4 ms·

Or is it posible this administration just took a win-win-win position? 1 - US oil and gas companies make money as oil proces rise. The US is the largest produ

by deadeye 5mo ago

Or is it posible this administration just took a win-win-win position? 1 - US oil and gas companies make money as oil proces rise. The US is the largest producer in the world. 2 - China loses it's major source of oil and gas. 3 - Iran gets neutralized. It may not look like it now, but it will probably end up that way.

kakacik 5mo ago
3 - Iran moderates are neutralized, so hardcore fanatics from IRGC take over. Loss for literally everybody. Otherwise, 1) and 2) are true, Europe is bleeding through the nose with buying US oil and depending on its current antagonist, not smart long term situation that we need to move away asap. Somebody in US government is making literal billions on shorts and various trade deals just before major announcements keep happening, those are not that hard to see in markets. Current top public bet on this is trumps family and his close coworkers, and their families. If you ever want a witch hunt on traitors and collaborators against US citizens and society, smart up, forget Wall street and just follow those money very directly to culprits.
- _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - ipaddr 5mo ago
    The peaceful daughters mother's and sisters protest you think happened resulting in thousands of people killed were really men with machine guns backed by the CIA and Israel trying to give Trump justification for invading.
    - Helloworldboy 5mo ago
      [dead]
    - _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
      That is not what the videos that came out showed. Of course, now Iran has shudown the internet so information can not get in out. Spin harder. The truth is after the start of this war Iran has been importing Shia militias members from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to be their enforcers because the Islamic regime does not have legitimacy with the Iranian populace.
      - ipaddr 5mo ago
        Trump literally said this about the CIA and Israel. It looks like you fell for it. Here's the real story with details on how they were able to fool you and the media you rely on. https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-how-doctored-images-from-iran-misled-media-outlets/a-76396118 https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-how-doctored-images-from-ir... You can't blindly accept everything being fed to you.
        _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
        The Islamic Republic government themselves stated over 3,000 deaths. Here are some of those killed/ These are all CIA agents? https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74-a478-f9d719519b00 https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74... https://www.ohchr.org/en/media-advisories/2026/01/human-rights-council-adopts-resolution-extending-mandates-fact-finding https://www.ohchr.org/en/media-advisories/2026/01/human-righ...
        ipaddr 5mo ago
        Which nobody disagreed with. Where we disagreed was around women and children protesting and getting killed vs armed men with machine guns. You got tricked with AI photos and so did the media. My link shows how you guys got fooled and the technical details around that. Care to double down?
        _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
        According to the Iranian regime all killed were Iranian: "It described all those killed as “children of this soil” and affirmed President Masoud Pezeshkian’s commitment to protecting and vindicating their rights." And even the regime could only figure out how to label a subset of them as 'rioters and terrorists': "A government statement issued in late January indicated that over 600 of the deceased were rioters and terrorists, with the remainder being civilians and security forces." Leaving 2400 being random civilians. (if we believe the government list is actually a complete list). https://en.isna.ir/news/1404111307163/Iran-publishes-list-of-people-killed-in-early-January-riots https://en.isna.ir/news/1404111307163/Iran-publishes-list-of... You are incorrect. There are many women/children listed as killed while they were attending protests that Iran admits to having attacked and made games about on national TV: https://www.en-hrana.org/day-thirty-six-of-the-protests-government-releases-list-of-names-and-state-tv-insults-those-killed/ https://www.en-hrana.org/day-thirty-six-of-the-protests-gove... A small subset of those murdered by the Islamic Regime at protests: https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74-a478-f9d719519b00 https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_killed_during_the_January_2026_Iranian_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_killed_during_the_Jan... You realize that those dead people on the government list leave behind families/friends/social media profiles that all know/show they just wanted more freedom?
    - throw310822 5mo ago
      I'd be curious to know what people think would happen if the US decided they want their government gone. The most obvious strategy is to start internet and social media campaigns first (of which the US have complete control), and second step is to fund and arm "rebels" who are willing to conquer the state from inside and hand it over to the US on a silver plate. Complete deniability, no official war declaration, no domestic debate. And if the targeted country blocks the internet or shoots the "rebels", then the entire Western press can denounce that government as an illiberal, ferocious entity that censors information and kills its own citizens.
  - throw310822 5mo ago
    > who were against their daughters/sisters/mothers being arrested/raped/murdered when they don't properly wear hats Have a look at some pics from Tehran and let me know if you notice something: https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/tehran-iran-daily-life-cafe-park-pets-stores-markets-cb249090a6314a53c945430048d0b998 https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/tehran-iran-daily-life-cafe...
