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I have a conspiracy-adjacent question. Let’s say your goal was to reduce globalization, but tariffs were too unpopular a way to do so. They too directly put t

I have a conspiracy-adjacent question. Let’s say your goal was to reduce globalization, but tariffs were too unpopular a way to do so. They too directly put the blame on the president for what happens. Would starting a war with Iran, shocking energy and transportation prices, raising the costs of exports from every other country be a more solid mechanism? Especially when the US is a net exporter from oil and could conceivably protect domestic industries from the same? It also - if Trump loses the presidency, the Iran war impacts will continue for years, the impact of tariffs would end relatively quickly.

amluto 6mo ago
> Especially when the US is a net exporter from oil and could conceivably protect domestic industries from the same? The oil companies would likely be extremely unhappy if they were not permitted to export their products.
- techblueberry 6mo ago
  True I mean it’s high risk and maybe dumb, but I wouldn’t put it past the current thought leaders to turn against traditional free market ideology.
  - bigbadfeline 6mo ago
    >> tariffs... too directly put the blame on the president. Would starting a war with Iran... be a more solid mechanism? War puts the blame on the president even more directly. >> Especially when the US is a net exporter from oil and could conceivably protect domestic industries from the same? The US is a huge net importer of goods. The oil surplus is rather small, has been recorded only for the last 3 years and it can't meaningfully change the US balance of trade. > shocking energy and transportation prices, raising the costs of exports from every other country... and the US could conceivably protect domestic industries from the same? Nothing will be protected, quite the opposite, the US will be the country hardest hit by inflation because, given the huge net imports, we are the country that benefits the most from unimpeded trade and lower cost of production in other countries. Trumps tariffs didn't decrease the trade deficit, in fact the deficit for 2025 was significantly higher than the pre-covid 2019. The deficits for Feb and Mar 2025 were the highest monthly deficits in history, beating the previous records by almost 100%. >> Let’s say your goal was to reduce globalization "reducing globalization" is a meaningless term, reducing the standard of living is what matters, choking international trade will cause higher reduction in the US than in other countries. > I mean it’s high risk and maybe dumb, but I wouldn’t put it past the current thought leaders to turn against traditional free market ideology. "Ideology" is a fig leaf, what matters is the money and power in the hands of the most special interest groups, it's a small club and you ain't in it.
bediger4000 6mo ago
Trump's a lame duck. He's out January 2029 with the next inauguration.
- seanmcdirmid 6mo ago
  This assumes the American system survives intact until then, which is likely, but no longer feels guaranteed. Let’s see how the midterms go, if Trump is able to get away with throwing out results in states that don’t like him, we are in serious trouble.
- maest 6mo ago
  The Americans will keep voting like they have been. Trump's only a symptom
  - pseudohadamard 6mo ago
    I think it's a bit more than that, he's the accelerant.
salawat 6mo ago
Thinking too small. Look at the opportunity cost incurred by over focusing the military on Iran. That's force and munitions not going to Ukraine, not usable to protect Taiwan, the extension of hostilities will be essentially the equivalent of an attack on our NATO and SEA allies, if they can't get their shipping through the Strait. Russian oil is no longer sanctioned by the U.S... This is Putin's wet dream. The unmaking of NATO played out in realtime. Our President could not be a more transparent Russian asset if he tried. With every day, those in the Kremlin are probably rejoicing at this ally they've found they don't even need to seemingly pressure to do their bidding. Even if this is all coincidence and it's really just his dementia driving this. I hope everyone who voted for him is really happy with what they're getting.
UncleMeat 6mo ago
Trump doesn't think like this. Trump decided to bomb Iran because Netanyahu told him that it'd be cool if he did it. He didn't have a coherent plan beyond "bombs cool." This is why we got the rapidly changing and totally incoherent set of plans for the war and the strategic objectives. Trump is incapable of understanding that he isn't winning at something. So we are getting a "no, fuck you" response. The most thought I could possibly imagine going into this is that Trump has seen that it is possible to extract wealth from shipping lanes and just decided that he deserves that now.
- techblueberry 6mo ago
  While I agree that Trump doesn't think like this, there are alot of other players in this game.
  - UncleMeat 6mo ago
    There are no other meaningful players in US politics. Everything is driven by Trump's id.
    - techblueberry 6mo ago
      Trump’s id is famous for biasing towards the perspective of the last person Trump talked to.
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
- tjpnz 6mo ago
  >Trump decided to bomb Iran because Netanyahu told him that it'd be cool if he did it. Netanyahu has compromising video footage of Trump from the Epstein files. That's why.
tim-tday 6mo ago
Isn’t this published in the plan? Not sure it’s a conspiracy when the plan is public.

