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Show HN: We're building an AI hedge fund
- charliememe99 6mo agoWhats the goal of this though?
- rallies 6mo agoTwo goals. - First is to actually evaluate whether these LLMs have any intelligence around investing. If you actually give them all the data, can they do well? Can they beat the market? I'm not sure, we're testing that. - My thesis is that they will actually beat the market (I know a lot of you will disagree). If that's the case, how can we invest a lot of resources in building the best harness, tool calling, etc to enable these models to invest.
- pinkmuffinere 6mo ago> If you actually give them all the data What does "all the data" mean here? I see you mentioned SEC posts. What about news articles, twitter / blog / other posts, general info on the industries, etc? I assume these are simulated trades, not real trades being executed. How accurately do you take into account trading fees, time from order-decision to order-placement, and things like this? I would be interested to see the same test run on some prediction market (kalshi / polymarket / etc). In the stock market, a rising tide lifts all boats, so it's easy to deceive yourself about how well you've done, vs how important initial timing was. I suspect that prediction markets will eliminate that source of noise, since it's truly a 0 sum game. That said, it also adds lots of complication, insider trading will eat into your performance more, etc.
- dbs 6mo agoThats not how it works. LLMs get you to average. LLMs are not good at decision making under uncertainty.
- rallies 6mo agoFounder here: YC actually had an "AI hedge fund" idea in one of their recent "request for startups" post. We've been working on evaluating the capabilities of frontier models in investing money in the stock market. Results are encouraging and we're not doubling down on it. Happy to answer any questions.
- Kuyawa 6mo agoHow difficult would it be to do the same for the crypto world? I love the concept.
- rallies 6mo agoNot difficult at all. Nof1 has actually been doing that.
- pinkmuffinere 6mo ago> Results are encouraging and we're not doubling down on it. Personally I believe LLM-assisted trading is destined to underperform passive indices, so I also would have moved on from this. But you say results were promising, so I'm interested to hear why you're not pursuing it further. Is it just that you have other things to focus on? Is there something else that's making you move on?
- Kye 6mo agoI was under the impression ML-driven trading was already widespread.
- rallies 6mo agoML driven is. LLM driven is still nascent, especially the idea that as large language models get more advanced, can they research and invest like a fund manager.
- htrp 6mo agoHow are you different from all the other quant funds?
- rallies 6mo agothere is no human in the loop, there is no high frequency trading. We're trying to have AI mimic what fund managers do: - lots of research - longer time horizons - zero humans in the loop, but explain every single thing you do.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- gambutin 6mo agoAre you hedging against the AI bubble?
- rallies 6mo agoThe AI models are. Somewhat.
- pinkmuffinere 6mo agoThe link doesn’t let me read the post without downloading the app?? I’m not 100%, but I bet that’s against HN rules, and at least against the spirit. I’m flagging it Edit: I don’t want you to feel excessively bad, but you should feel bad for hijacking a user forum that _in good faith_ entertains new ideas like yours! This kind of behavior destroys the ecosystem you’re benefiting from. Edit2: It’s fixed! Thanks @rallies!
- rallies 6mo agoI'm fixing it. Give me a minute, apologies. Edit (reply on your edit lol): you're right. Second edit: fixed now. No more walls anywhere.
- pinkmuffinere 6mo agoThankyou!! Will unflag
- add-sub-mul-div 6mo agoIt's an account with no activity here except for self promotion. Everyone should be flagging it. It's an advertisement.
- satvikpendem 6mo agoThanks, I flagged. OP, you need more activity than just submitting your own articles.
- rallies 6mo agoCruel. Was having a good day! I know it's my own thing, but it's free, and it was a lot of work.
- pinkmuffinere 6mo agoWelp, sorry it got taken down in the end. At any rate I feel it's significant enough effort to earn a space on HN one way or another -- maybe worth submitting through the 'main channel' if people really don't feel it belongs in Show HN.
- johnwhitman 6mo ago[flagged]
- rallies 6mo agoIn case it's not clear. This is an experiment to see how well can LLMs invest in the market through a lot of research. We give them tool calls to access every financial dataset that exists online, and also some money to manage. And we then see how well they do. The experiment started in November 2024.
- unohoo 6mo agois the leaderboard based on returns since november 24 ?
- rallies 6mo agocorrect.
- FreakLegion 6mo agoSPY is up at least as much as your Claude bot since the Nov 25 2024 start date, but you show it down 3%. If AI is both doing the trading and reporting the results, you...may have a problem.
- mrbluecoat 6mo agoGlad I didn't put my money on Qwen. -35% ouch
- rallies 6mo agohaha lol. I actually think it's doing better now. It was just too stubborn to exit its position for the first few months. It did that, and put some money into MSFT/JPM recently.
- charliememe99 6mo agoWhat the goal of this?
- vicchenai 6mo ago[flagged]
- rallies 6mo agoI agree. A couple of things. - We've built a local vector database with every SEC filing over the last few years. And we've built a tool call on top of that to allow these LLMs to read and query sec filings. - Have done the same for a lot of other data sources, just giving the LLM access to them and allowing it to spend some time to actually research.
- warmwaffles 6mo ago10-Ks are going to be written by LLMs increasingly soon. I wonder how this will impact LLMs reading them.
- joshstrange 6mo agoAre there multiple instances of each model running? Or at least more than 1? I'd be fascinated to see what multiple Claude instances would fare, would they all be up, or did this instance just get lucky?
- RhysU 6mo agoThe default page load hides plots for all models with negative returns? That's sketch.
- dbs 6mo agoEverything old is new again. These new AI “funds” remind me the applied research that was done in the 2000s with strategy search through genetic programming, startups like Logical Information Machines, even Peter Thiel had a macro hedge fund.
- fittingopposite 6mo agoWhat's their beta?