7 ms·

There are ups and downs in the prices of components. Often people forget that during COVID prices were high for SBCs because of supply chain issues. Video cards

There are ups and downs in the prices of components. Often people forget that during COVID prices were high for SBCs because of supply chain issues. Video cards just were not available in the UK and afterwards (every supplier had long lead times) and are still relatively expensive (at least there are now lower priced options). Raspberry Pis you couldn't get hold of and many people (Jeff Included) was using a website checking for availability which was non-existent for anything other than low end models. I remember 15-20 years ago when hard drive prices went up through the roof because there was a flood in Thailand and it too years for prices to come down. There is going to be supply chain issues due to the current Geopolitical situation (Helium comes out of the Gulf and that is need in chip manufacture) is also going to affect the price of components. Eventually in a few years (as the article states) the situation will change. It just sucks at the moment. TBH I am more worried about my ability to fill up the tank on my car as both Petrol and Diesel is unavailable locally. I can make do with whatever computer equipment I have.

zozbot234 6mo ago
> People are quick to forget that during COVID prices were high for SBCs because of supply chain issues. inb4 AI has the same supply chain effects as a worldwide pandemic. I guess those AI doomers that talked about it being the end of the world had it right!
- JollySharp0 6mo ago
  Doomers IMO are just click baiting. There is a saying that is often trotted out my economists "That the cure for high prices, is high prices". There is a consumer market and business need for DRAM outside of AI. Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to. It just going to take a bit of time for this to happen. My equipment is going to be fine for another few years. So I am going to just hang tight and make do with what I got for now.
  - dwattttt 6mo ago
    > Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to And those uses which fall short of the new threshold, e.g. hobbyist SBCs, slowly fall away.
    - JollySharp0 6mo ago
      In reality were they going to survive anyway? I would wager likely not. Raspberry PI is the defacto standard for SBCs. Almost all the other SBCs had significant problems usually around software support and also third party support e.g. Hats, cases etc.
  - Chyzwar 6mo ago
    Main producers actually reduced dram output in 2026. When you have few players with very high capital cost you will end up with cartels like light bulb cartel.
    - JollySharp0 6mo ago
      Someone will come in when the price goes up enough. It will take time, but it will happen. What people are complaining about is that the time for this to happen is too long. Oh look, there is a player coming into the market it seems: https://economy.ac/news/2026/02/202602288291#:~:text=If%20equipment%20deployment%20proceeds%20as,%2C%20SK%20hynix%2C%20and%20Micron. https://economy.ac/news/2026/02/202602288291#:~:text=If%20eq... EDIT: In fact many other chinese companies are now expanding into DRAM because of the high prices. Which confirms exactly what I said.
      - deleted 6mo ago
        [deleted]
      - andrekandre 6mo ago
        > chinese companies are now expanding into DRAM because of the high prices a good sign, but im guessing at some point these companies are gonna be tariffed heavily...
        JollySharp0 6mo ago
        Maybe they will. However people often claim that there won't be anyone to want to enter the market to take advantage of high DRAM prices when if they spent two minutes doing a web search they would discover that isn't true.
        FpUser 6mo ago
        >"a good sign, but im guessing at some point these companies are gonna be tariffed heavily..." In the US. The rest might do the other way. The US of course will try to do some arm twisting. Hopefully the world can learn to fight back.
        6mo ago
  - Forgeties79 6mo ago
    So are AI evangelists to be fair.
    - JollySharp0 6mo ago
      It is almost as if two or more things can be true at the same time.
      - deleted 6mo ago
        [deleted]
      - deleted 6mo ago
        [deleted]
      - deleted 6mo ago
        [deleted]
      - Forgeties79 6mo ago
        I’m not going to argue my comment was particularly substantive but these kinds of rude, canned meme-responses are not really appropriate here.
