there's a growing number of students attending university without the prerequisite maths skills they need to succeed. It seems they're now at the point where the sheer number of students that need improved maths skills overwhelms the staff, resulting in them failing.
    - insane_dreamer 4mo ago
      I agree it's not limited to Cal. But my point was that while you might expect remedial math students to fail (they're in remedial math for a reason), you shouldn't be having 1/3 of students failing a CS class (except perhaps if it's full of humanities majors who were required to take it for some odd reason)
- sourcecodeplz 4mo ago
  Another one with %21 fail: "Sarah had 9 pennies and 9 dimes. How many coins did she have in all?"
gamblor956 4mo ago
The removal of standardized testing is not the reason for a sudden spike in failures this past year. The standardized testing changes resulted in a decrease in mathematical preparedness across the board, but outside of CS/EECS it's not very significant in other STEM majors since most students to other math-heavy majors self-select on the basis of being good in math (and took AP math classes in high school). The big change is that LLMs became widely available 3 years ago, and practicably usable within the last 2 years. FTA, all of the failing students had enrolled in the precursor math sections that allowed for AI use on homeworks and tests; none from the other sections.

userbinator 4mo ago

It takes time for students to work their way through the system.

kingkawn 4mo ago
Wouldn’t this change be evidenced right away after the elimination of the test as criteria if the test was responsible
- sfink 4mo ago
  Not if kids are prepping for the test in a way that results in real gains. Which seems likely, especially in the age of AI: "should I actually study math or just use ChatGPT to pass this course?" One semester of coasting through might not do that much harm, but at some point the compounding effects will tip you over the edge.
- Schiendelman 4mo ago
  Define "right away". How long after taking the SAT does a child have their first classes at university? At least a year?
- boringg 4mo ago
  No probably needs a couple more years. Writing the test itself is motivation to do well in HS math. If that no longer becomes a driver probably takes off the drive in other courses over a couple years. I bet without the SAT as a standardized test a lot of HS math courses are easier for the teacher because the quality can lapse. Also some children who excel write their SATs sometimes 2-3 years before college and then re-write if need be.
acbart 4mo ago
In the spring, but not the fall?

lelanthran 4mo ago

There's always a lag between cause and effect in education. Works the other way too - if you introduce something positive in grade 1, you'll only see the results a few years later.

HanayamaTriplet 4mo ago
If it's a lagging effect, then why is the year-over-year spike in failure rates happening not just in 1st/2nd year classes, but also in a 3rd/4th year class at the same time?
- lelanthran 4mo ago
  Entrance tests predict academic success , not 1st year success. "Failure to complete the qualification" is the prediction.
- sfink 4mo ago
  Good point. I'm inclined to think it's because of a quality threshold in chatbots.

yobbo 4mo ago

Testing was the annoying flood barrier. AI is the rainstorm that shows why it was necessary.

trenchgun 4mo ago
This pattern reads heavily LLM in style, but also... that is spot on.

matwood 4mo ago

It takes time to work through the system and it has been steadily getting worse. It was already discussed on HN. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48309233 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48309233

acaloiar 4mo ago
I'm having a difficult time imagining how an admissions event in 2021 materializes in the spring semester of 2026 in a class largely taken by first-year students. Could you explain?
- matwood 4mo ago
  It didn't just suddenly materialize. From the current article In addition to overreliance on AI, Garcia also pointed out that many students are underprepared mathematically, a concern echoed by campus associate teaching professor Gireeja Ranade. From the article discussed the other week: Over three years — from fall 2021 to fall 2023 — the letter said, at least 20% of Berkeley first-semester calculus students who took a diagnostic exam showed deficits. “Basic mathematical fluency is analogous to literacy; without it, success in university-level STEM becomes structurally unattainable for students,” faculty wrote. It's been steadily getting worse. The current article only looks at F's which conveniently hides if there has been a slope down. Additionally, kids entering HS in 2021/2022 would just now be hitting college.
  - Forgeties79 4mo ago
    SAT/ACT math is incredibly simplistic and at worst maybe contributed by not filtering as many out. Math scores have been declining nation wide for decades now, that’s been a big issue for a while.
  - acaloiar 4mo ago
    > It didn't just suddenly materialize. A sudden materialization is what's depicted by the data. > It's been steadily getting worse. I don't believe this is accurate. Failing grades are what the observation entails, and the data clearly depict an abrupt change; not a gradual one. In the section titled "Failing grades in 3 CS classes skyrocket in spring 2026 ", there's a clear jump in failing grades for all cited courses between 2025 and 2026. Failing grades for every course jump by multiples of the previous year.

watchful_moose 4mo ago

I'm guessing the kids who didn't do the standardized tests at/shortly after 2021 were already prepared for it. The kids who saw the removal of standardized testing 3 years out from going to college never bothered.

amiga386 4mo ago

https://senate.ucsd.edu/media/740347/sawg-report-on-admissions-review-docs.pdf#page=50 https://senate.ucsd.edu/media/740347/sawg-report-on-admissio... Please see the graph "Growth of the Math 2 Population by Major (2019-2024)". UCSD's Math 2 class is remedial high-school level maths. It has grown from under 100 students in 2016-2020, to more and more people each year starting from 2021. UCSD tested the people who took this class, and 25% of them could not answer the question "Fill in the box: 7 + 2 = [_] + 6" (with only pencil and paper allowed, no calculators or other electronics)

insane_dreamer 4mo ago
this is a Berkeley CS class, not a remedial math class.
- amiga386 4mo ago
  I'm suggesting the problem is not limited to Berkeley. They both show the same underlying issue, there's a growing number of students attending university without the prerequisite maths skills they need to succeed. It seems they're now at the point where the sheer number of students that need improved maths skills overwhelms the staff, resulting in them failing.
  - insane_dreamer 4mo ago
    I agree it's not limited to Cal. But my point was that while you might expect remedial math students to fail (they're in remedial math for a reason), you shouldn't be having 1/3 of students failing a CS class (except perhaps if it's full of humanities majors who were required to take it for some odd reason)
sourcecodeplz 4mo ago
Another one with %21 fail: "Sarah had 9 pennies and 9 dimes. How many coins did she have in all?"

gamblor956 4mo ago

The removal of standardized testing is not the reason for a sudden spike in failures this past year. The standardized testing changes resulted in a decrease in mathematical preparedness across the board, but outside of CS/EECS it's not very significant in other STEM majors since most students to other math-heavy majors self-select on the basis of being good in math (and took AP math classes in high school). The big change is that LLMs became widely available 3 years ago, and practicably usable within the last 2 years. FTA, all of the failing students had enrolled in the precursor math sections that allowed for AI use on homeworks and tests; none from the other sections.