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Rodney Brooks has a great essay on why he's skeptical that the current humanoid hype will deliver and the central claim is that human dexterity is extremely adv

Rodney Brooks has a great essay on why he's skeptical that the current humanoid hype will deliver and the central claim is that human dexterity is extremely advanced any today's humanoids lack even the sensors and data needed to start building the models needed to match human performance. https://rodneybrooks.com/why-todays-humanoids-wont-learn-dexterity/ https://rodneybrooks.com/why-todays-humanoids-wont-learn-dex... I saw him post this article on his Bluesky saying that they're the first ones he's seen that are close to cracking this issue (he's an investor/adviser).

dyauspitr 6mo ago
Yeah I’m going to completely disregard this because I feel like we are less than a year away from completely human feeling humanoids. This is based on nothing but obsessively watching and following humanoid progress on the internet.
- jfengel 6mo ago
  I obsessively avoid any kind of "technology is going thataway" content. So I haven't seen anything that looks like humanoid progress in quite some time. About the only thing that has snuck around my barrier is Musk apparently claiming he'll have it by the end of the year, which is pretty conclusive evidence that they won't have it by the end of the year. So if you're seeing anything that actually seems to merit attention, I'd love a few pointers. I could use some good news.
- ManuelKiessling 6mo ago
  What was eye-opening, or rather, sobering for me was when I read an interview with an engineer who explained how incredible difficult it is for a robot to orient itself when it is lying on the floor and wants to stand up. Yes, it can do the required motions just fine, that’s not the point. But think about yourself when you are lying on the floor: it’s really easy to determine if this is safe, if you are lying underneath something and so on. You just feel that. A robot cannot do that; all they can do is look around as good as possible and visually determine their situation.
  - jgord 6mo ago
    I naively assumed they have a gravity sensor, so will generally have an approximate up vector ?
    - rcxdude 6mo ago
      Theu have an IMU, what they don't generally have is the various aspects of touch.
      - card_zero 6mo ago
        The point about being aware of lying underneath some object was interesting. Sound might matter, like the frequency of background noise changes when you're in an enclosed space, and listening to your own shuffling noises helps you know when you've planted your feet right - or something. I have some really effective ear plugs and I notice they make it harder to move around. Having said that, I've probably hit my head on the underside of an open cupboard door five or six times in my life, and I expect to do it again.
    - ManuelKiessling 6mo ago
      Yeah but imagine yourself lying on the floor with your vision being your only sense, plus an info floating in your mind: „fyi, you are no longer upright“. That’s all, you feel nothing else. Now your job is to move all parts of your body in just the right way.
      - AndrewDucker 6mo ago
        But I have more than that. I can definitely sense which way is up unless I'm underwater.
        card_zero 6mo ago
        Or have an amusing inner ear infection. So OK, sure, it's vector, not a flag.
      - 6mo ago
- nancyminusone 6mo ago
  Well, as someone who has tried to build at least a couple small robot arms, I think we are probably closer to 20-50 years away. Both the power and dexterity are not there. Right now, only a human can both push over a boulder and pick up a tiny speck from the floor using the same actuator.
- rcxdude 6mo ago
  Beware generalising from a carefully curated and presented set of demos to real life.
megaman821 6mo ago
I wonder how accurate joint positions and muscle activations can be from just a POV camera. Maybe it’s not crazy to think someone could get tens of millions of hours of well-labeled training data.
artisin 6mo ago
[dead]
nomel 6mo ago
> needed to match human performance. This is not a remotely a real world requirement for them to be useful, and for them to sell like crazy.
- usrnm 6mo ago
  Isn't it? The whole promise if humanoid robots is replacing humans in a human-centered environment. Instead of specialized hardware or modifying the existing process, just drop a robot in place of a human, bam, done. Otherwise, what's the point?
  - pzo 6mo ago
    The point is that even if they do something 3x slower and maybe capable of 1/100 tasks they can still this do task 24/7, without holiday and never sick, they can also have more strength e.g in construction. My smart vacuum is more dump than me when wiping floor and much slower than be but still greatly useful.
    - throawayonthe 6mo ago
      that's the thing, what's the appeal of humanoid robots then? why not something more fit to the task? imagine if your roomba had legs because well that's what a human uses to move around when cleaning
      - dogcomplex 6mo ago
        Accessibility and a single chassis that does the vast majority of things. Even if they're never as fully dexterous as the average human (doubt it) they're still as dexterous as a somewhat handicapped human, which is already clearly enough to function decently in most of society and is far from useless. If you want several bots all custom built to specific tasks, go for it. That will happen too. But a generalist has value of its own.
      - marcosdumay 6mo ago
        > imagine if your roomba had legs That would probably be an improvement. Floors are designed for people, and may have several levels. An ideal vacuum would probably look something like a centipede. Anyway, the appeal would be that it can perform several tasks. It doesn't need to perform all the tasks a human can to fulfill that.

