4 ms·
That’s an incredibly optimistic timeline.
by nkrisc 6mo ago
That’s an incredibly optimistic timeline.
- pedalpete 6mo agoSlowly, then all at once. Computers were nowhere for ever, then everyone had them. The internet was tiny, then everywhere. Smartphones were a teensy market, then everyone had them. GLP1s were for a small group of diabetics, now a significant portion of the population take them. This is how things playout time and time again. Does it mean the commentors 10 years is correct? No. But it also doesn't need to be incredibly optimistic. All it takes is getting the robots right, and there are multiple companies who seem very close.
- marcosdumay 6mo agoIt took almost 20 years from computers that nobody brought on electronics and photography stores to computers in everybody's desk. Robots will probably be slower, because there is way less room for optimizing their cost.
- dmix 6mo agoMostly just the cost, yeah. It will be like buying a car. The economics will have to make sense for regular people, while it starts popping up in tons of places and become a status symbol.
- jcelerier 6mo agorobots have existed for more than 20 years though. Boston Dynamic's dog is 22 years old, Atlas 15-ish
- somewhatgoated 6mo agoWhat can I as a normal person use these robots for?
- marcosdumay 6mo agoComputers also existed for more than 20 years before they started being sold to end-users. And again, the robots market will probably not evolve anything near as fast as the computers.
- Gigachad 6mo agoWe have had more than 10 years of robotic vacuums and yet they are still a fairly niche product.
- bigyabai 6mo agoDigital computers existed for ~10-20 years before hitting the consumer market. It took almost a half-century for the microprocessor to become a ubiquitous appliance.
- SequoiaHope 6mo agoWe’re already seeing huge progress in humanoids coming from china. The big problem is software and world understanding, but the data collection from today’s humanoids and the rush to capitalize on their potential now that manufacturing their form is largely solved (save for hands) will see these problems overcome. I expect it will be common to see them make deliveries in five years. Regular people don’t have to buy them for them to see widespread use.
- 0xbadcafebee 6mo agoSo, after they work out all the mechanical kinks (there are quite a few!), and after they work out all the software issues (again, many of them), the last problem is the biggest: production. Anyone can make a half dozen robots by hand. A hundred thousand is a completely different challenge. If they can't be made efficiently, their cost makes them more of a toy than a tool.
- nine_k 6mo agoOne of the Tesla's factories is winding down car production in a plan to convert to producing humanoid robots.
- 0xbadcafebee 6mo agoI can buy China doing it, but not Tesla. They have a terrible track record of production, nothing even close to China's capability. In the past they've "developed" factories by taking huge government incentives and then basically doing nothing with them and pocketing the cash.
- oblio 6mo agoIs that because they're close to building robots or because Chinese EVs are eating their lunch and Tesla is flatlining?
- ReptileMan 6mo agoThe line between moonshot and scam is thin and elon is known for doing jumping jacks on it.
- nradov 6mo agoI predict that we'll see limited combat use of the latest Chinese bipedal robots within two years. They'll sell to both Russia and Ukraine.
- oblio 6mo agoUkraine already has UGVs and they're tracked or wheeled. I can't imagine bipedal robots being cost efficient for 99% of missions in the near future.
- nradov 6mo agoRight, the wheeled and tracked units are more cost efficient. But there are some mission sets and terrains for which bipedal robots will be more effective. Everything is going to get tested to see what works.