  - bee_rider 6mo ago
    I’m just going to try and hang tight as well. But I do wonder if DRAM companies should or should not respond to this pricing situation. The actual AI model training companies buying all the RAM aren’t profitable yet, right? It’s all investment, which can dry up at the drop of a hat.
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
  - xenadu02 6mo ago
    > Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to. Unless the capital cost to compete is too high and the risk of the existing manufacturers undercutting you is very real. Plus it can take 5-10 years or more to build a new fab, debug/iterate your process, then start shipping product. Markets are prone to natural distortions. This is one form of that. It can be perfectly natural for all potential competitors to choose not to compete no matter how much demand exists. Frankly I'd expect nationalization of some of the DRAM makers before we see the rise of useful competitors. The more likely scenario is government pressure, up to and including arresting executives, to rattle the cages of the existing players who are way better placed to expand production quickly for relatively low capex. Not that I think any action is likely in the short term. My guess is the existing players are betting on an AI bubble pop so they don't see the use in really expanding capacity only to be left with idle fabs later. None of us really knows.
ttul 6mo ago
This time is different. https://ca.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/#ram.ddr5.6000.2x32768 https://ca.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/#ram.ddr5.60... The price for a couple of 32GB sticks is now over $1200 after being stable at about $200 for several years until last September. That's not a blip; that's 6-fold hike and there is no sign it is slowing down any time soon.
- JollySharp0 6mo ago
  Did you not read what I said? I couldn't even get a replacement video card at any price during the height of COVID and believe you I had the money to pay for one. I couldn't even get a Raspberry PI (any model) for about a year. They were constantly out of stock. > That's not a blip; that's 6-fold hike and there is no sign it is slowing down any time soon. How does that invalidate anything I said? As states in the article this will change, it will take years but it isn't forever. I find it hard to believe that people here cannot make do with whatever hardware they already have. I also don't believe those small SBCs would have survived long term anyway. Most people just use a Raspberry PI. It is either a MiniPC or a Raspberry PI.
  - meroes 6mo ago
    Ya I mean gfx card was pretty bad during Covid. Discord groups that had real-time line counts and pictures of the line at most best buys across the country (US). The only way I got one was overpaying and a lottery system that bundled it with other hardware because they knew everyone would still buy it. It was impossible to buy online normally as you needed some kind of automated way to buy it before stock zeroed the minute it was posted. You could pay a scalper for a gfx card, but stores had none. Now, stores have RAM at least.
  - Dylan16807 6mo ago
    > Did you not read what I said? I couldn't even get a replacement video card at any price during the height of COVID and believe you I had the money to pay for one. You're comparing to memory sticks that went up 6x. If you were offering anywhere near 6x MSRP and you couldn't get a video card... I don't believe you. https://www.pcmag.com/news/scalpers-have-sold-50000-nvidia-rtx-3000-gpus-through-ebay-stockx https://www.pcmag.com/news/scalpers-have-sold-50000-nvidia-r... https://www.pcmag.com/news/read-it-and-weep-heres-how-bad-nvidia-gpu-prices-got-in-a-single-year https://www.pcmag.com/news/read-it-and-weep-heres-how-bad-nv... These show GPUs available for 1.5-2.5x price, which fits what I remember. > I couldn't even get a Raspberry PI (any model) for about a year. https://picockpit.com/raspberry-pi/why-are-raspberry-pi-prices-so-high-will-it-improve/ https://picockpit.com/raspberry-pi/why-are-raspberry-pi-pric... I didn't look into Pi prices a whole lot, but this suggests they were continuously available for 2-3x price.
gtowey 6mo ago
I remember that literally everything, including basic necessities like food and housing jumped 30% higher overnight and never really returned to pre COVID prices. It erased about a decade worth of wage increases for most people. I think the doomers are probably anticipating another round of that and they're probably right.

