5 ms·

Oil price below 100 USD, some possible route towards negiotiations, potential for an exit out of wasteful military operations.. Sure, start all over again and g

Oil price below 100 USD, some possible route towards negiotiations, potential for an exit out of wasteful military operations.. Sure, start all over again and go back to square 1. Or am I missing something here? Like a big picture, which makes a strike at this moment in time inevitable?

MarkusQ 5mo ago
"Iran launched missiles, drones and small-boat attacks at U.S. warships near the Strait of Hormuz, and that the U.S. responded by intercepting the threats and striking Iranian military sites responsible for the attacks." Iran attacked, the US blocked and countered, attacking the source of the attacks.
- cosmicgadget 5mo ago
  Per centcom: > “Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun (DDG 103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87) transited the international sea passage. No U.S. assets were struck.” Step 1 appears to have been US ships entering the strait. Iran claims they fired on a tanker but who's to say.
  - MarkusQ 5mo ago
    Right. Iran attacked US ships in international waters. I guess you could say the "first step" was the the ships being there to be shot at, if you were trying really, really hard to spin it as the united states being the aggressor.
- 3eb7988a1663 5mo ago
  During the short stint of "Project Freedom", the US claimed to have attacked seven Iranian ships. Which is still not the first time the US has attacked Iran during a negotiation or ceasefire.
  - MarkusQ 5mo ago
    If by "attacked" you mean "repelled attacks by," then sure.
Swenrekcah 5mo ago
They simply want chaos. This distracts from their corruption and authoritarian actions, it enables grift and market manipulation, it worsens conditions in other western countries which benefits them, oil price being high benefits their friend Putin, the list is long and grim.
- uxp100 5mo ago
  I also believe some in the administration want chaos. But also consider that Iran is legitimately hard to negotiate with and the negotiators have no experience with highly technical negotiations around nuclear enrichment. Like, I don’t think Trump wants chaos, actually.
  - Swenrekcah 5mo ago
    I agree Iran must be hard to negotiate with but they haven’t even tried. Obama’s nuclear deal took years of work and involved multiple countries. When Vance didn’t get his way in a single meeting he quit? Also maybe Trump doesn’t want chaos but I doubt he runs the show so much at this point.
  - convolvatron 5mo ago
    the entire war was looking really pointless and trump was left looking like a chump. none of the negotiations would let him walk away with anything looking like a win. a resumption of hostilities at least paints the illusion of progress towards..something
  - behole 5mo ago
    Anything to obfuscate the Trump-Epstien Files™ Chaos is trumps baseline.
  - cosmicgadget 5mo ago
    The thing he wants least of all is to appear to have lost. Unfortunately for many, he thought he could bomb the Iranians into submission.
  - yongjik 5mo ago
nradov 5mo ago
There was no real route towards negotiations. The two sides remained quite far apart on issues they considered non-negotiable, and neither side is desperate enough yet to make major concessions. The US strikes on Iran were paused temporarily because Kuwait and Saudi Arabia refused permission to use their bases for that purpose. Now permission to use those bases has been secured (probably in exchange for protection guarantees and other political concessions) so the strikes can resume. (I'm not claiming that any of this is a good idea, just explaining the state of affairs.)
tenuousemphasis 5mo ago
Think of it less like a consistent foreign policy and more like the biggest insider trading grift in American history.
dzhiurgis 5mo ago
> Or am I missing something here Iran is a terrorist state
- Hasbaranews 5mo ago
  Why are you being downvoted
  - cosmicgadget 5mo ago
    It's a low-quality comment.
jdlshore 5mo ago
I think what you’re missing is there was never any real progress. * Oil futures (not spot price) have been completely detached from reality, with credible evidence of corrupt insiders making money by front-running Trump’s social media posts * Negotiations never went anywhere; despite Trump’s social media claims (see point 1), they barely even got to the negotiation table * There is no potential for an exit that doesn’t leave us worse off than where we started, because Iran is control of whether the conflict continues, not the US, and it’s in their best interest to continue the conflict until they get major concessions (like permanent ability to tax the straight) In short, the Trump administration is a clown show whose only really competence is corruption.
- jfengel 5mo ago
  To be fair, they are extremely competent at that.

