3 ms·

It's so weird for you to be fearful of something when you don't know how farming works. Every year farmers cut down a bunch of trees and plant new ones in respo

by nradov 6mo ago

It's so weird for you to be fearful of something when you don't know how farming works. Every year farmers cut down a bunch of trees and plant new ones in response to costs and market demand. So what. This is routine and seldom makes the news. Canned fruit, like what these farmers were producing, has been losing popularity for years. You can't force consumers to like it.

cogman10 6mo ago
No, not typically. And I know this because I grew up around farmers and farmers that had orchards. Trees would be cut down and replaced, usually if the tree was sickly. But not because this year plums are doing better on the market. As I said, trees take a long time to bear fruit. It's not typical that a farmer will cut down a tree in their orchard in response to market pressure as that tree represents a huge investment. If that were the case, then why are there so many peach trees currently? Why hasn't the entire orchard been replaced with olive trees? Do you actually have farming experience?
- nradov 6mo ago
  Yes, I actually have farming experience. Farmers aren't naive about this stuff. They forecast future trends as best they can and will replace trees (or other crops) when it seems profitable. Newly planted fruit trees will generally start producing within a few years and output increases as the trees grow, then eventually levels off and declines as they age. A tree is just another capital asset with a limited lifespan. Much ado about nothing.
  - cogman10 6mo ago
    Ok, then I'll just reissue my 2 questions > If that were the case, then why are there so many peach trees currently? Why hasn't the entire orchard been replaced with olive trees? I agree, that farmers forecast and switch up crops. But I disagree with you that you have a bunch of farmers that have mixed orchards setup because of that forecasting. It's not like wheat or barely where you could switch between the two even mid year if you were crazy enough. I'd also point out that the first fruiting isn't exactly a bumper crop. It takes several more years after that first fruiting before you get to the point where a tree is fully productive.
    - nradov 6mo ago
      You're not making any sense. I never claimed that a bunch of farmers have mixed orchards. Some farmers have too many peach trees right now because Del Monte got their forecasts wrong so now those farmers will chop down the peach trees and probably plant something else. Olive oil demand is still trending up so that might be a possibility in some cases, there are lots of options. That's just how farming works: you have to place your bets and then work for years to see if they pay off.
      - cogman10 6mo ago
        > I never claimed that a bunch of farmers have mixed orchards. You claimed > Every year farmers cut down a bunch of trees and plant new ones in response to costs and market demand. What do you mean responding to "costs and market demand"? You also claimed > They forecast future trends as best they can and will replace trees (or other crops) when it seems profitable. Both those statements would imply that you have orchard farmers who are growing and harvesting multiple types of crops. Unless you are trying to say that it's common for a fruit farmer to completely destroy an orchards and replace with with a new crop. Both, frankly, are ridiculous claims which are quickly dispatched with "Why aren't there more olive trees". If the reaction to market forces was that fast, the expectation is that last 10 years of raised olive prices would have caused a lot of these farmers to uproot and plant olive trees. It's currently a very lucrative crop and California is certainly amenable to growing olives. > That's just how farming works: you have to place your bets and then work for years to see if they pay off. I agree with this statement. Farming is a game of placing bets on the future of the market. But I disagree that orchard farmers are commonly just diving head first into switching crops in any sort of fashion. It takes a severe event, like their primary distributor going bankrupt, to move an orchard farmer towards new crops. That is not common or business as usual.
        nradov 6mo ago
        You're still not making any sense. If you drew some sort of implication about mixed orchards then you really need to work on basic reading comprehension.
  - jasomill 6mo ago