    - _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
      Please link to Islamic Republic/Shia religious leadership statements that they have repealed the hijab/modesty rules and have disbanded the basiji Islamic morality police and ordered modesty laws/rules/requirements are no longer in effect/no longer to be enforced. However I do applaud the brave Iranian women who act in defiance of their theocratic Shia oppressors. It's great to see freedom winning, isn't it? Sadly a lot of brave Iranians died/suffered to get to this point, but the current situation can easily be pulled back by the oppressive Iranian theocratic regime.
  - 1234letshaveatw 5mo ago
    That “moderate” narrative is nuts. Moderate Khamenei lol
    - elzbardico 5mo ago
      That’s what the propaganda you’ve been fed since a child tells you. The real crazy savages are not it Tehran but in TelAviv and Washington. The Iranians are just defending themselves from monsters who still think civilized people nukes and napalms civilian population, finance Latin American and African dictatorships and torture, etc.
      - 1234letshaveatw 5mo ago
        That’s cute, you spouting America bad gibberish while defending terrorists
        elzbardico 5mo ago
        If you took the time to read the US Department of State’s annual report, Country Reports on Terrorism, you would find out that the major perpetrators of terrorism are Sunni groups, not Iran nor groups allegedly sponsored by Iran. The funding for Sunni groups comes mostly from Gulf countries that are considered allied to the US: Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia. The most prolific terrorist groups in the last decade has been ISIS and their satellites, followed most of the time by groups such as The Taliban, Al-Shabaab, Maoist/Communist Party of India, Bloch Liberation Army, Haftar, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other group with ZERO relationship with Iran. It is only more recently, than Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and Hamas has been show with more proeminence in US Department of State compilation. But this is a bit complicate, because at least for Hezbollah and Ansar Allah, it is clear that they engage more with Israeli military targets, congruent with you would expect from nationalist liberation movements. Other than the October 7th, Hamas also had stopped attacks against civillians since they took power in Gaza around 2005, and even in the October 7th we need to separate fact from israeli propaganda, as it could be argued that it was mostly an operation to kidnap Israeli soldiers to exchange with palestine prisoners in negotiations, and that a lot of the civilian deaths were caused by the reaction of the IDF itself, applying the hanibal doctrine, something you can easily do by reading Israeli newspaper such as the Haaretz. Remove the comically fake atrocity propaganda lies about supposed mass rapes and babies in ovens, and it is not that different from IRAs action against british forces in the 70s. And no America is not bad. America did a lot of good to the world also besides the bad things. All the world used to admire and try to emulate america, I don't know a single person who have lived in America who doesn't have good things to say about the American people But... America has a big problem with an absolutely out-of-control military-inteligence-corporate subterranean parallel state, with an absolutely suicidal best-ally and a thoroughly incompetent president and war secretary.
  - elzbardico 5mo ago
    This is basically American propaganda.
everdrive 5mo ago
Even if this analysis were accurate, I would feel much better if the administration had intentionally gone this route rather than accidentally blundering into it.
adjejmxbdjdn 5mo ago
1 - A win for the shareholders of U.S. oil companies, close to half of which aren’t even Americans, but not a win for Americans even on a purely financial basis given that they are paying more for gas and food. 2 - China hasn’t lost its source of gas and oil. They have more reserves than the rest of the world put together and can outlast every other country, and they’re still getting shipments. 3 - The exact opposite of reality. Iran’s potential to acquire nuclear weapons was one of their biggest dangers for the rest of the world. But with this the U.S. has given Iran a new actual power that had been conjectured but never realized. Control over 20% of the world’s fuel supply and large percentages of other critical raw materials.
ifwinterco 5mo ago
People can try to come up with 4D chess explanations for the Trump admin's actions here all they want, but the truth is this is 0D chess. Just a massive strategic blunder, one for the history books. Any minor damage to China is tiny compared to the strategic loss America has undergone here
elzbardico 5mo ago
You don’t permanently remove 20% of the worlds oil, 30% of the fertilizer while having a incredibly financialized economy and somehow get on the other side of it healthy and rich. For one, this would be the end of the Petrodollar and with it the ability to have huge trade deficits siphoning more than 1 trillion in goods and services from the rest of the world in exchange for fancy green paper.
protocolture 5mo ago
>US oil and gas companies make money as oil proces rise. The US is the largest producer in the world. Its a win for me laughing at Americans spending more on oil based products. >China loses it's major source of oil and gas. Its like 12% of Chinas Oil. China is 90% of Irans oil market. I think people get this around the wrong way. >Iran gets neutralized. It may not look like it now, but it will probably end up that way. Why is death and economic destruction a good thing? Like 99.99999% of these effects are worn by iranian citizens, not their government.

