5 ms·

Have you updated your priors after this announcement? If not, why not?

• xyzsparetimexyz 5mo ago
  Prior whats?
  • Jblx2 5mo ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_probability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_probability
  • se4u 5mo ago
    When a qualifying noun is absent , then priors means prior beliefs.
    • xyzsparetimexyz 5mo ago
      Prior to what? Why not just say beliefs?
      • niek_pas 5mo ago
        "Update your priors" is a common expression in English: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/update_one%27s_priors#English https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/update_one%27s_priors#English
        • staticman2 5mo ago
          Your wiktionary link indicates it is not a common expression in English but instead something "rationalist community" people say.
          • pocksuppet 5mo ago
            HN is a rationalist community hangout.
          • repparw 5mo ago
            we're reading comments on a post about math proofs
        • rob 5mo ago
          No it's not. Where do you come up with this? Just because you searched the phrase on Google and there's a single result for it on a wiki? Who do you know that's using this expression regularly?
          • eudamoniac 5mo ago
            https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=update%20priors&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
        • happytoexplain 5mo ago
          "Common" is an exaggeration.
• zeofig 5mo ago
  I don't have enough information about the announcement for it to mean much to me. I don't know much about this field of maths. I don't know how many mathematicians were actively working on this problem. It could be zero, which would indicate it's not really that interesting. The article gushes about how it's a Very Important Problem, but it's not even mentioned on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures_by_Paul_Erd%C5%91s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures_by_Paul_Er.... I'm sure the busy folk at openAI will fix that soon however. Furthermore the extensive dishonesty of companies like openAI makes me suspicious of just how this was achieved. Overall the announcement is of little interest to my "priors", although I don't typically think in such terms.
  • signatoremo 5mo ago
    You don't have enough knowledge to dismiss them, but you still laugh? For?
    • zeofig 5mo ago
      Do you have enough knowledge? I laugh at everyone who accepts these claims in the light they're presented despite knowing so little.
      • pickleRick243 5mo ago
        You don't know the names of the mathematicians who've given their thoughts on this? If not, you really should just not comment on anything mathematical ever again.
        • zeofig 5mo ago
          I do know their names. However I'm not in the field and there are many cases in recent years of high-profile scientists putting their weight behind highly dubious claims. Thanks for the advice, by the way. Note that I'm not disputing the validity of the counterexample itself.
• ex-aws-dude 5mo ago
  Yes let me calculate the exact change it’s 0.004748394 probability now based on my own made up statistical vibes that I feel
  • deleted 5mo ago
    [deleted]