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Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge
- leonidasrup 6mo agoSimilar situation last year over Easter: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/clouds-shield-german-power-system-excessive-solar-feed-over-easter-french-grid-strained https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/clouds-shield-german-po...
- eigenspace 6mo agoGermany experiences negative electricity prices on a near daily basis now from spring through fall. This weekend, prices were more negative than usual, but still not that negative.
- leonidasrup 6mo agoIt really depends on the size and placement of the oversupply, this could cause localized grid overloading. "However, BDEW warned that around half of the new capacity came in the form of small-scale systems under 100 kilowatt each, which under current rules feed into the grid whatever they produce, without the option to curtail production when this is necessary to ensure grid stability." https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-adds-record-175-gw-solar-pv-2024-small-scale-units-problematic https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-adds-record-175... Smart electric meters for individual PV producers that signal and account for negative prices would help. e.g. if your balcony solar power pushes electricity during oversupply you pay penalty.
- eigenspace 6mo agoYeah. Going forward, I suspect the way to handle this will be requiring the small producers to join a "virtual power plant". It'll result in a lot of misinformed shrieking from people, but probably the way forward is to remove the guaranteed price subsidy for individual household producers, and make it so thar they have to join a VPP if they want to sell to the grid.
- scary-size 6mo agoIIIRC, new individual systems are already required to have the capability to wind down export based on external signals.
- leonidasrup 6mo agoIs this required even for PV systems under 7 kWp ? I could only find new regulations from March 2025 for PV systems over 7 kWp. https://www.mvv.de/photovoltaik/ratgeber/solarspitzengesetz-was-sich-fuer-neue-pv-anlagen-ab-maerz-2025-aendert https://www.mvv.de/photovoltaik/ratgeber/solarspitzengesetz-...
- scary-size 6mo agoI guess „it‘s complicated“. For our system, 6kWp with iMSys, the grid operator can cap the ingestion as they see fit. For systems over 7kWp, you are required to install a iMSys that allows them to cap. Systems without a iMSys must have the capability to cap to 60% (either at all times or „intelligently“ depending on your consumption). BUT if you install anything today, you most likely will install a iMSys anyway. Also export fees for 7kWp and below are a bit of a joke anyway.
- ash217 6mo agoAs if negative prices trickle down to the consumer. The electricity market is byzantine, rigged and has resulted in higher energy prices in the last 20 years.
- bombcar 6mo agoYou don't have a backyard aluminium smelter? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_smelting#Energy_use https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_smelting#Energy_use
- mcintyre1994 6mo agoIn the UK you can get energy plans with a price that updates every half hour, published a day ahead. From 12:30pm - 4pm today that price is negative. It was also negative for around 16 hours of Easter Sunday. https://www.octopriceuk.app/agile https://www.octopriceuk.app/agile
- api 6mo agoWhere’s profitable crypto mining when you need it? Back yard plasma furnace? Artificial diamond making? Aluminum smelting?
- HPsquared 6mo agoEven just a large water tank which you can choose when to add heat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_thermal_energy_storage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_thermal_energy_storag...
- rcxdude 6mo agoYou need something that's valuable, energy intensive, easy to stop and start, and cheap to build capacity for. Either or both of those last two tend to be the problem for most industrial processes (and also crypto mining).
- leonidasrup 6mo agoThere are may different energy storage systems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_storage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_storage There have wildly different prices for unit of stored energy and wildly different storage times. https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/energy/us-grid-energy-storage-factsheet https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/energy/us-grid... It's not cost effective run aluminum smelting only during peak electricity production.
- Hamuko 6mo agoDoes someone want to elaborate why it's interesting/important that wholesale electricity prices were low one day during a long weekend?
- SideburnsOfDoom 6mo agoEnergy prices being low is interesting and important right now, since we are undergoing a petrochemical energy price increase shock.
- flanked-evergl 6mo agoPrices being negative for one day does not make energy prices low. The "green shift" in Germany has increased the use of fossil fuels and the price of energy. From JP Morgan's 16th Annual Energy Paper, March 2026 https://cdn.jpmorganfunds.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/fighting-words-amv.pdf https://cdn.jpmorganfunds.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/... > In 2024 we estimated that had Germany not decommissioned nuclear power after the Fukushima accident, it would have needed 50% less electricity generation from fossil fuels, 84% less generation from imported natural gas, 27% less fossil fuel capacity and 42% less natural gas capacity. Another road less traveled: Germany’s electricity prices in 2024 were almost 25% higher than they would have been had the country kept its nuclear power online . And as shown below, Germany might not have experienced such a sharp increase in its electricity imports which are 2x higher than a decade ago as a share of consumption. > More nuclear shutdown repercussions: Germany’s industrial power prices were 3x higher than the US and China in 2024, and part of the reason why Germany has been experiencing the deindustrialization shown on the right.
