4 ms·
Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets
- beepbooptheory 6mo agoDupe from a little bit ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
- mdrzn 6mo agoAlready discussed: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
- boringg 6mo agoIs there a bet available to determine if the weather forecasted was impacted by a hair dryer?
- cosmojg 6mo agoThat's not a bad idea. It actually sounds like it could be a very useful hedge/insurance play.
- wongarsu 6mo agoThat'd be easier to game than "will somebody run onto the field in the next $sports game". Just bet yes and bring a hair dryer. Make sure somebody posts evidence to X so you can cash out
- Anon1096 6mo agoIf the yes side is heavily favored because it's a "sure thing" then there will eventually be people who bet no and hire guards (or go themselves) to defend the weather sensor from the hairdryer-wielders.
- saghm 6mo agoThis could be the origin of a new sport, and then betting on it would become even more common
- LeifCarrotson 6mo agoThat's effectively what all the 99% or 1% prediction markets are: a bet that an asteroid will destroy the planet or that the Rapture will occur or that we'll all upload our consciousnesses into computronium or whatever is not actually a bet that those events will happen (and that the site and enough of the economy will survive to allow you to collect and spend your winnings), it's a bet that the market will resolve incorrectly.
- hilariously 6mo ago"It sucks that someone potentially tricked a temperature sensor with a hairdryer to scam actual gamblers out of potential winnings" really missed a chance to say it blows.
- moi2388 6mo agoThat’s rather dry humour for such a hairy situation
- lelandfe 6mo agoIt went over my head, but I think they’re full of hot air anyway.
- mmmlinux 6mo ago"actual gamblers"
- xg15 6mo agoReal Gamers
- stronglikedan 6mo agoin fairness, hairdryers have to suck so they can blow
- cnj 6mo agoIt never occurred to me that Goodhart's law could be applied to betting, but here we are :)
- declan_roberts 6mo agoI can't believe there's no honor among the gamblers!
- nkrisc 6mo agoGambling addicts will really gamble on anything, won’t they? It’s a bit strange to see degenerate gambling dressed up as “predictions”.
- gwerbin 6mo agoThis looks less like gambling addiction and more like a scam executed for profit.
- chneu 6mo agoYes, gambling. That's literally what gambling is, a scam.
- qup 6mo agoGambling takes many forms. If you and I flip a coin for $100, there's no scam.
- testing22321 6mo agoSooner or later someone will rig the coin
- chucksta 6mo agoPotential for fraudulent activity makes something a scam? That list is gonna be long
- Tade0 6mo ago"Gaming"[0] companies are audited for the expected value each coin toss/slot machine roll etc. has - typically it's a high and unusually precise percentage, like e.g. 95.1681%. The scam in is advertising, that emphasizes how much you can potentially win, even though obviously on average the house takes those few percent each time. [0] A term they like to use to describe themselves.
- avazhi 6mo agoA fool and his money etc etc. You love to see it.
- zobzu 6mo agoclimate change via hair drier ;D
- Arn_Thor 6mo agoMaybe it's bad to let people bet on anything, huh
- giannicmptr1000 6mo agohilarious title, engadget is still quality after all these years
- swader999 6mo agoFinally some hacking news!
- ChrisArchitect 6mo ago2 weeks old news OP https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47869664 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47869664 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
- Uptrenda 6mo agolulz futures paying off as usual
- xg15 6mo agoI think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.
- mint5 6mo agoNo no no, the outcome revealed new information as the market intends! That info is that people had discounted the rare weather event “a 10% chance of localized hairdryers” on the day in question. The bettor predicted this better than everyone else, making their info public by placing a bet!!! /s
- solumos 6mo agoPolymarket is simply an exchange for these sorts of “contracts” and the results are verified by a separate entity (it’s a DAO, which of course can be manipulated, and was the subject of controversy due to some Venezuela invasion-related “market” resolutions)
- HDThoreaun 6mo agoPoly market resolution has a long history of controversy. Going back years now the DAO has essentially scammed users with questionable resolutions.
- arealaccount 6mo agoIf anything this was great free advertising for their platform
- damnitbuilds 6mo agoIs that better or worse than invading Venezuela to rig a Polymarket bet ?
- HeavyStorm 6mo agoIf that happened, has a crime been committed? I don't think so. Well, maybe tampering with the thermometer might be a crime, but, on the gambling angle, I would say it's not.
- JohnMakin 6mo agoIf you cheat a casino, you go to jail.
- AureliusMA 6mo agoThe betting contract depended on the Oracle's data for resolution. The Oracle's data was altered. The betting contract wasn't altered, however the social contract was.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- mac3n 6mo agois this what the cryptobros are doing now?
- greatgib 6mo agoJust to be clear, my understanding of news here is France is that there is an investigation for someone having possibly rigged the weather sensor but there was nothing release about how this could have been done. The hair dryer thing is a joke, even if it is still a possibility, but just to say, it could be a cover, it could be a hot air gun, it could be a hack, it could be just luck, ... Take care because there are ai generated videos of a guy with a hair dryer doing that, but these are fake!
- staplung 6mo agoThey said that Cobra would never acquire the pieces of the Weather Dominator. Now we’re doomed!
- fleroviumna 6mo ago[dead]
- edge_trader_41 6mo ago[flagged]