17 ms·

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all

• pjc50 7mo ago
  Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.
  • bawolff 7mo ago
    I think there are only 3. Houthis (iran), PLC (saudi), and STC (UAE). I guess Al-Qaeda and Isis are also there.
    • renticulous 7mo ago
      On whose side is Turkey? Or is it charting its own path?
      • 21asdffdsa12 7mo ago
        [flagged]
        • za3faran 7mo ago
          No it doesn't.
      • Cyph0n 7mo ago
        It’s doing its own thing, mainly in Syria, Libya, and Somalia afaik.
      • wombatpm 7mo ago
        Turkey’s main goal is preventing the establishment of a Kurdish state for fear of losing it’s Kurdish region.
  • boringg 7mo ago
    Best of luck! These proxy wars have existed since the days of Assyria. 3000 years and running. Kind of depressing thought actually.
    • nradov 7mo ago
      [dead]
    • anonymars 7mo ago
      > Kind of depressing thought actually I gotchu: https://youtu.be/-evIyrrjTTY https://youtu.be/-evIyrrjTTY ("This Land is Mine", 3 min)
      • dansmith1919 7mo ago
        Finally, a history video I fully understand
      • frm88 7mo ago
        Brilliant video. Thank you.
    • dgb23 7mo ago
      I tried to make sense of middle eastern politics once. My conclusion has been „It’s complicated.“
      • hackeraccount 7mo ago
        I'd go to you for information before I'd go to the people who say, "It's really all pretty simple..."
      • Koffiepoeder 7mo ago
        Reminds me of this (by now completely outdated) middle east friendship chart I once came across. [0]: https://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/17/the_middle_east_friendship_chart.html https://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/17/the_middle...
      • 7mo ago
  • ReptileMan 7mo ago
    In the Middle East everyone fights with everyone else and everyone is in covert or open alliance with everyone else. Simultaneously.
    • trollbridge 7mo ago
      And for extra fun, the U.S. sometimes likes to jump into the fray.
      • Cyph0n 7mo ago
        Sometimes?
        • missingua 7mo ago
          Every ~10 year or so. As opposed to the locals who experience it daily, either war or the conflicts-between-wars.
          • appointment 7mo ago
            The US has been doing air strikes in the Middle East on a regular basis since ~1990, and they extensively support the military adventures of allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia.
      • Ladioss 7mo ago
        The US is more of a bouncer on behalf of Israel than anything else, really.
        • deepsun 7mo ago
          -- Moshe, why are you keep reading anti-Semitic papers? -- I just like to hear how powerful and clever we are.
          • anigbrowl 7mo ago
  • JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen RealLifeLore has been doing a decent job covering it [1]. The broad summary is you have the Saudi-backed unity government, the Iranian-backed Houthis, who claim all of Yemen but practically want North Yemen, and the UAE-backed STC, who also claim all of Yemen but practically want South Yemen. Emiratis bring the Israelis to the party. The Iranians bring the Russians. The Saudis bring various international elements (I know less about them than the Houthis and STC). [1] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IgD7zmJN3_A&pp=0gcJCVACo7VqN5tD https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IgD7zmJN3_A&pp=0gcJCVACo7VqN5t...
    • Raed667 7mo ago
      Johnny Harris has a pretty decent video on the topic as well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsO-rULEfrk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsO-rULEfrk
      • nakedrobot2 7mo ago
        Johnny Harris is astoundingly wrong about most things, so I'll skip it thanks
        • samschooler 7mo ago
          Do you have a reputable sources to back up your claims here? Johnny cites sources pretty consistently.
          • michaelt 7mo ago
            https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking-health-and-nutrition/many-mistakes-johnny-harris https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking-health-a... > The quick cuts and dazzling montages, as well as the dramatic shots of Harris absorbed by a document he’s unearthed, highlighting it suspensefully in tight close-ups, all lend credence to the often-excellent work he does. But it also makes it easy to mask his mistakes. And for someone who takes journalism to heart, his mistakes are big, leading to oversimplification and an occasional lapse in skepticism. [...] > In a video that garnered 8.5 million views and which Harris thumbnailed with the words “WE HAVE PROOF,” Harris explores the recent craze over UFO sightings—sorry, UAP sightings, meaning unexplained anomalous phenomena. In passing, he mentions Mick West, who has done excellent work debunking a lot of blurry footage of what is alleged to be high-tech spy drones or aliens. > But the bulk of the video is spent leering at report after report—a total of 144 are being investigated by the U.S. government right now!—while original music amps up the mystery. The emphasis on evidence over context is key to Harris’ style: flood the space with visuals that keep your attention and elicit questions and only occasionally pull back to explain.
