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I think that Trump has given Iran effective tactical control over 20% of the world's energy supply. It's highly likely that they will use this to get their coun

I think that Trump has given Iran effective tactical control over 20% of the world's energy supply. It's highly likely that they will use this to get their country back on it's economic feet, definitely get the nuclear program finished, and force the end of the PetroDollar in the process. The appetite for the "boots on the ground" among the US public is almost zero. I doubt that even a large false flag would work at this point. The hardest part of Trump's 2 week war is going to be the first six years.

pinkblink 7mo ago
[flagged]
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  China has planned for and is insulated from petroleum supply chain disruption. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-reserves-global-energy-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-rese...
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > China has planned for and is insulated from petroleum supply chain disruption Planned for, yes. Insulated, no. China remains the world's largest importer of crude [1]. [1] https://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-oil-imports-by-country/ https://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-oil-imports-by-countr...
    - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
      Indeed, imports are for filling their ~1.3B barrel strategic reserve at favorable sanctioned priced imports. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-targets-steady-oil-output-more-gas-stockpiling-five-year-plan-2026-03-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-targets-steady... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_petroleum_reserve_(China) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_petroleum_reserve_(C...
      - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > Indeed, for filling their ~1.3B barrel strategic reserve That's 117 days, or four months, of imports [1]. Half of Hormuz-transiting oil ends up in China [2]. So even if China fully substitutes lost imports with reserves, that's not even taking them through the end of the year. (And China running down its reserves is a strategic win for America. It means they aren't available to buffer a blockade of the Straits of Malacca.) I don't even know of a credible economist in China arguing China is insulated from this shock. [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64544#:~:text=China%2C%20the%20world%E2%80%99s,while%20others%20decreased. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64544#:~:tex... [2] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-country/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-t...
        toomuchtodo 7mo ago
        China’s Edge in an Oil Shock: Electric Cars and Renewables - https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/business/china-oil-cars.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/business/china-oil-cars.h... | https://archive.today/UBP8L https://archive.today/UBP8L - March 16th, 2026 Implications of the Conflict in the Middle East for China’s Energy Security - https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/implications-of-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east-for-chinas-energy-security/ https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/implications-of-the-co... - March 4th, 2026 Ember Energy: China - https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/china/ https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/china/ - February 2026 China’s LNG imports were dropping before this crisis. China’s LNG imports fell 12% in 2025 despite remaining world’s top buyer - https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2025/12/30/11168190/analysis-china-s-lng-imports-fell-12-in-2025-despite-remaining-world-s-top-buyer/ https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2025/12/30/11168... - December 30th, 2025 (I agree there will be some pain, but argue that China has sufficiently prepared for a fossil supply chain disruption of this magnitude, while also having the industrial state capacity to achieve a more favorable long term trajectory; they are deploying ~400GW+ of renewables annually at current deployment rates)
        JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
- archagon 7mo ago
  This user keeps creating new accounts, getting downvoted, and replacing the content of their comments with a period. Why???
  - Terr_ 7mo ago
    The most charitable explanation is that they are concerned about their own privacy or identifiability,Bl but ultimately it is a Dick Move™ to other participants. It's the kind of late-edit things that spurs me to include quotes in replies.
JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> highly likely that they will use this to get their country back on it's economic feet, definitely get the nuclear program finished Yes on feet. No on nuclear. Iran's economy, for the near term, is trashed. It's going to need to choose between sovereighty and wealth. If it chooses the formewr, it lacks the resources to complete the project. If it chooses the latter, it probably goes with China, which means its nuclear programme will be constrained. > force the end of the PetroDollar in the process Sigh. Petrodollar hypothesis hasn't been a thing for decades. Various countries price and settle oil in currencies other than dollars. Dollar demand due to oil is a vanishing fraction of total international dollar demand. Like, oil could swap to being entirely traded in Bitcoin and it might make the next Fed meeting's agenda.
- Jean-Papoulos 7mo ago
  >Petrodollar hypothesis hasn't been a thing for decades. https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/the-dominant-dollar-faces-a-backlash-in-the-oil-market-0f151e28 https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/the-dominant-dollar-f... 80% of oil trade in 2023 in dollars. Mostly importantly, the gulf states do in exchange for US security guarantees, which Trump just blew up in spectacular fashion. Decades of Middle Eastern policy have just been undone because of the US half-committing to this war.
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > 80% of oil trade in 2023 in dollars Compare oil trading as a fraction of dollar volumes in the 1970s, when petrodollar was a thing, to today. Also, the JPMorgan Chase estimate is almost certainly too high for dollar volumes in oil trading–I sat on a desk in Connecticut almost two decades ago and we traded oil settled for in sterling. > gulf states do in exchange for US security guarantees This is still 1970s geopolitics. The Gulf states get U.S. security guarantees in exchange for basing, foreign policy suzerainty, et cetera. We don't need Gulf money to finance our deficit anymore. (See: your article re. the UAE.) Petrodollar is a fun thing to talk about. But it hasn't had explanatory or policy value since the Cold War. American consumption and capital markets drive global dollar demand. The petrodollar, if it has any use, is as a Big Mac index for general dollar use. It's a signal, not a driver.
ares623 7mo ago
In a span of weeks, the "normie" world has seen just how much power Iran actually has.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > the "normie" world has seen just how much power Iran actually has The weird thing is practically every strategist has known this since the 1980s. Iran's geography means as long as it controls its Gulf-coast border, it can control the Strait.
  - ares623 7mo ago
    Yes. Unfortunately for majority of voters, unless it impacts them directly they won't believe it. I hope countries (or rather, voters) around the world are waking up to just how helplessly dependent they are on a resource they do not own and have to beg and scrape from others.
    - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
      Do we have evidence of polls moving in favour of renewables?
      - defrost 7mo ago
        Sure. Pakistan is a slam dunk for renewables, it's ground swell and up there given the lack of decent state level delivery infrastructure. It's a similar story across much of the developed world, easy to build out renewables from the ground up and good deals from China for countries of interest to the Belt and Road intititives. In Australia: 73% support renewables and batteries as the fastest way to lower people's power bills, compared to just 16% for nuclear reactors and 8% for new coal power and In 2018, 84% of Australians said the government should focus on renewables, even if we need to invest more in infrastructure to make the system more reliable. are typical bites from leading poll agencies. In the USofA ... dunno, that's more your sandbox - I suspect many hearts and minds have been captured by 50 years of the Koch Bros dunking on AGW and public transport leading to a broad excess of rolling coal types being mind tweakled by the Heritage Foundation and / or Taylor Sheridans Landman windmill rants, etc.
lifestyleguru 7mo ago
At least we know what was the topic of conversation between Trump and Putin in the presidential limousine in Alaska. "Vlad tell me more about that concept of special operation". At that point western world was still deluded it's some kind of sophisticated strategy to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
- tonyedgecombe 7mo ago
  I just hope that what is going on in Iran and Ukraine will make China think twice before going into Taiwan.
  - 1attice 7mo ago
    On the contrary, it makes such a move irresistible! Game theory at work: if your opponent is building hemispheric hegemony then you are existentially incentivized to do the same. Play the board game Risk sometime.

