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I don't think China leadership thinks it needs to invade Taiwan. Competing against an hyper-specialized country is hard, but if they manage to produce chips 90%

by orwin 7mo ago

I don't think China leadership thinks it needs to invade Taiwan. Competing against an hyper-specialized country is hard, but if they manage to produce chips 90% as good as Taiwan, the later is in for a wild economic ride, which will probably end up as Taiwan as an autonomous Chinese region without firing any guns.

Markoff 7mo ago
exactly, it's very naive some folks fall for this China invading Taiwan narrative, just look what happened with Hong Kong, it had size of like 30% of Chinese economy (when they took over), which is why they agreed with autonomy, now it's down to like what - 3%? basically irelevant ordinary develoepd CN city, same will happen with Taiwan, people will vote with their wallets in the end especially if the other option is support from US gerontocracy ruled by crazies people thinking China needs to invade Taiwan are very short-sighted thinking in western 5 year election cycles, which don't work in China, China has all the time in the world to wait unlike these western marketing products for 1-2 terms they call politicians (and I don't write it as some China admiration, just stating the facts their political system works different way whether you like it or not, but I would for sure prefer EU making deals with China instead of US also regarding security, they are more reliable not abusive partner)
- orwin 7mo ago
  Never thought about it, but i see where it is coming from. Even after my own trip to China i still thought China would invade Taiwan sooner or later, because the idea is deeply ingrained in my mind. It is only recently that i thought about it a bit, and even a successful invasion would be at least as bad for China as Tibet invasion was. So maybe their leadership grows complacent and dumb, which may happen, or Taiwan will just rejoin China naturally during a global economic crisis.
- thenthenthen 7mo ago
  HK is extremely important to China, it is basically it’s wallet and only way to get cash in and out.

by orwin 7mo ago

Markoff 7mo ago

exactly, it's very naive some folks fall for this China invading Taiwan narrative, just look what happened with Hong Kong, it had size of like 30% of Chinese economy (when they took over), which is why they agreed with autonomy, now it's down to like what - 3%? basically irelevant ordinary develoepd CN city, same will happen with Taiwan, people will vote with their wallets in the end especially if the other option is support from US gerontocracy ruled by crazies people thinking China needs to invade Taiwan are very short-sighted thinking in western 5 year election cycles, which don't work in China, China has all the time in the world to wait unlike these western marketing products for 1-2 terms they call politicians (and I don't write it as some China admiration, just stating the facts their political system works different way whether you like it or not, but I would for sure prefer EU making deals with China instead of US also regarding security, they are more reliable not abusive partner)

orwin 7mo ago
Never thought about it, but i see where it is coming from. Even after my own trip to China i still thought China would invade Taiwan sooner or later, because the idea is deeply ingrained in my mind. It is only recently that i thought about it a bit, and even a successful invasion would be at least as bad for China as Tibet invasion was. So maybe their leadership grows complacent and dumb, which may happen, or Taiwan will just rejoin China naturally during a global economic crisis.
thenthenthen 7mo ago
HK is extremely important to China, it is basically it’s wallet and only way to get cash in and out.