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My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks H
by dgrin91 6mo ago
My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?
- juujian 6mo agoThat would also explain why UAE is oddly in favor of a war in their region.
- energy123 6mo agoOman benefits significantly more from the war in Iran than the UAE, but is the most favorable country towards Iran in the GCC. See the visual here: https://archive.is/Xt3gd https://archive.is/Xt3gd Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been urging the US to bomb Iran since 2015 for their own non-oil reasons. They see political Islamism as a strategic and domestic threat. That's why they had Qatar under a blockade for a number of years. Iran is their biggest rival, exporting militancy to Yemen - the Houthis who UAE and Saudi Arabia battled for a number of years last decade. A number of attacks on Saudi and UAE oil and gas facilities from Iran Quds-backed militant groups in Iraq across 2019-2022. None of this makes the news in the West.
- dmix 6mo agoUAE's major issue with Saudis is their quiet support for Islamism as well. They know countries like Iran exploit for it like a wildcard which always backfires and destabilizes the region, which is bad for business.
- Cyph0n 6mo agoNo. The UAE’s major issue is that KSA has finally awoken from its deep nonsensical slumber (I can elaborate further if there is interest). This is a battle of economies and regional influence.
- dmix 6mo agoMBZ is definitely more anti-islamism than the saudis. UAE really doesn't like muslim brotherhood while Saudis have supported groups aligned with them in Yemen plus Saudis are getting closer to Turkey/Qatar. Even UAE/saudi backing different groups in Sudan war is rooted in Yemen/brotherhood issue. Both Sudanese groups sent competing troops to fight in Yemen. > While Saudi Arabia does not have any problems with Islamists and in fact more or less openly supports them, according to Donelli, the UAE sees radical religious groups as a threat to its domestic stability, as well as stability in the wider region. This distinction is also evident in the two countries’ support for the respective sides in Sudan. The UAE supports RSF’s more secular version of Islam, whereas the SAF under al-Burhan’s leadership is widely seen as more or less a continuation of the regime of Omar al-Bashir, which was heavily influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood. https://nai.uu.se/stories-and-events/news/2025-02-07-gulf-states-proxy-war-exacerbates-conflict-in-sudan.html https://nai.uu.se/stories-and-events/news/2025-02-07-gulf-st...
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- throwaway2037 6mo ago> UAE's major issue with Saudis is their quiet support for Islamism as well. What is the meaning of "Islamism" here? GCC is something like 98-99% Muslim by native population. Also, Saudi Arabia is the home of the two most important masjids in the Islamic world.
- energy123 6mo agoISIS and Iran are pan-Islamist, which is the strain of Islamism that the UAE and Saudi Arabia fear most. Pan-Islamists don't respect national boarders, democracy, nationalism or monarchies.
- g8oz 6mo agoThey are a wannabe Israel, a bad faith actor sowing chaos for geopolitical advantage. They've been spending money on Washington lobbyists to advocate for this war for a long time. And this isn't the only skulduggery they've been up to. They've supported the warlord Haftar in Libya and the genocidal RSF militia in Sudan. They've hired American mercenaries to assassinate Islamist civil society figures in Yemen. They pay European right-wing influencers to spread anti Muslim content (yes you read that right). They are the buyer for conflict gold coming from the Congo. In short they are a problem.
- smt88 6mo agoHormuz will be a problem for a long time. No one needs insider info to know that. The clowns in charge of our side of the war have made zero progress toward a resolution, and I don't know what will change. My fear is that this will continue for months and then the desperate US will start bombing cities.
- rigonkulous 6mo agoThe US is bombing cities.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- redwood 6mo agoI think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic mayhem leads to another popular uprising. Time is in the US's hands up until the midterms and even then until January
- nixon_why69 6mo agoWhat happens when Chinese flagged ships dare us to shoot them?
- redwood 6mo agoDo you mean Chinese military vessels? Or do you mean oil tankers? Oil tankers don't require you to shoot you simply commandeer. If China were to involve its Navy in opening the straight that's exactly what Good outcome could look like
- nixon_why69 6mo agoOr it could be Really Really Bad Outcome, let's not be too flippant about this. Out of curiousity, what's your good outcome from the Chinese sending destroyers to the gulf?
- voidfunc 6mo agoDo they? I just looked at a map and I see very little oil infrastructure on that side of Hormuz plus isn't Oman Iran aligned?
- infecto 6mo agoNo expert but I always got the impression Oman was a neutral party. They help run the Hormuz with Iran but largely neutral in world politics.
- mywittyname 6mo agoThey do, it's only like 1-2 million barrels a day in capacity right now.
- coffeebeqn 6mo agoIt also looks fairly easy to mine/blockade outside of their territorial waters. You don’t need that many drones to make the whole area unusable for marine transport. The strait is the clearest choke point but I don’t know how much bypassing it would help UAE
- lesuorac 6mo agoYou don't even need to hit that many ships either. Despite there being way less than 1 successful attack per week [1] travel through the Red Sea is down from ~500/week to ~200/week [2]. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_attacks_on_commercial_vessels#Timeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_attacks_on_commercial_v... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis#Houthi_attacks_on_commercial_vessels https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis#Houthi_attacks_...
- IAmBroom 6mo agoPassing the strait is effectively playing Russian Roulette, where Iranian missiles are the bullets.
- weard_beard 6mo agoOman is the Switzerland of the Middle East.
- glass1122 6mo ago[dead]
- itopaloglu83 6mo agoThey might be leaving either for a) price independence or b) currency flexibility.
- kasey_junk 6mo agoOPEC doesn’t enforce currency or monetary policy rules.
- itopaloglu83 5mo agoYou’re right, though they enforce quotas on how much you’re allowed to sell etc.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- bawolff 6mo ago> My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does OPEC limit that? It would be very surprising to me if they did, as the point of opec is only to limit production when oil prices are low. They aren't low right now.
- marcosdumay 6mo agoBesides, nobody actually follows the OPEC limitations.
- jmyeet 6mo agoThe UAE has the ADCOP (Abu Dhabi Cross Oil Pipeline) to move oil to beyond the Strait. It has a capacity of ~1.8Mbpd (million barrels per day) so is only a fraction of the UAE's total oil exports and a tiny fraction of the oil exports impacted by the Strait being closed. It's also being used already. I don't know how these particular oil exports have been impacted. They are beyond the Strait but not by that much. Iran is still entirely capable of harassing shipping there. I believe the US has given tacit approval or is behind this move entirely for what comes when the Strait inevitably reopens and that is to get the UAE to export well beyond what they might otherwise as an OPEC member. The UAE like most GCC countries is entirely dependent on US arms to maintain their regime so I simply cannot imagine them doing this without the US putting them up to it or looking the other way.
- nwellnhof 6mo ago> ~1.8Mbpd (million barrels per day) Mbpd = thousand barrels per day, MMbpd = million barrels per day
- petesergeant 6mo ago> so is only a fraction of the UAE's total oil exports Isn’t it 30-50%ish depending on how you count it? Calling it “a fraction” makes it sound much smaller in conventional English.
- elictronic 6mo agoIt means the UAE is pissed Iran attacked it then tried to block all passage through UAE controlled waters.