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That's assuming the model is actually as good as they say it is. Given the amount of AI researchers over the past 3 years claiming supernatural capability from
by Aperocky 7mo ago
That's assuming the model is actually as good as they say it is. Given the amount of AI researchers over the past 3 years claiming supernatural capability from the LLM they have built, my bayesian skepticism is through the roof.
- baq 7mo agodon't confuse bayesian skepticism with plain old contrarian bias. a true bayesian updates their priors, I'd say this is an appropriate time to do so. also don't confuse what they sell with what they have internally.
- Aperocky 7mo agoThere haven't been any priors to update so far. All LLMs got better for sure, but they are still definitively LLM and did not show any sign of having purpose. Which also made sense, because their very nature as statistical machines. Sometimes quantity by itself lead to transformative change... but once, not twice, and that has already happened.
- SubiculumCode 7mo agoAnthropic has behaved the least like this of the AI companies.
- Gigachad 7mo agoThey made a claim that 100% of code would be AI generated in a year, over a year ago.
- SpicyLemonZest 7mo agoThey were right, it's hit 100% at a number of large tech companies. (They missed their initial prediction of 90% 6 months ago, because the models then available publicly weren't capable enough.)
- hn_acc1 7mo agoPlease tell me those companies so I can find alternatives. I'm using AI every day and there's no way I would trust it do that.
- SpicyLemonZest 7mo agoThe transition is pretty complete at e.g. Google and Meta, IIUC. Definitely whoever builds the AI tools you're using every day isn't writing code by hand.
- Gigachad 7mo agoI really just don't believe it. I have not met anyone in tech who writes zero code now. The idea that no one at Google writes any code is such a huge claim it requires extraordinary evidence. Which none ever gets presented.
- SpicyLemonZest 7mo agoI'm surprised to hear that. One of us is in a bubble, and I'm genuinely not sure who. I have not met anyone in tech (including multiple people at Google) who does still write code. I've been recreationally interested in AI for a long time, which is a potential source of skew I suppose, but I do not and most people in my circles do not work on anything directly related to AI.
- Toutouxc 7mo agoStatistically, knowing multiple people at Google is, IMO, a pretty good sign you're in a bubble. Unless you know a few thousand other software developers.
- SpicyLemonZest 7mo agoAn entirely fair point that I really ought to keep in mind more often. Thanks for keeping me honest.
- SubiculumCode 7mo agoThat was a prediction. It was not a claim of their current capabilities. If that is the one you reach for then I feel my point has been made.