6 ms·

This is particularly funny if you consider petrodollar to be a bad deal for US, not a good one. Ironically, if yuan becomes new petroleum currency, it might hur

by d3ckard 6mo ago

This is particularly funny if you consider petrodollar to be a bad deal for US, not a good one. Ironically, if yuan becomes new petroleum currency, it might hurt Chinese long term.

high_na_euv 6mo ago
Why?
tharmas 6mo ago
>Ironically, if yuan becomes new petroleum currency, it might hurt Chinese long term. Agreed. Which is why the Chinese do NOT want their currency to become the Petrodollar or world's reserve currency. They know that that is what destroyed US Manufacturing. China wants to maintain their manufacturing dominance. They've seen what de-industrialization has done to the US.
- CrzyLngPwd 6mo ago
  https://www.ft.com/content/c948b978-c22b-44b7-ba3d-4798e641e673?syn-25a6b1a6=1 https://www.ft.com/content/c948b978-c22b-44b7-ba3d-4798e641e...
  - roncesvalles 6mo ago
    >Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status "Kill all the sparrows"
    - CrzyLngPwd 6mo ago
      "jim crow laws"
- ImJamal 6mo ago
  How are you connecting the petrodollar and US manufacturing? US manufacturing was destroyed because companies closed their factories in the US and used factories in China because labor was cheaper and they were less regulated.
  - lvass 6mo ago
    Because it increases US workers relative (to other countries) wage. Though with current automation levels this may be a lesser problem.
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
  - mekdoonggi 6mo ago
    Petrodollar creates demand for dollars. This is demand that no other currency gets. That's why US production is expensive vs other countries. China labor is cheaper and it is less regulated, but the petrodollar exacerbates the problem.
  - d3ckard 6mo ago
    Under normal conditions, when your economy becomes less competitive, your currency gets depreciated, increasing competitiveness. Unless of course everybody is forced to buy your currency to get an essential resource. This causes: - the currency to maintain value better - puts you in position of other countries having to maintain a trade surplus with you so they can actually purchase said resource - the oil producers end up with great amounts of your currency, which they have to spend, getting a political foothold in your country. Petrodollar almost certainly was devastating to US economy. And like most resource curses, it's like a drug - you need to stop taking it to get better, but it will hurt as hell.
vincnetas 6mo ago
long term in a sense of centuries? i think they can afford this.
cjbgkagh 6mo ago
The petrodollar confers a huge advantage to the US, which is the whole point of it. It soaks up liquidity and allows the US to export inflation which allows it to be in the insanely profitable business of printing money. An argument could be made that this is corrupting and economically distorting to society resulting in a net negative but there is no guarantee that the same corruption would undermine China in a timely manner. I think the effect would be rather muted provided that the US remains world hegemon but if the US would lose the petrodollar and credible force projection at the same time we will shift from the current looting stages of collapse to the free for all stage of collapse. Or put another way, from a managed decline to an unmanaged decline.
- d3ckard 6mo ago
  It's not advantage, it makes for artificial demand for your currency, which completely screws up all the relevant metrics and makes you unable to actually inflate the currency when getting less competitive. It's resource curse on steroids.
  - cjbgkagh 6mo ago
    We are assuming a resource curse on steroids, the ability to sell the ‘resource’ is used to distort the economy and pay for the cost of running an empire. The US chooses to do this because it is controlled by those who benefit from this not for the long term benefit of the country. Saying it’s not an advantage is to assume those in control want to have manufacturing in the US, while such noises are made there is very little action beyond capricious crony capitalism tariffs that no normal business can possibly rely on.
    - d3ckard 6mo ago
      They very much want to have manufacturing, since it’s a requirement for war. They just don’t realize it. Plus, it is a conflict between all the extra money to spend and long term state welfare.
      - 6mo ago
FpUser 6mo ago
Or not. It depends on policies other than just being reserved currency
0xpiguy 6mo ago
[dead]
maxglute 6mo ago
Petro-yuan =/= reserve currency. USD reserve = print USD for everything liquidity to sustain debt financed existence where Triffin hollows out industry, and financialize everything because having stupid amount of liquidity incentivizes certain behaviors. Petro-yuan = PRC gives swap lines to trusted partners to buy oil denominated in yuan in exchange for things like resources. Hormuz ships ~1 trillion USD worth energy that needs "swapping" - incidentally PRC imports around ~2-3 trillion, more than enough to cover. So think petro-yuan = PRC gives trusted countries with resources that PRC bonds credit lines to buy yuan denominated energy (possibly at discount), in return they guarantee PRC resources or other commercial/geopolitical arrangements. It will be narrow, not like USD brrrting reserves. This benefits PRC because get to have leverage over "need" transactions (countries need energy to survive, it's no negotiate) while US keeps supporting "want" transactions by reserve debt servicing blackhole that US cannot extricate itself from until it debases / technical defaults. PRC best game plan is... assume privileged part of exorbitant privilege, while leaving US the exorbitant.
- kasey_junk 6mo ago
  The problem with that plan is that no one wants to trade hard commodities for a currency that can’t be spent. One part of the dollars appeal is that it spends the world over. The sanctioned countries frequently have more liberal access to dollars than to unsanctioned yuan. So no one is going to take up a lot of yuan trade unless that changes or they are forced to. But that puts China in a bind. Liberalizing their currency is going to require very careful and slow actions, China threads this needle now in a very fraught way. If they openly start trading oil at any real size in yuan that will break their peg as you’ll be able to trade through the oil markets. This is the main reason there isn’t more petro yuan already, it’s bad for China.
  - fakedang 6mo ago
    You can buy from China though. And China is the largest import trading partner for the majority of countries in the world. They literally don't need to do anything to prop up a "petro-yuan".
elzbardico 6mo ago
Yes, but for a consumption addicted society like the US, an abrupt end to the petrodolar would be an incredibly traumatic event. Think about it, every single mother fucking year, the US roughly buys 1 trillion dollars more on services and goods from the rest of the world, than it sells. It has this privilege/curse basically because the US dollar IS the world's global commerce and finance currency.