    People have this image of farmers as ignorant bumpkins, when owners of even small family farms are some of the most intelligent, objective, and economically-motivated businesspeople I've known. The first IBM PC I ever used was in the home office of a farmer who was using it for economic forecasting. And I grew up in the middle of a large city (for reference, I had an Atari 800 at home, regularly used Apple ][s at school, my friends were raving about the newly-introduced Commodore 64, and the most impressive tech I had ever seen was a VAX 11/780).
    - fragmede 6mo ago
      Not to mention, the tech in modern tractors and all the other farm equipment these days is insane.
    - cogman10 6mo ago
      Who made the claim that farmers are ignorant bumpkins?
- nonfamous 6mo ago
  There’s not a lot of overlap between prime citrus and prime olive farmland.
  - account42 6mo ago
    What does citrus have to do with anything?
orwin 6mo ago
> Every year farmers cut down a bunch of trees and plant new ones in response to costs and market demand I'll admit my experience is more with vineyard than orchards, but at least for grape, this isn't true. You only cut down old, unproductive vines, and market demand is not a factor. You never know how much you will produce YoY, so basically you try to only produce what your domain can handle. (The english translation for the following will be rough i realize). On the "planting" side, you're wrong: a limited stock of "rootstock" (if this is the correct translation of "porte-greffe") is produced each year. As those are specific to a certain type of soil and take time to grow, you don't produce a ton each year. And vines "rootstock" are _a lot_ easier to grow than other trees (you have a mother-vine that you don't prune, you bury its branch in the soil, and over a year it will develop roots). My guess is that for orchards, your rootstock should take 3-4 years, so it isn't that easy.
- nradov 6mo ago
  Grape vines have a longer productive lifespan than most fruit trees so I don't know what point you're trying to make. Lots of wine grape vines are being torn out in California. Competition is intense, we're well past "peak wine" (consumers aren't drinking as much), and honestly a lot of it was kind of garbage anyway.
- nonfamous 6mo ago
  Ever wondered why there are few merlot vineyards in Napa these days? Dozens of vineyards are uprooted and replanted each year in that tiny valley alone in response to market demand.
bsder 6mo ago
> Canned fruit, like what these farmers were producing, has been losing popularity for years. You can't force consumers to like it. Has canned fruit actually lost popularity? Or did the grocery stores decide that the shelf space had a higher profit margin pushing something else? The last couple of times I tried to get canned fruit for a recipe I had to actively hunt for the particular cans of fruit I needed (I needed to hit 3 different grocery stores). I haven't tracked peaches recently, but I can tell you that canned apricots have been a bit thin on the ground for at least a couple of years.
- ac29 6mo ago
  > Has canned fruit actually lost popularity? Compared to Del Monte's heyday in the previous century? Absolutely. A remarkable amount of fruit is available all year, or most of the year now. I cant imagine eating canned fruit by choice.
  - aworks 6mo ago
    I forgot it was even a thing.
  - Danox 6mo ago
    Another thing in short supply these days is actually being able to buy an actually good Apple pie or Peach pie. Oh well… I shall try and see if I can get a Peach or an Apple pie. This weekend you know the old-fashioned pie that actually tastes good and is well made. That’s another thing that’s in short supply along with actually getting any good baked goods unless you can go to a small Bakery somewhere if you can find one they usually cost a more but not that much more than what you could find in the supermarket times have been changing for the worst when comes to baked goods. Del Monte in recent times was passed between four equity companies. One of those equity companies actually bought them twice. Del Monte was on the pathway to hell. Hopefully some of those trees can be transplanted within a 50 mile radius of where they are. If I lived up in that area. I would seriously try to see if I could transplant a few.
  - Danox 6mo ago
    A well-made, old-fashioned peach pie. With good vanilla ice cream on top. McConnell’s, Häagen-Dazs or the best you can find locally or maybe homemade.
deleted 6mo ago
[deleted]