by deadeye 5mo ago

kakacik 5mo ago

3 - Iran moderates are neutralized, so hardcore fanatics from IRGC take over. Loss for literally everybody. Otherwise, 1) and 2) are true, Europe is bleeding through the nose with buying US oil and depending on its current antagonist, not smart long term situation that we need to move away asap. Somebody in US government is making literal billions on shorts and various trade deals just before major announcements keep happening, those are not that hard to see in markets. Current top public bet on this is trumps family and his close coworkers, and their families. If you ever want a witch hunt on traitors and collaborators against US citizens and society, smart up, forget Wall street and just follow those money very directly to culprits.

_DeadFred_ 5mo ago
[flagged]
- ipaddr 5mo ago
  The peaceful daughters mother's and sisters protest you think happened resulting in thousands of people killed were really men with machine guns backed by the CIA and Israel trying to give Trump justification for invading.
  - Helloworldboy 5mo ago
    [dead]
  - _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
    That is not what the videos that came out showed. Of course, now Iran has shudown the internet so information can not get in out. Spin harder. The truth is after the start of this war Iran has been importing Shia militias members from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to be their enforcers because the Islamic regime does not have legitimacy with the Iranian populace.
    - ipaddr 5mo ago
      Trump literally said this about the CIA and Israel. It looks like you fell for it. Here's the real story with details on how they were able to fool you and the media you rely on. https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-how-doctored-images-from-iran-misled-media-outlets/a-76396118 https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-how-doctored-images-from-ir... You can't blindly accept everything being fed to you.
      - _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
        The Islamic Republic government themselves stated over 3,000 deaths. Here are some of those killed/ These are all CIA agents? https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74-a478-f9d719519b00 https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74... https://www.ohchr.org/en/media-advisories/2026/01/human-rights-council-adopts-resolution-extending-mandates-fact-finding https://www.ohchr.org/en/media-advisories/2026/01/human-righ...
        ipaddr 5mo ago
        Which nobody disagreed with. Where we disagreed was around women and children protesting and getting killed vs armed men with machine guns. You got tricked with AI photos and so did the media. My link shows how you guys got fooled and the technical details around that. Care to double down?
        _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
        According to the Iranian regime all killed were Iranian: "It described all those killed as “children of this soil” and affirmed President Masoud Pezeshkian’s commitment to protecting and vindicating their rights." And even the regime could only figure out how to label a subset of them as 'rioters and terrorists': "A government statement issued in late January indicated that over 600 of the deceased were rioters and terrorists, with the remainder being civilians and security forces." Leaving 2400 being random civilians. (if we believe the government list is actually a complete list). https://en.isna.ir/news/1404111307163/Iran-publishes-list-of-people-killed-in-early-January-riots https://en.isna.ir/news/1404111307163/Iran-publishes-list-of... You are incorrect. There are many women/children listed as killed while they were attending protests that Iran admits to having attacked and made games about on national TV: https://www.en-hrana.org/day-thirty-six-of-the-protests-government-releases-list-of-names-and-state-tv-insults-those-killed/ https://www.en-hrana.org/day-thirty-six-of-the-protests-gove... A small subset of those murdered by the Islamic Regime at protests: https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74-a478-f9d719519b00 https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_killed_during_the_January_2026_Iranian_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_killed_during_the_Jan... You realize that those dead people on the government list leave behind families/friends/social media profiles that all know/show they just wanted more freedom?
  - throw310822 5mo ago
    I'd be curious to know what people think would happen if the US decided they want their government gone. The most obvious strategy is to start internet and social media campaigns first (of which the US have complete control), and second step is to fund and arm "rebels" who are willing to conquer the state from inside and hand it over to the US on a silver plate. Complete deniability, no official war declaration, no domestic debate. And if the targeted country blocks the internet or shoots the "rebels", then the entire Western press can denounce that government as an illiberal, ferocious entity that censors information and kills its own citizens.
- throw310822 5mo ago
  > who were against their daughters/sisters/mothers being arrested/raped/murdered when they don't properly wear hats Have a look at some pics from Tehran and let me know if you notice something: https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/tehran-iran-daily-life-cafe-park-pets-stores-markets-cb249090a6314a53c945430048d0b998 https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/tehran-iran-daily-life-cafe...
  - _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
    Please link to Islamic Republic/Shia religious leadership statements that they have repealed the hijab/modesty rules and have disbanded the basiji Islamic morality police and ordered modesty laws/rules/requirements are no longer in effect/no longer to be enforced. However I do applaud the brave Iranian women who act in defiance of their theocratic Shia oppressors. It's great to see freedom winning, isn't it? Sadly a lot of brave Iranians died/suffered to get to this point, but the current situation can easily be pulled back by the oppressive Iranian theocratic regime.
- 1234letshaveatw 5mo ago
  That “moderate” narrative is nuts. Moderate Khamenei lol
  - elzbardico 5mo ago
    That’s what the propaganda you’ve been fed since a child tells you. The real crazy savages are not it Tehran but in TelAviv and Washington. The Iranians are just defending themselves from monsters who still think civilized people nukes and napalms civilian population, finance Latin American and African dictatorships and torture, etc.
    - 1234letshaveatw 5mo ago
      That’s cute, you spouting America bad gibberish while defending terrorists
      - elzbardico 5mo ago
        If you took the time to read the US Department of State’s annual report, Country Reports on Terrorism, you would find out that the major perpetrators of terrorism are Sunni groups, not Iran nor groups allegedly sponsored by Iran. The funding for Sunni groups comes mostly from Gulf countries that are considered allied to the US: Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia. The most prolific terrorist groups in the last decade has been ISIS and their satellites, followed most of the time by groups such as The Taliban, Al-Shabaab, Maoist/Communist Party of India, Bloch Liberation Army, Haftar, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other group with ZERO relationship with Iran. It is only more recently, than Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and Hamas has been show with more proeminence in US Department of State compilation. But this is a bit complicate, because at least for Hezbollah and Ansar Allah, it is clear that they engage more with Israeli military targets, congruent with you would expect from nationalist liberation movements. Other than the October 7th, Hamas also had stopped attacks against civillians since they took power in Gaza around 2005, and even in the October 7th we need to separate fact from israeli propaganda, as it could be argued that it was mostly an operation to kidnap Israeli soldiers to exchange with palestine prisoners in negotiations, and that a lot of the civilian deaths were caused by the reaction of the IDF itself, applying the hanibal doctrine, something you can easily do by reading Israeli newspaper such as the Haaretz. Remove the comically fake atrocity propaganda lies about supposed mass rapes and babies in ovens, and it is not that different from IRAs action against british forces in the 70s. And no America is not bad. America did a lot of good to the world also besides the bad things. All the world used to admire and try to emulate america, I don't know a single person who have lived in America who doesn't have good things to say about the American people But... America has a big problem with an absolutely out-of-control military-inteligence-corporate subterranean parallel state, with an absolutely suicidal best-ally and a thoroughly incompetent president and war secretary.
- elzbardico 5mo ago
  This is basically American propaganda.