by d3ckard 6mo ago

This is particularly funny if you consider petrodollar to be a bad deal for US, not a good one. Ironically, if yuan becomes new petroleum currency, it might hurt Chinese long term.

high_na_euv 6mo ago

Why?

tharmas 6mo ago

>Ironically, if yuan becomes new petroleum currency, it might hurt Chinese long term. Agreed. Which is why the Chinese do NOT want their currency to become the Petrodollar or world's reserve currency. They know that that is what destroyed US Manufacturing. China wants to maintain their manufacturing dominance. They've seen what de-industrialization has done to the US.

CrzyLngPwd 6mo ago
https://www.ft.com/content/c948b978-c22b-44b7-ba3d-4798e641e673?syn-25a6b1a6=1 https://www.ft.com/content/c948b978-c22b-44b7-ba3d-4798e641e...
- roncesvalles 6mo ago
  >Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status "Kill all the sparrows"
  - CrzyLngPwd 6mo ago
    "jim crow laws"
ImJamal 6mo ago
How are you connecting the petrodollar and US manufacturing? US manufacturing was destroyed because companies closed their factories in the US and used factories in China because labor was cheaper and they were less regulated.
- lvass 6mo ago
  Because it increases US workers relative (to other countries) wage. Though with current automation levels this may be a lesser problem.
- deleted 6mo ago
  [deleted]
- mekdoonggi 6mo ago
  Petrodollar creates demand for dollars. This is demand that no other currency gets. That's why US production is expensive vs other countries. China labor is cheaper and it is less regulated, but the petrodollar exacerbates the problem.
- d3ckard 6mo ago
  Under normal conditions, when your economy becomes less competitive, your currency gets depreciated, increasing competitiveness. Unless of course everybody is forced to buy your currency to get an essential resource. This causes: - the currency to maintain value better - puts you in position of other countries having to maintain a trade surplus with you so they can actually purchase said resource - the oil producers end up with great amounts of your currency, which they have to spend, getting a political foothold in your country. Petrodollar almost certainly was devastating to US economy. And like most resource curses, it's like a drug - you need to stop taking it to get better, but it will hurt as hell.