by nradov 6mo ago

cogman10 6mo ago

No, not typically. And I know this because I grew up around farmers and farmers that had orchards. Trees would be cut down and replaced, usually if the tree was sickly. But not because this year plums are doing better on the market. As I said, trees take a long time to bear fruit. It's not typical that a farmer will cut down a tree in their orchard in response to market pressure as that tree represents a huge investment. If that were the case, then why are there so many peach trees currently? Why hasn't the entire orchard been replaced with olive trees? Do you actually have farming experience?

nradov 6mo ago
Yes, I actually have farming experience. Farmers aren't naive about this stuff. They forecast future trends as best they can and will replace trees (or other crops) when it seems profitable. Newly planted fruit trees will generally start producing within a few years and output increases as the trees grow, then eventually levels off and declines as they age. A tree is just another capital asset with a limited lifespan. Much ado about nothing.
- cogman10 6mo ago
  Ok, then I'll just reissue my 2 questions > If that were the case, then why are there so many peach trees currently? Why hasn't the entire orchard been replaced with olive trees? I agree, that farmers forecast and switch up crops. But I disagree with you that you have a bunch of farmers that have mixed orchards setup because of that forecasting. It's not like wheat or barely where you could switch between the two even mid year if you were crazy enough. I'd also point out that the first fruiting isn't exactly a bumper crop. It takes several more years after that first fruiting before you get to the point where a tree is fully productive.
  - nradov 6mo ago
    You're not making any sense. I never claimed that a bunch of farmers have mixed orchards. Some farmers have too many peach trees right now because Del Monte got their forecasts wrong so now those farmers will chop down the peach trees and probably plant something else. Olive oil demand is still trending up so that might be a possibility in some cases, there are lots of options. That's just how farming works: you have to place your bets and then work for years to see if they pay off.
    - cogman10 6mo ago
      > I never claimed that a bunch of farmers have mixed orchards. You claimed > Every year farmers cut down a bunch of trees and plant new ones in response to costs and market demand. What do you mean responding to "costs and market demand"? You also claimed > They forecast future trends as best they can and will replace trees (or other crops) when it seems profitable. Both those statements would imply that you have orchard farmers who are growing and harvesting multiple types of crops. Unless you are trying to say that it's common for a fruit farmer to completely destroy an orchards and replace with with a new crop. Both, frankly, are ridiculous claims which are quickly dispatched with "Why aren't there more olive trees". If the reaction to market forces was that fast, the expectation is that last 10 years of raised olive prices would have caused a lot of these farmers to uproot and plant olive trees. It's currently a very lucrative crop and California is certainly amenable to growing olives. > That's just how farming works: you have to place your bets and then work for years to see if they pay off. I agree with this statement. Farming is a game of placing bets on the future of the market. But I disagree that orchard farmers are commonly just diving head first into switching crops in any sort of fashion. It takes a severe event, like their primary distributor going bankrupt, to move an orchard farmer towards new crops. That is not common or business as usual.
      - nradov 6mo ago
        You're still not making any sense. If you drew some sort of implication about mixed orchards then you really need to work on basic reading comprehension.
- jasomill 6mo ago
  People have this image of farmers as ignorant bumpkins, when owners of even small family farms are some of the most intelligent, objective, and economically-motivated businesspeople I've known. The first IBM PC I ever used was in the home office of a farmer who was using it for economic forecasting. And I grew up in the middle of a large city (for reference, I had an Atari 800 at home, regularly used Apple ][s at school, my friends were raving about the newly-introduced Commodore 64, and the most impressive tech I had ever seen was a VAX 11/780).
  - fragmede 6mo ago
    Not to mention, the tech in modern tractors and all the other farm equipment these days is insane.
  - cogman10 6mo ago
    Who made the claim that farmers are ignorant bumpkins?
nonfamous 6mo ago
There’s not a lot of overlap between prime citrus and prime olive farmland.
- account42 6mo ago
  What does citrus have to do with anything?

orwin 6mo ago

> Every year farmers cut down a bunch of trees and plant new ones in response to costs and market demand I'll admit my experience is more with vineyard than orchards, but at least for grape, this isn't true. You only cut down old, unproductive vines, and market demand is not a factor. You never know how much you will produce YoY, so basically you try to only produce what your domain can handle. (The english translation for the following will be rough i realize). On the "planting" side, you're wrong: a limited stock of "rootstock" (if this is the correct translation of "porte-greffe") is produced each year. As those are specific to a certain type of soil and take time to grow, you don't produce a ton each year. And vines "rootstock" are _a lot_ easier to grow than other trees (you have a mother-vine that you don't prune, you bury its branch in the soil, and over a year it will develop roots). My guess is that for orchards, your rootstock should take 3-4 years, so it isn't that easy.

nradov 6mo ago
Grape vines have a longer productive lifespan than most fruit trees so I don't know what point you're trying to make. Lots of wine grape vines are being torn out in California. Competition is intense, we're well past "peak wine" (consumers aren't drinking as much), and honestly a lot of it was kind of garbage anyway.
nonfamous 6mo ago
Ever wondered why there are few merlot vineyards in Napa these days? Dozens of vineyards are uprooted and replanted each year in that tiny valley alone in response to market demand.

bsder 6mo ago

> Canned fruit, like what these farmers were producing, has been losing popularity for years. You can't force consumers to like it. Has canned fruit actually lost popularity? Or did the grocery stores decide that the shelf space had a higher profit margin pushing something else? The last couple of times I tried to get canned fruit for a recipe I had to actively hunt for the particular cans of fruit I needed (I needed to hit 3 different grocery stores). I haven't tracked peaches recently, but I can tell you that canned apricots have been a bit thin on the ground for at least a couple of years.

ac29 6mo ago
> Has canned fruit actually lost popularity? Compared to Del Monte's heyday in the previous century? Absolutely. A remarkable amount of fruit is available all year, or most of the year now. I cant imagine eating canned fruit by choice.
- aworks 6mo ago
  I forgot it was even a thing.
- Danox 6mo ago
  Another thing in short supply these days is actually being able to buy an actually good Apple pie or Peach pie. Oh well… I shall try and see if I can get a Peach or an Apple pie. This weekend you know the old-fashioned pie that actually tastes good and is well made. That’s another thing that’s in short supply along with actually getting any good baked goods unless you can go to a small Bakery somewhere if you can find one they usually cost a more but not that much more than what you could find in the supermarket times have been changing for the worst when comes to baked goods. Del Monte in recent times was passed between four equity companies. One of those equity companies actually bought them twice. Del Monte was on the pathway to hell. Hopefully some of those trees can be transplanted within a 50 mile radius of where they are. If I lived up in that area. I would seriously try to see if I could transplant a few.
- Danox 6mo ago
  A well-made, old-fashioned peach pie. With good vanilla ice cream on top. McConnell’s, Häagen-Dazs or the best you can find locally or maybe homemade.

deleted 6mo ago

[deleted]