pinkblink 7mo ago

[flagged]

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
China has planned for and is insulated from petroleum supply chain disruption. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-reserves-global-energy-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-rese...
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > China has planned for and is insulated from petroleum supply chain disruption Planned for, yes. Insulated, no. China remains the world's largest importer of crude [1]. [1] https://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-oil-imports-by-country/ https://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-oil-imports-by-countr...
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    Indeed, imports are for filling their ~1.3B barrel strategic reserve at favorable sanctioned priced imports. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-targets-steady-oil-output-more-gas-stockpiling-five-year-plan-2026-03-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-targets-steady... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_petroleum_reserve_(China) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_petroleum_reserve_(C...
    - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
      > Indeed, for filling their ~1.3B barrel strategic reserve That's 117 days, or four months, of imports [1]. Half of Hormuz-transiting oil ends up in China [2]. So even if China fully substitutes lost imports with reserves, that's not even taking them through the end of the year. (And China running down its reserves is a strategic win for America. It means they aren't available to buffer a blockade of the Straits of Malacca.) I don't even know of a credible economist in China arguing China is insulated from this shock. [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64544#:~:text=China%2C%20the%20world%E2%80%99s,while%20others%20decreased. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64544#:~:tex... [2] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-country/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-t...
      - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
        China’s Edge in an Oil Shock: Electric Cars and Renewables - https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/business/china-oil-cars.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/business/china-oil-cars.h... | https://archive.today/UBP8L https://archive.today/UBP8L - March 16th, 2026 Implications of the Conflict in the Middle East for China’s Energy Security - https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/implications-of-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east-for-chinas-energy-security/ https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/implications-of-the-co... - March 4th, 2026 Ember Energy: China - https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/china/ https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/china/ - February 2026 China’s LNG imports were dropping before this crisis. China’s LNG imports fell 12% in 2025 despite remaining world’s top buyer - https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2025/12/30/11168190/analysis-china-s-lng-imports-fell-12-in-2025-despite-remaining-world-s-top-buyer/ https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2025/12/30/11168... - December 30th, 2025 (I agree there will be some pain, but argue that China has sufficiently prepared for a fossil supply chain disruption of this magnitude, while also having the industrial state capacity to achieve a more favorable long term trajectory; they are deploying ~400GW+ of renewables annually at current deployment rates)
        JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
archagon 7mo ago
This user keeps creating new accounts, getting downvoted, and replacing the content of their comments with a period. Why???
- Terr_ 7mo ago
  The most charitable explanation is that they are concerned about their own privacy or identifiability,Bl but ultimately it is a Dick Move™ to other participants. It's the kind of late-edit things that spurs me to include quotes in replies.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago

