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If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google
by dbbk 5mo ago
If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google
- chvid 5mo agoYep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.
- dgellow 5mo agoThey will exist, but at what valuation? Can NVIDIA really continue to raise?
- epolanski 5mo agoPrices for both companies are already very forward looking, and assume best case scenario of insane growth for at least a decade while assuming no risk or competition. But tech is also one of the fields that is more prone to disruption. Nvidia is consistently one product away from it's competitors to eat highly into their margins. Google may have a stronger moat. No company in Italy I'm aware of is using anything but copilot or Gemini/notebooklm (talking legal, insurance, etc, not tech) because they are natural extension to the cloud and Microsoft 365 existing plans. Recency bias seem to push investors to ignore those risks and plenty reason like you: they use recent hindsight to project future growth.
- siren2026 5mo agoexactly. Everyone wants to bet on Google without looking at their current price. Their current Forward PE is absolutely insane given the size of the company.
- 0xDEAFBEAD 5mo agoI still think NVIDIA is a bad bet--where is their moat in the long term? Doesn't the sort of work NVIDIA engineers do look vulnerable to AI-assisted automation? NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right?
- pjc50 5mo agoAMD should have been ideally placed to compete with them, and haven't. > NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right? The spec is the value. And the patents.
- 0xDEAFBEAD 5mo agoI admit I'm not too knowledgeable about the semiconductor industry. But it seems to me that there two likely scenarios: AI Bear or AI Bull. In the AI Bear scenario, NVIDIA is obviously overvalued. In the AI Bull scenario, we get full automation of software engineering. With "just a few clicks", an AMD employee can extract and replicate whatever subset of the spec is needed for AI workloads. Didn't the Google vs Oracle case find that copying an API can be fair use? And NVIDIA's patents haven't stopped Google from training on TPUs have they?
- ismailmaj 5mo agoTheir moat is cuda and cuda libraries and everything built on top. When a new architecture drops, it's always PyTorch running on CUDA, other PyTorch backends are best effort, even if they reach feature parity, many industry power users went closer to the metal to squeeze performance and that stuff is too specific to Nvidia stuff. if there is something that will beat Nvidia, it won't be something reaching feature parity with slightly better economics (like AMD, also Nvidia could just reduce their margins), it needs to be a novel approach worth rewriting the codebase for (maybe Cerebras, maybe a new player).
- 0xDEAFBEAD 5mo agoI don't understand why AMD can't offer a drop-in replacement for cuda which implements an identical API. How much actual diversity is there among standard AI workloads? I would expect this is an 80/20 thing where 80% of the workload uses 20% of the features. >Nvidia could just reduce their margins Commoditization is great for stock prices ;-)
- romanovcode 5mo agoI have a suspicion that when China will roll out their NVIDIA capable chips - and that is a question of when, not if - NVIDIA stock will plummet as it is heavily overvalued atm.
- bigyabai 5mo ago> and that is a question of when, not if Well yes. People have said this since at least 2012, and we're still waiting for a CUDA-killer in 2026. Chinese fabs can't import cutting-edge silicon, and they can't manufacture EUVL at scale either. I have no reservations concerning China's ability to innovate, but the blockers are enormous and have succeeded in preventing China from accessing the true HPC market for over a decade now.
- ReptileMan 5mo agoI think that NVIDIA is quite risky. I still don't understand what is their moat. There is nothing in their hardware to make them irreplaceable.
- Danox 5mo agoThere isn’t in time what will happen is that they will be designed around be it the Chinese or someone else, see Intel another company that will also be designed around will be ASML its just a matter of time.
- bigyabai 5mo agoA lot of people don't get it. Nvidia won because they embraced standards, in a time when alternatives like OpenCL were outright sabotaged by AMD, Intel and Apple. While Khronos struggled to get their vendors on the same page, Nvidia didn't. CUDA GPUs ship with clearly-defined support windows, Compute Capabilities, hardware documentation, PTX support, datacenter drivers, Linux/UNIX support, portable libraries, synergistic desktop products and capable edge SOCs. All of them walk in lockstep and typically dominate performance-per-watt comparisons against similar products. It's a lineup that's hard to surmount. You can bet against Nvidia, but you'd better put your money on a fast horse. None of the big OEMs are taking CUDA seriously, and the bet against industry-wide cooperation is paying dividends that will be hard to justify competing with.
- marcosdumay 5mo agoYou are probably too late for both. But if you buy the AGI line, then yeah, those are the ones to go to.
- xtracto 5mo agoIm more into buying Shovels. NVIDIA is arguably one of them, and I already have some. But I recently added POET, CBRS and similar. I think whatever happens, "shovel sellers" will be the main winners in this bubble.
- mgrunwald_ 5mo agoExactly. I remember the beginnings of ChatGPT, OpenAI looked like the future and Google had Bard, which was not very good. It looked like Google was soon to become irrelevant. Fast forward to today and they have a lot of great products in this space powered by their own custom AI chips.
- siren2026 5mo agoGoogle's exhuberence today is exactly the same thing as "Google is dead" from 3 years ago. The truth is somewhere in between probably.
- siren2026 5mo agoFunny how 3 years ago everyone agreed Google would never adapt to AI (I still remember all the comments here). And suddenly they should be "literally the only ones"? What changed? They came out with one leading models for 2 weeks and that's all you needed to switch 180? Google is still printing money in ads. That's the only thing they got for them. This will eventually get disrupted and I don't see them leading to something else. Besides that they have a cultural issue. Nobody joins Google to work hard. Their brand name is synonymous with retirement and rest-and-vest. They also don't pay top of the market as they used to. Right now a lot of people seem to think as you given their stock are very forward looking. My advice is don't get into the current hype cycle and wait for things to calm down. This is the equivalent of "Google is dead" that we saw a couple years ago.
- HacklesRaised 5mo ago^^^^ THIS