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Perfect example of a base rate fallacy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy What percentage of Git
by Aurornis 8mo ago
Perfect example of a base rate fallacy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
What percentage of GitHub activity goes to GitHub repos with less than 2 stars? I would guess it's close to the same number.
- levocardia 8mo agoMy reaction as well -- I have a few dozen public repos of 100% human-written code, most are 0 stars!
- nickcw 8mo agoThe first thing I do when I make a new repo is star it myself ;-)
- bingemaker 8mo agoTell me about it!
- Imustaskforhelp 8mo agohttps://knowyourmeme.com/memes/obama-awards-obama-a-medal https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/obama-awards-obama-a-medal
- snthpy 8mo agoHalf way there
- jrod87 8mo agoI think this is best practice.
- cess11 8mo agoDidn't know I could do that, I assumed it wouldn't be permitted. This likely tripled the amount of stars I have.
- sleepybrett 8mo agoI have a few dozen org repos, of course none of them have stars, who stars their corporate repos?
- red_admiral 8mo agoMy private repos also have 0 stars! (But I don't use AI on them.)
- SegfaultSeagull 8mo agoStarring GitHub repos considered harmful.
- tlogan 8mo agoThe actual number is that 98% have less than 2 stars (0 or 1). About 90.25% has zero stars.
- wetoastfood 8mo agoHow do you know that?
- tlogan 8mo agohttps://ghe.clickhouse.tech/ https://ghe.clickhouse.tech/
- Bratmon 8mo ago[flagged]
- ZeWaka 8mo agoI think this is useful in answering the grandparent comment's question: stars : uniq(k) 1 : 14946505 10 : 1196622 100 : 213026 1000 : 28944 10000 : 1847 100000 : 20
- nikcub 8mo agointeresting that you only need ~150 stars on a project for it to be in the top 1%
- 8mo ago
- ttul 8mo agoYeah. Most of my public repos have 0 stars. Most of what I write sucks.
- Joel_Mckay 8mo agoYeah, but knowing something sucks means you are probably reasonably competent at coding. =3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
- strongly-typed 8mo agoDoesn’t matter if the recruiter doesn’t call you back because you’re not a 1000x engineer.
- Joel_Mckay 8mo agoWhy would anyone settle for underpaid positions from an agency taking a 7% contract cut, and purging CVs from any external firm also contracting with their services. Most people figure out this scam very early in life, but some cling to terrible jobs for unfathomable reasons. =3
- akoboldfrying 8mo ago> Why would anyone settle for The answer to such questions is always that, given their circumstances, they have no realistic choice not to. This is very obvious, and it's frustrating to continually see people pretend otherwise.
- Joel_Mckay 8mo ago> they have no realistic choice not to If folks expect someone to solve problems for them, than 100% people end up unhappy. The old idea of loyalty buying a 30 year career with vertical movement died sometime in the 1990s. Ikigai chart will help narrow down why people are unhappy: https://stevelegler.com/2019/02/16/ikigai-a-four-circle-model-of-human-capital/ https://stevelegler.com/2019/02/16/ikigai-a-four-circle-mode... Even if folks are not thinking about doing a project, I still highly recommend this crash course in small business contracts https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVkLVRt6c1U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVkLVRt6c1U Rule #24: The lawyers Strategic Truth is to never lie, but also avoid voluntarily disclosing information that may help opponents. Best of luck =3
- runarberg 8mo agoThere is still a sampling bias if you compare blanket human written repos. I would guess people are far more likely to share their homework assignments, experiments, hackathon results, weekend toys, etc. as a public repo if they put some amount of work into it. I would guess minority of those would get any stars at all. If the whole thing was generated by AI in less then 20 minutes, I would guess they are more likely to simply throw it away when they are done with it. Personally I think comparing github stars is always going to be a fraught metric.
- zahrevsky 8mo agoOff topic, but it reminds me of another principle: every geographic heatmap is just a population map. https://xkcd.com/1138/ https://xkcd.com/1138/
- jamesfinlayson 8mo agoYep, every time I see a heatmap of Australian lotto winners - very high correlation with Australia's population.
- albert_e 8mo agoshouldn't a serious heatmap (or any comparative graph for that matter) normalize the stat being displayed versus the baseline population in that bucket? in otherwords, plot the percentage or average metric and not the absolute metric. e.g. number of lotto winners per thousand people living in that grid, percentage of starred repos as a percentage of all repos, per capita alcohol consumption, average screen-time etc. Edit: unless ofcourse the point of the heatmap is to show the population distribution itself. In which case the metric would be number of people per square kilometer or some such.
- withinboredom 8mo agoStill would just show where people live. If nobody lives there, you've got a null (or divide by zero) spot on the map ... so you just show where people live.
- patmorgan23 8mo agoYes, this is why we use per capita stats for basically everything.
- bonoboTP 8mo agoThat, or https://i.redd.it/soy72dye93o91.jpg https://i.redd.it/soy72dye93o91.jpg
- corysama 8mo agohttps://reddit.com/r/PeopleLiveInCities/ https://reddit.com/r/PeopleLiveInCities/
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- leptons 8mo agoActivity isn't a good measurement for this, because AI can vibeslop thousands of lines per day of code that isn't necessarily useful for anything but increasing activity.
- iheartbiggpus 8mo agoExactly, just pick one subset and make out as if a base rate is because of this one specific set. Backwards logic...
- hrmtst93837 8mo ago[flagged]
- faangguyindia 8mo agoWhen I first got a job, I asked the company okay, how many people are going to use the code i write? If the answer wasn't in hundreds of request per seconds, i wasn't interested in job. I found job at ad tech companies, pay wasn't any good but the challenges were immense. Most people write code, which will hardly be run by other people or even receive any customers.
- ebiester 8mo agoOne of the products my employer builds is used twice a year. People pay tens of thousands of dollars for the privilege of using it twice a year. It's tremendously valuable to be used twice a year. Value and use are not always synonymous.
- alexandre_m 8mo agoMy wife uses me twice a year.
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- louiereederson 8mo agoOP. I'm not a confident SQL user so encourage someone to double check this. From what I can tell have been 2.21x10^12 additions on GitHub in total, 6.36x10^11 of which are in repos with 2+ stars. That's about 29%. People earlier were comparing the star distribution of repos which is not really what this is about - it is about OUTPUT, as measured by additions. Interestingly, there are 21.37b commits in GitHub, implying 104 additions per commit. Per the dashboard, Claude is linked to 20.81m commits and 50.44b additions - or 2,424 additions/commit. So additions for Claude-linked repos is higher, and it's actually higher for repos with 0-1 stars (2,568 additions/commit for Claude, 91 for all GitHub). None of this is a smoking gun but aligns with the intuition that Claude is producing enormous amounts of code. TBD whether it is 'adding value'. Would be appreciative of anyone who verifies/invalidates this. https://play.clickhouse.com/ https://play.clickhouse.com/ https://ghe.clickhouse.tech/#clickhouse-demo-access https://ghe.clickhouse.tech/#clickhouse-demo-access