> highly likely that they will use this to get their country back on it's economic feet, definitely get the nuclear program finished Yes on feet. No on nuclear. Iran's economy, for the near term, is trashed. It's going to need to choose between sovereighty and wealth. If it chooses the formewr, it lacks the resources to complete the project. If it chooses the latter, it probably goes with China, which means its nuclear programme will be constrained. > force the end of the PetroDollar in the process Sigh. Petrodollar hypothesis hasn't been a thing for decades. Various countries price and settle oil in currencies other than dollars. Dollar demand due to oil is a vanishing fraction of total international dollar demand. Like, oil could swap to being entirely traded in Bitcoin and it might make the next Fed meeting's agenda.

Jean-Papoulos 7mo ago
>Petrodollar hypothesis hasn't been a thing for decades. https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/the-dominant-dollar-faces-a-backlash-in-the-oil-market-0f151e28 https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/the-dominant-dollar-f... 80% of oil trade in 2023 in dollars. Mostly importantly, the gulf states do in exchange for US security guarantees, which Trump just blew up in spectacular fashion. Decades of Middle Eastern policy have just been undone because of the US half-committing to this war.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > 80% of oil trade in 2023 in dollars Compare oil trading as a fraction of dollar volumes in the 1970s, when petrodollar was a thing, to today. Also, the JPMorgan Chase estimate is almost certainly too high for dollar volumes in oil trading–I sat on a desk in Connecticut almost two decades ago and we traded oil settled for in sterling. > gulf states do in exchange for US security guarantees This is still 1970s geopolitics. The Gulf states get U.S. security guarantees in exchange for basing, foreign policy suzerainty, et cetera. We don't need Gulf money to finance our deficit anymore. (See: your article re. the UAE.) Petrodollar is a fun thing to talk about. But it hasn't had explanatory or policy value since the Cold War. American consumption and capital markets drive global dollar demand. The petrodollar, if it has any use, is as a Big Mac index for general dollar use. It's a signal, not a driver.

ares623 7mo ago

In a span of weeks, the "normie" world has seen just how much power Iran actually has.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> the "normie" world has seen just how much power Iran actually has The weird thing is practically every strategist has known this since the 1980s. Iran's geography means as long as it controls its Gulf-coast border, it can control the Strait.
- ares623 7mo ago
  Yes. Unfortunately for majority of voters, unless it impacts them directly they won't believe it. I hope countries (or rather, voters) around the world are waking up to just how helplessly dependent they are on a resource they do not own and have to beg and scrape from others.
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    Do we have evidence of polls moving in favour of renewables?
    - defrost 7mo ago
      Sure. Pakistan is a slam dunk for renewables, it's ground swell and up there given the lack of decent state level delivery infrastructure. It's a similar story across much of the developed world, easy to build out renewables from the ground up and good deals from China for countries of interest to the Belt and Road intititives. In Australia: 73% support renewables and batteries as the fastest way to lower people's power bills, compared to just 16% for nuclear reactors and 8% for new coal power and In 2018, 84% of Australians said the government should focus on renewables, even if we need to invest more in infrastructure to make the system more reliable. are typical bites from leading poll agencies. In the USofA ... dunno, that's more your sandbox - I suspect many hearts and minds have been captured by 50 years of the Koch Bros dunking on AGW and public transport leading to a broad excess of rolling coal types being mind tweakled by the Heritage Foundation and / or Taylor Sheridans Landman windmill rants, etc.

lifestyleguru 7mo ago

At least we know what was the topic of conversation between Trump and Putin in the presidential limousine in Alaska. "Vlad tell me more about that concept of special operation". At that point western world was still deluded it's some kind of sophisticated strategy to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

tonyedgecombe 7mo ago
I just hope that what is going on in Iran and Ukraine will make China think twice before going into Taiwan.
- 1attice 7mo ago
  On the contrary, it makes such a move irresistible! Game theory at work: if your opponent is building hemispheric hegemony then you are existentially incentivized to do the same. Play the board game Risk sometime.