• alephnerd 7mo ago
  > Egypt Already aligned with the KSA [0] > India Already aligned with the UAE [1] --- IMO the Pakistan aspect is overstated. This is a reversion to the norm of KSA-Pakistan relations before Imran Khan completely destroyed it by fully aligning behind Qatar and Turkiye when both were competing against KSA. [0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/5/egypt-says-it-shares-identical-views-with-saudi-arabia-on-yemen-sudan https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/5/egypt-says-it-shares... [1] - https://thediplomat.com/2026/01/india-uae-embark-on-a-strategic-defense-partnership/ https://thediplomat.com/2026/01/india-uae-embark-on-a-strate...
  • JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > Egypt is aligned with the KSA It’s complicated [1]. My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo. > Already aligned with the UAE Aligning. To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet. > the Pakistan aspect is overstated Pakistan isn’t the cause. It’s the canary. These moves happening in quick succession (strategically, over the last year, and tactically, in the timing of these announcements) speaks to previous assumptions being fair to be questioned. [1] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/egypts-tightrope-walk-between-saudi-arabia-and-uae https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/egypts-t...
    • alephnerd 7mo ago
      > My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo Abu Dhabi and Cairo have been misaligned for years since the Sudan Civil War began (UAE backs the RSF and KSA+Egypt back the Army) as well as the UAE backing Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia at the expense of their traditional partner KSA. > To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet. This is as close as it will get. New Delhi doesn't "sign" defense treaties unless pushed to a corner, because it reduces maneuverability. The Pakistan-KSA alignment was already cooking after IK was overthrown. I think I mentioned it before on HN (need to find the post I wrote) but given the primacy Pakistan has had in US-Iran negotiations well before the war as well the PRC's increasingly miffed attitude at Pakistan following the CPEC attacks, the US most likely brokered a back-room realignment between PK and KSA. A neutral-to-ambivalent India with a pro-America Pakistan is better for the US than a completely aligned India with a pro-China Pakistan. TODO: citations
• defrost 7mo ago
  As I recall, it was Saudi Arabia that largely bank rolled Pakistan's "not party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" weapons program [Ω](?) . [Ω] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_d... So there's that.
  • 21asdffdsa12 7mo ago
    We all live in a yellow cake submarine.. Its a pakistani submarine, with exclusive saudi-royalty members on the bridge. We should build a city that is a statistical bunker- basically a line, for the edge case of jihadist insurgents getting the forbidden eggs in the cake.
    • 2ndorderthought 7mo ago
      Oh like mark Zuckerberg 30th through 40th mansions?
  • quietbritishjim 7mo ago
    > ... bank rolled Pakistan's not party to ... They bank rolled Pakistan's not party to the treaty? Sorry I can't parse this sentence. Did you munge two sentences i.e. Saudi Arabia bankrolled Pakistan's nuclear weapons, and also Pakistan is not party to the treaty?
    • defrost 7mo ago
      My bad, it's late in the evening here and I typed something that works when spoken with emphasis and timing (at least in my head). I added quotes, it should say that Pakistan's weapons program is one that is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as Pakistan is not a party to it.
      • ameen 7mo ago
        We all know Israel isn’t party to it either.
• delecti 7mo ago
  > Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf. I’d expect to see an Emirati deal with Egypt and India next if this hypothesis is correct. Don't Egypt and Israel hate each other though? Could UAE feasibly align with both?
  • bilegeek 7mo ago
    They're not buddies per se, but Egypt was the first ME country to normalize relations.
    • wat10000 7mo ago
      They've also been cooperating on blockading Gaza for a couple of decades. Israel gets most of the attention for that, mostly rightfully so, but people seem to forget that there's a border with Egypt too and that has also had very limited access.
      • ceejayoz 7mo ago
        To be fair, part of the peace deal between Egypt and Israel gave Israel some control over the crossing, and they seized it entirely during the war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafah_Border_Crossing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafah_Border_Crossing > The Rafah crossing was opened by Israel after the 1979 peace treaty and remained under Israeli control until 2005... > Under a 2007 agreement between Egypt and Israel, Egypt controls the crossing but imports through the Rafah crossing require Israeli approval.