dyauspitr 6mo ago

Yeah I’m going to completely disregard this because I feel like we are less than a year away from completely human feeling humanoids. This is based on nothing but obsessively watching and following humanoid progress on the internet.

jfengel 6mo ago
I obsessively avoid any kind of "technology is going thataway" content. So I haven't seen anything that looks like humanoid progress in quite some time. About the only thing that has snuck around my barrier is Musk apparently claiming he'll have it by the end of the year, which is pretty conclusive evidence that they won't have it by the end of the year. So if you're seeing anything that actually seems to merit attention, I'd love a few pointers. I could use some good news.
ManuelKiessling 6mo ago
What was eye-opening, or rather, sobering for me was when I read an interview with an engineer who explained how incredible difficult it is for a robot to orient itself when it is lying on the floor and wants to stand up. Yes, it can do the required motions just fine, that’s not the point. But think about yourself when you are lying on the floor: it’s really easy to determine if this is safe, if you are lying underneath something and so on. You just feel that. A robot cannot do that; all they can do is look around as good as possible and visually determine their situation.
- jgord 6mo ago
  I naively assumed they have a gravity sensor, so will generally have an approximate up vector ?
  - rcxdude 6mo ago
    Theu have an IMU, what they don't generally have is the various aspects of touch.
    - card_zero 6mo ago
      The point about being aware of lying underneath some object was interesting. Sound might matter, like the frequency of background noise changes when you're in an enclosed space, and listening to your own shuffling noises helps you know when you've planted your feet right - or something. I have some really effective ear plugs and I notice they make it harder to move around. Having said that, I've probably hit my head on the underside of an open cupboard door five or six times in my life, and I expect to do it again.
  - ManuelKiessling 6mo ago
    Yeah but imagine yourself lying on the floor with your vision being your only sense, plus an info floating in your mind: „fyi, you are no longer upright“. That’s all, you feel nothing else. Now your job is to move all parts of your body in just the right way.
    - AndrewDucker 6mo ago
      But I have more than that. I can definitely sense which way is up unless I'm underwater.
      - card_zero 6mo ago
        Or have an amusing inner ear infection. So OK, sure, it's vector, not a flag.
    - 6mo ago
nancyminusone 6mo ago
Well, as someone who has tried to build at least a couple small robot arms, I think we are probably closer to 20-50 years away. Both the power and dexterity are not there. Right now, only a human can both push over a boulder and pick up a tiny speck from the floor using the same actuator.
rcxdude 6mo ago
Beware generalising from a carefully curated and presented set of demos to real life.

megaman821 6mo ago

I wonder how accurate joint positions and muscle activations can be from just a POV camera. Maybe it’s not crazy to think someone could get tens of millions of hours of well-labeled training data.

artisin 6mo ago

[dead]

nomel 6mo ago

> needed to match human performance. This is not a remotely a real world requirement for them to be useful, and for them to sell like crazy.

usrnm 6mo ago
Isn't it? The whole promise if humanoid robots is replacing humans in a human-centered environment. Instead of specialized hardware or modifying the existing process, just drop a robot in place of a human, bam, done. Otherwise, what's the point?
- pzo 6mo ago
  The point is that even if they do something 3x slower and maybe capable of 1/100 tasks they can still this do task 24/7, without holiday and never sick, they can also have more strength e.g in construction. My smart vacuum is more dump than me when wiping floor and much slower than be but still greatly useful.
  - throawayonthe 6mo ago
    that's the thing, what's the appeal of humanoid robots then? why not something more fit to the task? imagine if your roomba had legs because well that's what a human uses to move around when cleaning
    - dogcomplex 6mo ago
      Accessibility and a single chassis that does the vast majority of things. Even if they're never as fully dexterous as the average human (doubt it) they're still as dexterous as a somewhat handicapped human, which is already clearly enough to function decently in most of society and is far from useless. If you want several bots all custom built to specific tasks, go for it. That will happen too. But a generalist has value of its own.
    - marcosdumay 6mo ago
      > imagine if your roomba had legs That would probably be an improvement. Floors are designed for people, and may have several levels. An ideal vacuum would probably look something like a centipede. Anyway, the appeal would be that it can perform several tasks. It doesn't need to perform all the tasks a human can to fulfill that.