5 ms·

Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/5

Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.

mothballed 7mo ago
A few major actors in predictions markets (1) Recreational or addicted gamblers (2) Hedging your investments or exposure to an event by betting on it as insurance (3) Insiders (4) Information arbitrage (researchers, etc) Three (3) and Four (4) are probably the most important for conveying useful information in pricing. I see it as a good, not bad thing, they are involved.
- Insanity 7mo ago
  mh. Guess my view of betting is too naive. I wouldn't have expected anything beyond (1). With my usual addictive behaviour, I think it's prob best I stay away from that though.. :)
  - cwillu 7mo ago
    (1) provides an incentive for the rest to participate.
- CaptainNegative 7mo ago
  There could also be some degree of "(5) bandwagon effect" players, who pump money into an outcome specifically to get people talking about its possibility, thereby increasing its probability of coming into fruition.
- freejazz 7mo ago
  Can anyone point to any instance of anyone benefitting from the information conveyed in these prediction markets?
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
munk-a 7mo ago
I would be too - if we didn't have prior evidence of massive insider trading on prediction markets.
- nostromo 7mo ago
  Insider trading makes prediction markets more accurate, not less.
  - munk-a 7mo ago
    It also warps reality to adhere to the prediction markets. There was a famous rash of objects being thrown onto WNBA courts recently that was spurred on by the potential for financial gain.
a_ba 7mo ago
Just because it's a binary choice doesn't make it a 50/50 chance. Flipping a fair coin (50/50) is different from flipping a weighted coin (say 80/20) even though the possible outcomes are the same.
- Insanity 7mo ago
  No, but I'm just saying, people vote based on feels.
  - croes 7mo ago
    Insiders don‘t and you’re ignoring the reasons why insider trading is suspected. It’s not because they bet, because how and when they bet
  - gzread 7mo ago
    Yes, and they consistently lose money to insiders who vote based on actual knowledge.
standardUser 7mo ago
There's an entire academic field called statistics you seem to be forgetting all about.

mothballed 7mo ago

A few major actors in predictions markets (1) Recreational or addicted gamblers (2) Hedging your investments or exposure to an event by betting on it as insurance (3) Insiders (4) Information arbitrage (researchers, etc) Three (3) and Four (4) are probably the most important for conveying useful information in pricing. I see it as a good, not bad thing, they are involved.

Insanity 7mo ago
mh. Guess my view of betting is too naive. I wouldn't have expected anything beyond (1). With my usual addictive behaviour, I think it's prob best I stay away from that though.. :)
- cwillu 7mo ago
  (1) provides an incentive for the rest to participate.
CaptainNegative 7mo ago
There could also be some degree of "(5) bandwagon effect" players, who pump money into an outcome specifically to get people talking about its possibility, thereby increasing its probability of coming into fruition.
freejazz 7mo ago
Can anyone point to any instance of anyone benefitting from the information conveyed in these prediction markets?

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

munk-a 7mo ago

I would be too - if we didn't have prior evidence of massive insider trading on prediction markets.

nostromo 7mo ago
Insider trading makes prediction markets more accurate, not less.
- munk-a 7mo ago
  It also warps reality to adhere to the prediction markets. There was a famous rash of objects being thrown onto WNBA courts recently that was spurred on by the potential for financial gain.

a_ba 7mo ago

Just because it's a binary choice doesn't make it a 50/50 chance. Flipping a fair coin (50/50) is different from flipping a weighted coin (say 80/20) even though the possible outcomes are the same.

Insanity 7mo ago
No, but I'm just saying, people vote based on feels.
- croes 7mo ago
  Insiders don‘t and you’re ignoring the reasons why insider trading is suspected. It’s not because they bet, because how and when they bet
- gzread 7mo ago
  Yes, and they consistently lose money to insiders who vote based on actual knowledge.

standardUser 7mo ago

There's an entire academic field called statistics you seem to be forgetting all about.