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My perspective: I've been supporting and working with Mac and iOS developers since the last century, when Apple moved me from Chicago to be an evangelist at App

My perspective: I've been supporting and working with Mac and iOS developers since the last century, when Apple moved me from Chicago to be an evangelist at Apple HQ in Cupertino. I know as much as anyone about AI-assisted app development, as the creator/maintainer of the free/open source Axiom (https://charleswiltgen.github.io/Axiom/ https://charleswiltgen.github.io/Axiom/) for iOS/macOS devs. It's not as dire as you might think. To software developers, the "AI revolution" is largely what the "desktop publishing revolution" was to designers. Yes, it meant the "riff raff" could theoretically play with the pros. Some percentage of the riff raff became pros. Most of the pros eventually adopted the tools and techniques used by the riff raff. Some of the pros didn't survive the transition and happily retired, taking their rubylith, Letraset type, and rubber cement with them. The silver lining is that most of a software engineer's job isn't coding, it's thinking. LLMs can't do that, and we're not getting to AGI with current AI architectures. LLMs can amplify thinking, and an LLM in the hands of a software engineer or architect is at least two orders of magnitude more effective than it can be in the hands of a vibe coder. As LLMs get better for vibe coders, they also get better for pros. One can argue that, by the end of the decade, hand-coded [your language of choice] may be considered as unnecessary as hand-coded assembly has been for decades. But coding in modern languages is already 7-8 levels of abstraction above the metal. One more level of abstraction is not the death of software engineering, IMO.

sidrag22 5mo ago
I don't think i fear so much for competing on quality vs a vibe coder, I think two orders of magnitude is underselling the potential snowball effect of a vibe coder attempting to craft up a semi complex project. The sooner they start to pile on complexity, the quicker it is that the 2x gap widens. The fear for me comes with that initial creation, which is a fear i have across a large amount of things for AI "disruption". Just floods of bad products at rates that are insane, same type of problem that exists on github of just garbage prs, and same thing for any reddit/twitter/even hn type comment thread.
- WillAdams 5mo ago
  Just another layer of Sturgeon's Law? - 90% of everything is vibe-coded crap - 90% of what isn't vibe-coded crap is also crap ergo, the small percentage which is left is not crap.
- lichenwarp 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - tomhow 5mo ago
    We've banned this account. Posting repetitive, snarky, low-substance comments like this is clearly against the guidelines. If you don't want to be banned, you can email us (hn@ycombinator.com) and commit to observing the guidelines in future. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
willio58 5mo ago
Admittedly, I’ve gone through waves of feeling scared for the future of software engineering. I manage many people so I care about them and their futures. But the more I use AI in writing software, not just vibe coding, the more I align with this perspective. And the way I see it, when AGI does come it’s going to affect a whole lot more than the software engineering job market. That’s global societal-level impact type stuff. We’d have to reckon with if work (meaning a 9 to 5) is truly a requirement to thrive in life. Spoiler, it isn’t.
- eieiue 5mo ago
  It will create more inequality. Not in the way that you think. The best will always be the best. But the upper average and average and below will become all one and the same. And that’s kinda how society should be really. Equal opportunity. Not equal outcome.
archagon 5mo ago
AI is not an abstraction. I still can’t believe engineers are making this basic, definitional mistake.
- pan69 5mo ago
  If not an abstraction, how would you describe it then?
  - archagon 5mo ago
    I don't know? It's an agent, an automated contractor, a black box that produces work. When you pay someone to help write your app, you don't call that an "abstraction."
    - victorbjorklund 5mo ago
      AI isn’t someone. And sure instead of building X I can of course bring in Y that abstracts away X.
  - bergie 5mo ago
    I think the reasonable way to look at LLMs is similar to how you'd work with junior developers. They can churn out code, but do need constant guidance. Of course, (some of the) real juniors will eventually become seniors. It remains to be seen if LLMs will.
steve1977 5mo ago
> But coding in modern languages is already 7-8 levels of abstraction above the metal. But those layers are pretty much deterministic. I think that's the qualitative difference.
ex-aws-dude 5mo ago
What are these 7-8 layers A lot of modern languages are still source -> IR -> binary
saifeddine122 5mo ago
[flagged]

sidrag22 5mo ago

I don't think i fear so much for competing on quality vs a vibe coder, I think two orders of magnitude is underselling the potential snowball effect of a vibe coder attempting to craft up a semi complex project. The sooner they start to pile on complexity, the quicker it is that the 2x gap widens. The fear for me comes with that initial creation, which is a fear i have across a large amount of things for AI "disruption". Just floods of bad products at rates that are insane, same type of problem that exists on github of just garbage prs, and same thing for any reddit/twitter/even hn type comment thread.

WillAdams 5mo ago
Just another layer of Sturgeon's Law? - 90% of everything is vibe-coded crap - 90% of what isn't vibe-coded crap is also crap ergo, the small percentage which is left is not crap.
lichenwarp 5mo ago
[flagged]
- tomhow 5mo ago
  We've banned this account. Posting repetitive, snarky, low-substance comments like this is clearly against the guidelines. If you don't want to be banned, you can email us (hn@ycombinator.com) and commit to observing the guidelines in future. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

willio58 5mo ago

Admittedly, I’ve gone through waves of feeling scared for the future of software engineering. I manage many people so I care about them and their futures. But the more I use AI in writing software, not just vibe coding, the more I align with this perspective. And the way I see it, when AGI does come it’s going to affect a whole lot more than the software engineering job market. That’s global societal-level impact type stuff. We’d have to reckon with if work (meaning a 9 to 5) is truly a requirement to thrive in life. Spoiler, it isn’t.

eieiue 5mo ago
It will create more inequality. Not in the way that you think. The best will always be the best. But the upper average and average and below will become all one and the same. And that’s kinda how society should be really. Equal opportunity. Not equal outcome.

archagon 5mo ago

AI is not an abstraction. I still can’t believe engineers are making this basic, definitional mistake.

pan69 5mo ago
If not an abstraction, how would you describe it then?
- archagon 5mo ago
  I don't know? It's an agent, an automated contractor, a black box that produces work. When you pay someone to help write your app, you don't call that an "abstraction."
  - victorbjorklund 5mo ago
    AI isn’t someone. And sure instead of building X I can of course bring in Y that abstracts away X.
- bergie 5mo ago
  I think the reasonable way to look at LLMs is similar to how you'd work with junior developers. They can churn out code, but do need constant guidance. Of course, (some of the) real juniors will eventually become seniors. It remains to be seen if LLMs will.

steve1977 5mo ago

> But coding in modern languages is already 7-8 levels of abstraction above the metal. But those layers are pretty much deterministic. I think that's the qualitative difference.

ex-aws-dude 5mo ago

What are these 7-8 layers A lot of modern languages are still source -> IR -> binary

saifeddine122 5mo ago

[flagged]