3 ms·

> also the us debt is 38 trillion It's sort of like being given one fine that's $100, and one fine that's $250 billion. You may as well keep increasing the nu

> also the us debt is 38 trillion It's sort of like being given one fine that's $100, and one fine that's $250 billion. You may as well keep increasing the number of second fine, because in no earthly circumstance will I ever be able to pay it back.

coldtea 7mo ago
>You may as well keep increasing the number of second fine, because in no earthly circumstance will I ever be able to pay it back. When that's the case, you'd be surprised what happens when the breaking point comes. Or do you think countries haven't gone bankrupt before?
lithocarpus 7mo ago
mmm.. A better analogy would be this: You have $100k income, and $800k debt, on which you have to pay ~$40,000 interest every year. That takes up a good chunk of your income. But if the debt doubled, at the same interest rate, you could really be in trouble.
- darth_avocado 7mo ago
  If I pay $40K interest every year on my $100K salary, I’m in trouble. If I owe $80K in interest every year on my $100K salary, the bank is in trouble.
  - hyperhello 7mo ago
    Or are they, really?
  - moi2388 7mo ago
    Not if your income was partly “getting loans from the bank” and now the bank won’t lend you money anymore, which is more in line with what the debt means for the us.
fakedang 7mo ago
> because in no earthly circumstance will I ever be able to pay it back. Well at that point, all hell breaks loose - that's the Weimar story all over again. The minute the US isn't able to project power globally, and the minute the Gulf states shift even a single transaction away from the petrodollar, the USD is finished. At that point, it might not make sense for them to accept the USD or dollar-denominated debt, either because of constant devaluation or the pointlessness of holding onto US Treasuries (because the US won't pay its debt). No one would buy US debt as a safe haven any more, which means the US won't be able to fund its budget.
- darth_avocado 7mo ago
  You’re missing the magic sauce: every other government is also equally fiscally irresponsible.
  - fakedang 7mo ago
    Doubt. Western governments sure, but not Asian governments, who are the majority buyers of Middle Eastern oil.
    - Gud 7mo ago
      And also not all western governments..
- kasey_junk 7mo ago
  You’ve been able to buy gulf oil in non-us currency all along. You can buy it in yuan, pounds, euros etc. Dollar hegemony isn’t because of the petrodollar. It’s the other way around. The oil states throw off huge amounts of profit and oil is such a big market you need the dollars reach to service it.
  - fakedang 7mo ago
    You can't buy them off the bat from a petrostate. Heck, even China had to enter multi-year special negotiations with Saudi Arabia to even get a batch of oil sold in yuan terms. Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein were the two proponents of selling oil in euros, and look where that led them. The spot market is different but that's not where most of the world's oil is sold. > The oil states throw off huge amounts of profit and oil is such a big market you need the dollars reach to service it. The oil states prefer dollars (and have pegged their currency to the dollar) solely because of a number of historical decisions that enabled dollar hegemony, which made the oil states peg their currency to the dollar and prefer the USD. That's changing now, but only very recently and at a snail's pace.

coldtea 7mo ago

>You may as well keep increasing the number of second fine, because in no earthly circumstance will I ever be able to pay it back. When that's the case, you'd be surprised what happens when the breaking point comes. Or do you think countries haven't gone bankrupt before?

lithocarpus 7mo ago

mmm.. A better analogy would be this: You have $100k income, and $800k debt, on which you have to pay ~$40,000 interest every year. That takes up a good chunk of your income. But if the debt doubled, at the same interest rate, you could really be in trouble.

darth_avocado 7mo ago
If I pay $40K interest every year on my $100K salary, I’m in trouble. If I owe $80K in interest every year on my $100K salary, the bank is in trouble.
- hyperhello 7mo ago
  Or are they, really?
- moi2388 7mo ago
  Not if your income was partly “getting loans from the bank” and now the bank won’t lend you money anymore, which is more in line with what the debt means for the us.

fakedang 7mo ago

> because in no earthly circumstance will I ever be able to pay it back. Well at that point, all hell breaks loose - that's the Weimar story all over again. The minute the US isn't able to project power globally, and the minute the Gulf states shift even a single transaction away from the petrodollar, the USD is finished. At that point, it might not make sense for them to accept the USD or dollar-denominated debt, either because of constant devaluation or the pointlessness of holding onto US Treasuries (because the US won't pay its debt). No one would buy US debt as a safe haven any more, which means the US won't be able to fund its budget.

darth_avocado 7mo ago
You’re missing the magic sauce: every other government is also equally fiscally irresponsible.
- fakedang 7mo ago
  Doubt. Western governments sure, but not Asian governments, who are the majority buyers of Middle Eastern oil.
  - Gud 7mo ago
    And also not all western governments..
kasey_junk 7mo ago
You’ve been able to buy gulf oil in non-us currency all along. You can buy it in yuan, pounds, euros etc. Dollar hegemony isn’t because of the petrodollar. It’s the other way around. The oil states throw off huge amounts of profit and oil is such a big market you need the dollars reach to service it.
- fakedang 7mo ago
  You can't buy them off the bat from a petrostate. Heck, even China had to enter multi-year special negotiations with Saudi Arabia to even get a batch of oil sold in yuan terms. Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein were the two proponents of selling oil in euros, and look where that led them. The spot market is different but that's not where most of the world's oil is sold. > The oil states throw off huge amounts of profit and oil is such a big market you need the dollars reach to service it. The oil states prefer dollars (and have pegged their currency to the dollar) solely because of a number of historical decisions that enabled dollar hegemony, which made the oil states peg their currency to the dollar and prefer the USD. That's changing now, but only very recently and at a snail's pace.