vincnetas 6mo ago

long term in a sense of centuries? i think they can afford this.

cjbgkagh 6mo ago

The petrodollar confers a huge advantage to the US, which is the whole point of it. It soaks up liquidity and allows the US to export inflation which allows it to be in the insanely profitable business of printing money. An argument could be made that this is corrupting and economically distorting to society resulting in a net negative but there is no guarantee that the same corruption would undermine China in a timely manner. I think the effect would be rather muted provided that the US remains world hegemon but if the US would lose the petrodollar and credible force projection at the same time we will shift from the current looting stages of collapse to the free for all stage of collapse. Or put another way, from a managed decline to an unmanaged decline.

d3ckard 6mo ago
It's not advantage, it makes for artificial demand for your currency, which completely screws up all the relevant metrics and makes you unable to actually inflate the currency when getting less competitive. It's resource curse on steroids.
- cjbgkagh 6mo ago
  We are assuming a resource curse on steroids, the ability to sell the ‘resource’ is used to distort the economy and pay for the cost of running an empire. The US chooses to do this because it is controlled by those who benefit from this not for the long term benefit of the country. Saying it’s not an advantage is to assume those in control want to have manufacturing in the US, while such noises are made there is very little action beyond capricious crony capitalism tariffs that no normal business can possibly rely on.
  - d3ckard 6mo ago
    They very much want to have manufacturing, since it’s a requirement for war. They just don’t realize it. Plus, it is a conflict between all the extra money to spend and long term state welfare.
    - 6mo ago

FpUser 6mo ago

Or not. It depends on policies other than just being reserved currency

0xpiguy 6mo ago

[dead]

maxglute 6mo ago

Petro-yuan =/= reserve currency. USD reserve = print USD for everything liquidity to sustain debt financed existence where Triffin hollows out industry, and financialize everything because having stupid amount of liquidity incentivizes certain behaviors. Petro-yuan = PRC gives swap lines to trusted partners to buy oil denominated in yuan in exchange for things like resources. Hormuz ships ~1 trillion USD worth energy that needs "swapping" - incidentally PRC imports around ~2-3 trillion, more than enough to cover. So think petro-yuan = PRC gives trusted countries with resources that PRC bonds credit lines to buy yuan denominated energy (possibly at discount), in return they guarantee PRC resources or other commercial/geopolitical arrangements. It will be narrow, not like USD brrrting reserves. This benefits PRC because get to have leverage over "need" transactions (countries need energy to survive, it's no negotiate) while US keeps supporting "want" transactions by reserve debt servicing blackhole that US cannot extricate itself from until it debases / technical defaults. PRC best game plan is... assume privileged part of exorbitant privilege, while leaving US the exorbitant.

kasey_junk 6mo ago
The problem with that plan is that no one wants to trade hard commodities for a currency that can’t be spent. One part of the dollars appeal is that it spends the world over. The sanctioned countries frequently have more liberal access to dollars than to unsanctioned yuan. So no one is going to take up a lot of yuan trade unless that changes or they are forced to. But that puts China in a bind. Liberalizing their currency is going to require very careful and slow actions, China threads this needle now in a very fraught way. If they openly start trading oil at any real size in yuan that will break their peg as you’ll be able to trade through the oil markets. This is the main reason there isn’t more petro yuan already, it’s bad for China.
- fakedang 6mo ago
  You can buy from China though. And China is the largest import trading partner for the majority of countries in the world. They literally don't need to do anything to prop up a "petro-yuan".

elzbardico 6mo ago

Yes, but for a consumption addicted society like the US, an abrupt end to the petrodolar would be an incredibly traumatic event. Think about it, every single mother fucking year, the US roughly buys 1 trillion dollars more on services and goods from the rest of the world, than it sells. It has this privilege/curse basically because the US dollar IS the world's global commerce and finance currency.