- SideburnsOfDoom 6mo ago> Prices being negative for one day does not make energy prices low. My apologies, that was poorly worded - I didn't mean to imply that all energy prices were low across the board. Of course they are not. It's an interesting indicator, not (yet) a systemic change. And as I said in answer to the parent comment, it's a important subject right now because of the petrochemical price shock. Nevertheless, if I were to interpret your statement as unilaterally as you interpreted mine: you said "negative prices are not low prices", which is wrong as a matter of arithmetic.
- notTooFarGone 6mo agoIf it were just easy to buy a bunch of batteries and profit from this by selling the same energy during evening/night. But that is only reserved for the big players I guess.
- lostlogin 6mo agoI know someone who does this in Mew Zealand with power walls. He is retired and mostly just a hobby.
- eigenspace 6mo agoNo, it is not at all reserved for big players. You just need to get a dynamic price electricity contract, and a smart-meter in your home and you can do this right now.
- fifilura 6mo agoIn Sweden you can also register your battery to an aggregation service that makes money (and gives you a share) from balancing the grid. So there is not only a market for buy/sell, you can also be stand-by for charging your battery when grid frequency increases and consumption needs to increase.
- dgacmu 6mo agoI don't sell mine, but I time-shift with a small pile of batteries (about 10kWh) and it's pretty reasonable. I save about usd $30/month. It's basically a big ups that will pay for itself in ten years, and I get backup power.
- readthenotes1 6mo agoSo in 10 years when you have to buy new batteries, what do you expect the payoff time to reset to?
- dgacmu 6mo agoI don't. The batteries will last longer than 10 years. The 10 year typical advertised lifetime of lifepo4 is to 80% capacity, and I'll just keep on using them. The actual payoff calculation is a lot messier than that because you have to factor in the NPV of buying batteries vs. just throwing the money in the market, AND you have to be able to forecast that growth vs. growth in power prices. So the honest truth is I have no idea if it's going to be a net good investment vs other options. Fortunately, I don't have to care, because I bought the batteries for UPS runtime, which I value independent of the time-shifting. The time-shifting is just a way to squeeze money out of an investment I already made. Had I been going for payoff, there are cheaper battery/inverter options out there with a sub-5y payoff.
- asah 6mo agowhere's the bitcoin miners when you need them ??? /s
- closingreunion 6mo agoThey are experimenting with buying excess energy during low-demand or supply surges. https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/german-telecoms-giant-to-trial-using-excess-green-power-to-mine-bitcoin/2-1-1735062?zephr_sso_ott=GBUrm8 https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/german-telecoms-giant-to-t...
- cubefox 6mo ago> Excess electricity produced during periods of low consumption cannot yet be stored at scale, as battery capacity remains limited.
- red75prime 6mo ago...and batteries are unsuitable for seasonal storage.
- cubefox 6mo agoUnfortunately Germany closed down its nuclear power plants.
- __d 6mo agoThey would find it hard to compete with negative prices too.
- cubefox 6mo agoNot at all. The prices aren't negative during the night or on overcast days.
- adrianN 6mo agoEvery hour you don't run your nuclear power plant at full capacity you lose money. Nuclear power is mostly capex. You need to maximize utilization if you want to be profitable.
- cubefox 6mo agoIt's far worse not to have sufficient electricity during the night or on overcast days. You can just increase nuclear electricity prices during that time to make up for the lost revenue from sunny days.
- somedude895 6mo agoFor anyone thinking negative prices is a good thing: It's not. It's a panic signal because there are no takers for an oversupply of energy, making the grid unstable.
- nutjob2 6mo agoIt's a good thing if you can profit from it. It doesn't seem that hard. All you need is a load, but obviously harder as you increase the scale. Heck you could build some large bodies of water and boil them from time to time.