zozbot234 6mo ago

> People are quick to forget that during COVID prices were high for SBCs because of supply chain issues. inb4 AI has the same supply chain effects as a worldwide pandemic. I guess those AI doomers that talked about it being the end of the world had it right!

JollySharp0 6mo ago
Doomers IMO are just click baiting. There is a saying that is often trotted out my economists "That the cure for high prices, is high prices". There is a consumer market and business need for DRAM outside of AI. Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to. It just going to take a bit of time for this to happen. My equipment is going to be fine for another few years. So I am going to just hang tight and make do with what I got for now.
- dwattttt 6mo ago
  > Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to And those uses which fall short of the new threshold, e.g. hobbyist SBCs, slowly fall away.
  - JollySharp0 6mo ago
    In reality were they going to survive anyway? I would wager likely not. Raspberry PI is the defacto standard for SBCs. Almost all the other SBCs had significant problems usually around software support and also third party support e.g. Hats, cases etc.
- Chyzwar 6mo ago
  Main producers actually reduced dram output in 2026. When you have few players with very high capital cost you will end up with cartels like light bulb cartel.
  - JollySharp0 6mo ago
    Someone will come in when the price goes up enough. It will take time, but it will happen. What people are complaining about is that the time for this to happen is too long. Oh look, there is a player coming into the market it seems: https://economy.ac/news/2026/02/202602288291#:~:text=If%20equipment%20deployment%20proceeds%20as,%2C%20SK%20hynix%2C%20and%20Micron. https://economy.ac/news/2026/02/202602288291#:~:text=If%20eq... EDIT: In fact many other chinese companies are now expanding into DRAM because of the high prices. Which confirms exactly what I said.
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
    - andrekandre 6mo ago
      > chinese companies are now expanding into DRAM because of the high prices a good sign, but im guessing at some point these companies are gonna be tariffed heavily...
      - JollySharp0 6mo ago
        Maybe they will. However people often claim that there won't be anyone to want to enter the market to take advantage of high DRAM prices when if they spent two minutes doing a web search they would discover that isn't true.
      - FpUser 6mo ago
        >"a good sign, but im guessing at some point these companies are gonna be tariffed heavily..." In the US. The rest might do the other way. The US of course will try to do some arm twisting. Hopefully the world can learn to fight back.
      - 6mo ago
- Forgeties79 6mo ago
  So are AI evangelists to be fair.
  - JollySharp0 6mo ago
    It is almost as if two or more things can be true at the same time.
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
    - Forgeties79 6mo ago
      I’m not going to argue my comment was particularly substantive but these kinds of rude, canned meme-responses are not really appropriate here.
- bee_rider 6mo ago
  I’m just going to try and hang tight as well. But I do wonder if DRAM companies should or should not respond to this pricing situation. The actual AI model training companies buying all the RAM aren’t profitable yet, right? It’s all investment, which can dry up at the drop of a hat.
- deleted 6mo ago
  [deleted]
- xenadu02 6mo ago
  > Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to. Unless the capital cost to compete is too high and the risk of the existing manufacturers undercutting you is very real. Plus it can take 5-10 years or more to build a new fab, debug/iterate your process, then start shipping product. Markets are prone to natural distortions. This is one form of that. It can be perfectly natural for all potential competitors to choose not to compete no matter how much demand exists. Frankly I'd expect nationalization of some of the DRAM makers before we see the rise of useful competitors. The more likely scenario is government pressure, up to and including arresting executives, to rattle the cages of the existing players who are way better placed to expand production quickly for relatively low capex. Not that I think any action is likely in the short term. My guess is the existing players are betting on an AI bubble pop so they don't see the use in really expanding capacity only to be left with idle fabs later. None of us really knows.

ttul 6mo ago

This time is different. https://ca.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/#ram.ddr5.6000.2x32768 https://ca.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/#ram.ddr5.60... The price for a couple of 32GB sticks is now over $1200 after being stable at about $200 for several years until last September. That's not a blip; that's 6-fold hike and there is no sign it is slowing down any time soon.

JollySharp0 6mo ago
Did you not read what I said? I couldn't even get a replacement video card at any price during the height of COVID and believe you I had the money to pay for one. I couldn't even get a Raspberry PI (any model) for about a year. They were constantly out of stock. > That's not a blip; that's 6-fold hike and there is no sign it is slowing down any time soon. How does that invalidate anything I said? As states in the article this will change, it will take years but it isn't forever. I find it hard to believe that people here cannot make do with whatever hardware they already have. I also don't believe those small SBCs would have survived long term anyway. Most people just use a Raspberry PI. It is either a MiniPC or a Raspberry PI.
- meroes 6mo ago
  Ya I mean gfx card was pretty bad during Covid. Discord groups that had real-time line counts and pictures of the line at most best buys across the country (US). The only way I got one was overpaying and a lottery system that bundled it with other hardware because they knew everyone would still buy it. It was impossible to buy online normally as you needed some kind of automated way to buy it before stock zeroed the minute it was posted. You could pay a scalper for a gfx card, but stores had none. Now, stores have RAM at least.
- Dylan16807 6mo ago
  > Did you not read what I said? I couldn't even get a replacement video card at any price during the height of COVID and believe you I had the money to pay for one. You're comparing to memory sticks that went up 6x. If you were offering anywhere near 6x MSRP and you couldn't get a video card... I don't believe you. https://www.pcmag.com/news/scalpers-have-sold-50000-nvidia-rtx-3000-gpus-through-ebay-stockx https://www.pcmag.com/news/scalpers-have-sold-50000-nvidia-r... https://www.pcmag.com/news/read-it-and-weep-heres-how-bad-nvidia-gpu-prices-got-in-a-single-year https://www.pcmag.com/news/read-it-and-weep-heres-how-bad-nv... These show GPUs available for 1.5-2.5x price, which fits what I remember. > I couldn't even get a Raspberry PI (any model) for about a year. https://picockpit.com/raspberry-pi/why-are-raspberry-pi-prices-so-high-will-it-improve/ https://picockpit.com/raspberry-pi/why-are-raspberry-pi-pric... I didn't look into Pi prices a whole lot, but this suggests they were continuously available for 2-3x price.

gtowey 6mo ago

I remember that literally everything, including basic necessities like food and housing jumped 30% higher overnight and never really returned to pre COVID prices. It erased about a decade worth of wage increases for most people. I think the doomers are probably anticipating another round of that and they're probably right.