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I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI
by techtuate 5mo ago
I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI space evolves. In fact I feel all AI will be marginal return generators at best.
There are a lot of incumbents and a lot more coming as barriers to entry get increasingly lower. Unless a company can build a near monopoly it'll be hard to justify a 100X revenue valuation despite heavy losses. I feel it's safer to take a punt on alternate compute companies (Musk leads but others exist) than take a bet on one of many AI companies to build a monopoly.
- Cyclone_ 5mo agoAnthropic actually turned an operating profit recently due to huge revenue growth.
- hauntingseaweed 5mo agoDo you have a source for that claim?
- dminik 5mo agoHmm, it looks like if their revenue doubles to ~$10B and their expenses don't, they stand to gain a very sweet ~$500M. https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quarterly-profit-agrees-pay-spacex-125-billion-monthly-2026-05-21/ https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart... That being said, it does look like it's being partially subsidized by Elon burning lots of money. We'll see if he can keep it up or if it will be left behind as hardware evolves.
- 48terry 5mo ago> its June quarter sales could reach at least $10.9 billion It COULD reach $10.9 billion. It COULD also completely shit itself and go bust. We'll just all have a fun time finding out together, won't we, investors?
- signatoremo 5mo agoDo this: pick a public company (because their numbers are available), look at their quarterly reports in the last 3 years. Check the numbers they forecasted for the subsequent quarter. Verify how bad they missed. See how likely they could "completely shit itself and go bust". Hint: extremely unlikely.
- 48terry 5mo agoWhat in the hell are you babbling about? Talking about what public companies do versus what the black mystery box with a question mark on it does is asinine. The entire point of this shit is that Anthropic's numbers AREN'T available. They can say whatever the fuck they want. This is why trying to get a straight answer out of them about their revenues and profits and overall business model is like the riddle of the sphinx. They have no obligation to report finances in the same way public companies are obligated to. Ever notice that, by the way? There's a lot of exciting, non-GAAP shit going around in this field. You're looking at this on the idea of a missed prediction. That's not where I'm at with this. I think Anthropic is straight-up lying. I think they are genuinely making shit up. This isn't a financial forecast, it's bullshit to hype up investors without actually having to prove it's based on anything whatsoever. It's either pure bullshit, or the numbers are so massaged and delivered at such a highly specific angle that it only becomes a logical way to display data if you're an MBA with a concussion. We have absolutely 0 reason to believe what they're saying is true. We have lots of reasons to believe they'll say shit if they think they'll get more money out of it (see: every time they open their mouths and journalists rush to copy-paste the quote into headlines).
- psb5 5mo agoAll that is a side show. What would you have done with the cash if you were right? Thats always the real story. My Aunt runs an accounting firm and is constantly moaning about the number of people who have over accumulated cash from IPOs and have no clue what to do with it all.
- anal_reactor 5mo agoI would retire. If you have two million euros lying around, that would be life-changing money for me. I'd put everything into VWCE and then live off interest. I think I'd spend a year in Japan just to see what it's like, then travel around a few other countries, and finally settle somewhere back in Europe - buy a small house in the middle of nowhere, renovate it, and then smoke weed and play video games until the end of my days.
- darkstar_16 5mo agoThat's such a cynical take. If everyone does what you're describing, we will never make progress as a society.
- podgorniy 5mo agoYou're not less cynical here
- anal_reactor 5mo agoSure. If everyone became software engineers then we'd have 8 billion IT staff and zero food production, which would lead to the extinction of human race by mass hunger. I'm not sure what's exactly your point besides "if everyone does exactly the same thing, then society collapses".
- selimthegrim 5mo agoI believe Apple had a TV series lately which proffered a solution to this.
- 5mo ago
- dbbk 5mo agoIf you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google
- chvid 5mo agoYep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.
- dgellow 5mo agoThey will exist, but at what valuation? Can NVIDIA really continue to raise?
- epolanski 5mo agoPrices for both companies are already very forward looking, and assume best case scenario of insane growth for at least a decade while assuming no risk or competition. But tech is also one of the fields that is more prone to disruption. Nvidia is consistently one product away from it's competitors to eat highly into their margins. Google may have a stronger moat. No company in Italy I'm aware of is using anything but copilot or Gemini/notebooklm (talking legal, insurance, etc, not tech) because they are natural extension to the cloud and Microsoft 365 existing plans. Recency bias seem to push investors to ignore those risks and plenty reason like you: they use recent hindsight to project future growth.
- mrweasel 5mo agoNever thought about Amazon, but I did completely expect Facebook to tank. Apparently I underestimated their level of deviousness and willingness to manipulate people. I don't even think I want to take a guess on OpenAI. I just don't think they can deliver a good product that aligns with my own moral compass, while trying to generate profit for shareholders.
- cmrdporcupine 5mo agoFor the first year or more after IPO Facebook's stock was completely flat. I bought around the IPO and it went down significantly and only recovered after a couple years. I stupidly sold at that point once I'd had about a 10 or 15% gain.
- sixtyj 5mo agoWCGW… Companies with $500B+ valuation don’t bancrupt… Enron entered the chat.
- Spooky23 5mo agoIf Enron were running today, they’d put Don Jr on the board, have the US Attorney reassigned to Guam, and sell them Venezuela for a dollar.
- serial_dev 5mo agoIMO they cannot let OpenAI fail. It's not only an AI company, it's the symbol of AI hype. This AI hype is significant part of the US economy, and the AI infrastructure spending basically half of its growth. ("it's not this it's that", I swear it's human generated slop)
- bigfishrunning 5mo agoThe bubble either pops or it gets bigger. We've survived worse, better it pops now.
- HWR_14 5mo agoHow do you know we've survived worse? I agree that we almost certainly have, but isn't one of the features of a bubble that you don't know how big it is?
- swader999 5mo agoEveryone forgets that Amazon, Google, eBay had tens of competitors at the time. We only remember the winners.