        • trollbridge 7mo ago
          This is to a large part to give Egypt plausible deniability. They don’t want to deal with Gaza, refugees, or a humanitarian crisis, but also don’t want the political fallout of taking action like the Israelis do.
          • 7mo ago
• tcp_handshaker 7mo ago
  You are missing this interesting, and confidential until now, deployment of Israeli forces in UAE: "Israel sent "Iron Dome" system and troops to UAE" - https://www.axios.com/2026/04/26/israel-iron-dome-uae https://www.axios.com/2026/04/26/israel-iron-dome-uae Also...their central bank governor quietly asked the US Treasury for a dollar swap line...Combined with the Pakistan $3.5B recall and OPEC exit, that is three coordinated moves of a cashflow stressed country...and of course the US is being asked to extend taxpayer backed dollar credit to the same royal family that bought 49% of Trump's crypto company four days before inauguration... https://fortune.com/2026/04/19/uae-talks-us-possible-financial-lifeline-currency-swap-federal-reserve-treasury-iran-war/ https://fortune.com/2026/04/19/uae-talks-us-possible-financi...
  • draw_down 7mo ago
    Sometimes foreign aid is good, other times it's bad.
  • bobthepanda 7mo ago
    UAE is in a tough spot because while they have diversified from oil, the industries they have diversified into like tourism, air travel and banking, were relying on a halo of safety that turns out to not exist.
    • wolvoleo 7mo ago
      Also, for tourism they aren't exactly welcoming to western culture. They don't even allow trans or non binary people (X) to transit to other places at dubai or abu dhabi. Can't have your cake and eat it.
      • markdown 7mo ago
        While true, that doesn't really factor into this given that that market is so small that they don't lose anything by banning things that aren't compatible with their values. So no, they most definitely can have their cake and eat it, and have done so for over two decades.
• aaron695 7mo ago
  [dead]
• huntertwo 7mo ago
  Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? At least the Saudis have pipelines - UAE is fucked
  • stogot 7mo ago
    UAE is the third largest producer in OPEC, and has options to avoid the straight, yet Their economy recently get shocked though by the war they wanted to avoid
    • checker659 7mo ago
      strait
  • grumple 7mo ago
    [flagged]
    • huntertwo 7mo ago
      Even when Israel strikes first, someone else started it. Brilliant!
      • grumple 7mo ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Israel_conflict https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Israel_confl...
        • huntertwo 7mo ago
          First paragraph > On 1 April, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate complex in Damascus, Syria, killing multiple senior Iranian officials.[28] In response, Iran and its Axis of Resistance allies seized the Israeli-linked ship MSC Aries and launched strikes inside Israel on 13 April.[6] Not to mention, Israeli occupations in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank. Iran is not the only bad actor.
• rayiner 7mo ago
  Thank you for this analysis! MSM doesn’t seem to be covering this and it’s hard to know what’s going on if you’re not familiar with the region.
• oa335 7mo ago
  "Emirati-Israeli axis" I'd add the US to that as well. Both the UAE and Israel are highly (practically solely) dependent on US for their military tech and supplies.
• sharpshadow 7mo ago
  Saudi Arabia and Somalia agreed upon military cooperation early this is year. Egypt and Turkey are in this axis as well. Somaliland was recognized by Israel late last year. UAE and Ethiopia are on this axis. Part of the endgame might be lifting the Middle East from a transit zone to a logistics hub.
• thisislife2 7mo ago
  No, way off on Egypt aligning with UAE. It is Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt who are considering forming a military alliance, specifically against Israel, because they don't trust today's deranged Israeli politicians and the American military when it comes to Israel - The Security Pact America Was Not Invited To - https://houseofsaud.com/turkey-saudi-egypt-pakistan-security-pact/ https://houseofsaud.com/turkey-saudi-egypt-pakistan-security... . And, according to a Pakistani journalist, UAE asked Pakistan to attack Iran (activate the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact) or pay back all it owes to UAE. Pakistan decided to pay back because it didn't really want to be seen joining Israel in attacking a muslim nation with which Pakistan has no enmity - https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/525590/Iran-s-military-strength-has-delivered-strategic-results-Pakistani https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/525590/Iran-s-military-stre... .