MarkusQ 5mo ago

"Iran launched missiles, drones and small-boat attacks at U.S. warships near the Strait of Hormuz, and that the U.S. responded by intercepting the threats and striking Iranian military sites responsible for the attacks." Iran attacked, the US blocked and countered, attacking the source of the attacks.

cosmicgadget 5mo ago
Per centcom: > “Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun (DDG 103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87) transited the international sea passage. No U.S. assets were struck.” Step 1 appears to have been US ships entering the strait. Iran claims they fired on a tanker but who's to say.
- MarkusQ 5mo ago
  Right. Iran attacked US ships in international waters. I guess you could say the "first step" was the the ships being there to be shot at, if you were trying really, really hard to spin it as the united states being the aggressor.
3eb7988a1663 5mo ago
During the short stint of "Project Freedom", the US claimed to have attacked seven Iranian ships. Which is still not the first time the US has attacked Iran during a negotiation or ceasefire.
- MarkusQ 5mo ago
  If by "attacked" you mean "repelled attacks by," then sure.

Swenrekcah 5mo ago

They simply want chaos. This distracts from their corruption and authoritarian actions, it enables grift and market manipulation, it worsens conditions in other western countries which benefits them, oil price being high benefits their friend Putin, the list is long and grim.

uxp100 5mo ago
I also believe some in the administration want chaos. But also consider that Iran is legitimately hard to negotiate with and the negotiators have no experience with highly technical negotiations around nuclear enrichment. Like, I don’t think Trump wants chaos, actually.
- Swenrekcah 5mo ago
  I agree Iran must be hard to negotiate with but they haven’t even tried. Obama’s nuclear deal took years of work and involved multiple countries. When Vance didn’t get his way in a single meeting he quit? Also maybe Trump doesn’t want chaos but I doubt he runs the show so much at this point.
- convolvatron 5mo ago
  the entire war was looking really pointless and trump was left looking like a chump. none of the negotiations would let him walk away with anything looking like a win. a resumption of hostilities at least paints the illusion of progress towards..something
- behole 5mo ago
  Anything to obfuscate the Trump-Epstien Files™ Chaos is trumps baseline.
- cosmicgadget 5mo ago
  The thing he wants least of all is to appear to have lost. Unfortunately for many, he thought he could bomb the Iranians into submission.
- yongjik 5mo ago

nradov 5mo ago

There was no real route towards negotiations. The two sides remained quite far apart on issues they considered non-negotiable, and neither side is desperate enough yet to make major concessions. The US strikes on Iran were paused temporarily because Kuwait and Saudi Arabia refused permission to use their bases for that purpose. Now permission to use those bases has been secured (probably in exchange for protection guarantees and other political concessions) so the strikes can resume. (I'm not claiming that any of this is a good idea, just explaining the state of affairs.)

tenuousemphasis 5mo ago

Think of it less like a consistent foreign policy and more like the biggest insider trading grift in American history.

dzhiurgis 5mo ago

> Or am I missing something here Iran is a terrorist state

Hasbaranews 5mo ago
Why are you being downvoted
- cosmicgadget 5mo ago
  It's a low-quality comment.

jdlshore 5mo ago

I think what you’re missing is there was never any real progress. * Oil futures (not spot price) have been completely detached from reality, with credible evidence of corrupt insiders making money by front-running Trump’s social media posts * Negotiations never went anywhere; despite Trump’s social media claims (see point 1), they barely even got to the negotiation table * There is no potential for an exit that doesn’t leave us worse off than where we started, because Iran is control of whether the conflict continues, not the US, and it’s in their best interest to continue the conflict until they get major concessions (like permanent ability to tax the straight) In short, the Trump administration is a clown show whose only really competence is corruption.

jfengel 5mo ago
To be fair, they are extremely competent at that.