amluto 6mo ago

> Especially when the US is a net exporter from oil and could conceivably protect domestic industries from the same? The oil companies would likely be extremely unhappy if they were not permitted to export their products.

techblueberry 6mo ago
True I mean it’s high risk and maybe dumb, but I wouldn’t put it past the current thought leaders to turn against traditional free market ideology.
- bigbadfeline 6mo ago
  >> tariffs... too directly put the blame on the president. Would starting a war with Iran... be a more solid mechanism? War puts the blame on the president even more directly. >> Especially when the US is a net exporter from oil and could conceivably protect domestic industries from the same? The US is a huge net importer of goods. The oil surplus is rather small, has been recorded only for the last 3 years and it can't meaningfully change the US balance of trade. > shocking energy and transportation prices, raising the costs of exports from every other country... and the US could conceivably protect domestic industries from the same? Nothing will be protected, quite the opposite, the US will be the country hardest hit by inflation because, given the huge net imports, we are the country that benefits the most from unimpeded trade and lower cost of production in other countries. Trumps tariffs didn't decrease the trade deficit, in fact the deficit for 2025 was significantly higher than the pre-covid 2019. The deficits for Feb and Mar 2025 were the highest monthly deficits in history, beating the previous records by almost 100%. >> Let’s say your goal was to reduce globalization "reducing globalization" is a meaningless term, reducing the standard of living is what matters, choking international trade will cause higher reduction in the US than in other countries. > I mean it’s high risk and maybe dumb, but I wouldn’t put it past the current thought leaders to turn against traditional free market ideology. "Ideology" is a fig leaf, what matters is the money and power in the hands of the most special interest groups, it's a small club and you ain't in it.

bediger4000 6mo ago

Trump's a lame duck. He's out January 2029 with the next inauguration.

seanmcdirmid 6mo ago
This assumes the American system survives intact until then, which is likely, but no longer feels guaranteed. Let’s see how the midterms go, if Trump is able to get away with throwing out results in states that don’t like him, we are in serious trouble.
maest 6mo ago
The Americans will keep voting like they have been. Trump's only a symptom
- pseudohadamard 6mo ago
  I think it's a bit more than that, he's the accelerant.

salawat 6mo ago

Thinking too small. Look at the opportunity cost incurred by over focusing the military on Iran. That's force and munitions not going to Ukraine, not usable to protect Taiwan, the extension of hostilities will be essentially the equivalent of an attack on our NATO and SEA allies, if they can't get their shipping through the Strait. Russian oil is no longer sanctioned by the U.S... This is Putin's wet dream. The unmaking of NATO played out in realtime. Our President could not be a more transparent Russian asset if he tried. With every day, those in the Kremlin are probably rejoicing at this ally they've found they don't even need to seemingly pressure to do their bidding. Even if this is all coincidence and it's really just his dementia driving this. I hope everyone who voted for him is really happy with what they're getting.

UncleMeat 6mo ago

Trump doesn't think like this. Trump decided to bomb Iran because Netanyahu told him that it'd be cool if he did it. He didn't have a coherent plan beyond "bombs cool." This is why we got the rapidly changing and totally incoherent set of plans for the war and the strategic objectives. Trump is incapable of understanding that he isn't winning at something. So we are getting a "no, fuck you" response. The most thought I could possibly imagine going into this is that Trump has seen that it is possible to extract wealth from shipping lanes and just decided that he deserves that now.

techblueberry 6mo ago
While I agree that Trump doesn't think like this, there are alot of other players in this game.
- UncleMeat 6mo ago
  There are no other meaningful players in US politics. Everything is driven by Trump's id.
  - techblueberry 6mo ago
    Trump’s id is famous for biasing towards the perspective of the last person Trump talked to.
- deleted 6mo ago
  [deleted]
tjpnz 6mo ago
>Trump decided to bomb Iran because Netanyahu told him that it'd be cool if he did it. Netanyahu has compromising video footage of Trump from the Epstein files. That's why.

tim-tday 6mo ago

Isn’t this published in the plan? Not sure it’s a conspiracy when the plan is public.