everdrive 5mo ago

Even if this analysis were accurate, I would feel much better if the administration had intentionally gone this route rather than accidentally blundering into it.

adjejmxbdjdn 5mo ago

1 - A win for the shareholders of U.S. oil companies, close to half of which aren’t even Americans, but not a win for Americans even on a purely financial basis given that they are paying more for gas and food. 2 - China hasn’t lost its source of gas and oil. They have more reserves than the rest of the world put together and can outlast every other country, and they’re still getting shipments. 3 - The exact opposite of reality. Iran’s potential to acquire nuclear weapons was one of their biggest dangers for the rest of the world. But with this the U.S. has given Iran a new actual power that had been conjectured but never realized. Control over 20% of the world’s fuel supply and large percentages of other critical raw materials.

ifwinterco 5mo ago

People can try to come up with 4D chess explanations for the Trump admin's actions here all they want, but the truth is this is 0D chess. Just a massive strategic blunder, one for the history books. Any minor damage to China is tiny compared to the strategic loss America has undergone here

elzbardico 5mo ago

You don’t permanently remove 20% of the worlds oil, 30% of the fertilizer while having a incredibly financialized economy and somehow get on the other side of it healthy and rich. For one, this would be the end of the Petrodollar and with it the ability to have huge trade deficits siphoning more than 1 trillion in goods and services from the rest of the world in exchange for fancy green paper.

protocolture 5mo ago

>US oil and gas companies make money as oil proces rise. The US is the largest producer in the world. Its a win for me laughing at Americans spending more on oil based products. >China loses it's major source of oil and gas. Its like 12% of Chinas Oil. China is 90% of Irans oil market. I think people get this around the wrong way. >Iran gets neutralized. It may not look like it now, but it will probably end up that way. Why is death and economic destruction a good thing? Like 99.99999% of these effects are worn by iranian citizens, not their government.