- praptak 6mo ago> Heck you could build some large bodies of water and boil them from time to time. Some suppliers already do that. When a power plant also supplies the city heating, it makes sense for them to put the power surplus into pre-heated water which they can store and later distribute to the buyers of the heat. Obviously this needs some huge and well insulated tanks. Here's an article (in Polish) about one built in Warsaw, 10TJ capacity: https://globenergia.pl/najwiekszy-wodny-magazyn-ciepla-w-europie-powstaje-w-warszawie/ https://globenergia.pl/najwiekszy-wodny-magazyn-ciepla-w-eur...
- adrianN 6mo agoHere is one in German for one in Berlin https://group.vattenfall.com/de/newsroom/pressemitteilungen/2022/deutschlands-groesster-waermespeicher-am-start https://group.vattenfall.com/de/newsroom/pressemitteilungen/...
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- mhitza 6mo ago1. They could export the surplus. No? 2. Isn't cheaper electricity a good thing for the manufacturing industry?
- l5870uoo9y 6mo ago[dead]
- flanked-evergl 6mo agoGerman excellence, shitting the bed both ways. From JP Morgan's 16th Annual Energy Paper, March 2026 https://cdn.jpmorganfunds.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/fighting-words-amv.pdf https://cdn.jpmorganfunds.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/... > In 2024 we estimated that had Germany not decommissioned nuclear power after the Fukushima accident, it would have needed 50% less electricity generation from fossil fuels, 84% less generation from imported natural gas, 27% less fossil fuel capacity and 42% less natural gas capacity. Another road less traveled: Germany’s electricity prices in 2024 were almost 25% higher than they would have been had the country kept its nuclear power online . And as shown below, Germany might not have experienced such a sharp increase in its electricity imports which are 2x higher than a decade ago as a share of consumption. > More nuclear shutdown repercussions: Germany’s industrial power prices were 3x higher than the US and China in 2024, and part of the reason why Germany has been experiencing the deindustrialization shown on the right. On the positive side we in Norway have 10x higher energy prices because we now have to export energy to Germany during the winter and then our water storage is empty in the summer so we get fucked both ways as well.
- leonidasrup 6mo agoDecision to decommissioned nuclear power was a political decision not economical, technological or ecological decision. Decision based on fear.
- Vektorceraptor 6mo agoGermany should use it to search for Marsenne primes
- amai 6mo agoFor absolutely no good reason bidirectional charging in Germany is still forbidden. Electric cars could be used to store and buffer the overproduction of electric energy. But no, the german burocrats forbid this solution. Ridiculous!
- ndsipa_pomu 6mo agoI thought that bidirectional charging increases the complexity of the equipment used for the electric grid and can introduce a fire risk in homes if the equipment or wiring is sub-standard or faulty. Basically, it's costly to implement.
- maxhille 6mo agoAFAIK regulatory changes were needed and implemented recently. Commercial offers for Vehicle to Grid started this month.
- ZeroGravitas 6mo agoAs with many of these renewable cause negative price stories, the data shows something they never talk about: https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/DE/72h/hourly https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/DE/72h/hourly That shows that they still had roughly 5% gas and 5% coal running at the lowest price point.
- Dagonfly 6mo agoSo many questionable comments in here. Negative prices have no effect on grid stability. It just means that the day-ahead market was cleared below 0, i.e. for every consumer (buyer) there is a producer (seller) selling at this price. The market is still balanced with consumption==production. Now, you can ask the question: Why are so many producers willing to sell below 0? That has to do with misplaced incentives. For older or home-installed renewables there is a feed-in tarrif which guarantees a fixed revenue at all times. So there is an incentive to sell even for negative market prices. Newer installations can't opt for the guaranteed revenue model with revenue during negative prices any more. Redispatch follows afterwards, if the market result clashes with physics: The physical grid can't transport the power from producer to consumer. There was no unusual amount of redispatch during easter. Source: I work on this stuff.
- thyristan 6mo ago> It just means that the day-ahead market was cleared below 0 No, it doesn't. The article is explicitly about intraday-prices. So day-ahead clearance made invalid assumptions about generations and consumption that were not met during the day. This kind of miscalculation does require additional (costly) redispatch measures to mitigate the overproduction, and it can affect grid stability.
- Dagonfly 6mo agoYou are right that intraday went even more negative than day-ahead. But I disagree about the rest of your comment. A spread between day-ahead and intraday does not imply additional redispatch. Only some of it might have been countertrading by the grid operators. The redispatch was not extraordinary: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power_redispatch/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&redispatch=redispatch_internal&month=04 https://energy-charts.info/charts/power_redispatch/chart.htm...
- MasterScrat 6mo agoClearly they need more datacenters!