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> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experie

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation. The other half of this is of course, the bubble. Everyone knows AI is a bubble. Everyone knows that sometime soon, Nvidia & friends are going to come crashing down. AI may be the future, but people don't have the trillions of dollars burning holes in their pockets to justify these valuations. Even AI execs are openly admitting there's a bubble. So there's heightened interest in the economy minus AI; What are things going to look like without the bubble? How much is AI hype propping up the economic indicators, if not the economy as a whole? The alarm being that the answers are "bad" and "a lot" respectively. While direct AI investment spending has a limited effect, so much of the US' spending is driven by those whose money is from assets (the rich and the retired), that the stock market's soaring has an outsized impact. And when the bubble bursts, the stock market crashes, and that spending vanishes.

reactordev 8mo ago
I go to bed dreaming of putting money in a 401k again…
ddxv 8mo ago
I upvoted the parent, read your comment, unvoted and upvoted yours. I think what you're saying describes how I feel exactly.
YinglingHeavy 8mo ago
Less: "its a bubble" More: "labor market and consumer spending is less meaningful than ever before" The masses are unable to truly internalize the latter.
- AngryData 8mo ago
  Less meaningful, or less represented? If you sell your foundation out beneath yourself, the entire structure might come down. No matter how valuable it is to sell that rebar out of the concrete now, or how many additions that money allows you to add on top, it is likely not a sound strategy long term.
- ludicrousdispla 8mo ago
  I recently learned that in the US there are now more private equity/VC funds than there are McDonald's locations, which may indicate that the majority of consumer spending is irrelevant to the top 'n'% https://www.thedailyupside.com/advisor/investing-strategies/there-are-now-more-pe-funds-than-mcdonalds-franchises-whats-behind-the-alts-explosion/ https://www.thedailyupside.com/advisor/investing-strategies/...
- SlinkyOnStairs 8mo ago
  Those are two separate things that reinforce eachother. Having high amount of spending come from the asset wealth is by itself not immediately a problem. Having a bubble is by itself not immediately a problem. It's the combination of the two that's dangerous.
Auracle 8mo ago
Question - has any previous bubble been so thoroughly called out as a bubble? The dotcom and 2008 real estate ones sure weren’t. Some people did, but not “everyone.”
- bulbar 8mo ago
  Could be thanks to the Internet and that most of the adults today use Internet and have experienced a bubble before.
tonyedgecombe 8mo ago
>People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy ... Wasn't there some polling recently that showed that most people thought they were doing well themselves but that everybody else was suffering. Clearly that doesn't add up and it's largely down to the overly negative tone of the news media.
hshdhdhj4444 8mo ago
The Biden administration missed this completely. They looked at headline numbers and saw that everything was improving and couldn’t understand why people were behaving as if we were in a recession. The current situation is a lot worse. Everything isn’t improving. It’s improving but more slowly, flat or getting worse. So the administration is reduced to pointing to the only things that are improving (albeit more slowly). Hence the Attorneh General’s infamous response in her congressional hearing on the Epstein files, that the Dow was over 50k. Ultimately it comes down to the K shaped economy. The upper arm of the K is doing better than the lower arm is doing worse, so the average is a rise, but in reality the number of people in the lower arm is significantly greater than the number of people in the upper, hence the “vibecession”.

reactordev 8mo ago

I go to bed dreaming of putting money in a 401k again…

ddxv 8mo ago

I upvoted the parent, read your comment, unvoted and upvoted yours. I think what you're saying describes how I feel exactly.

YinglingHeavy 8mo ago

Less: "its a bubble" More: "labor market and consumer spending is less meaningful than ever before" The masses are unable to truly internalize the latter.

AngryData 8mo ago
Less meaningful, or less represented? If you sell your foundation out beneath yourself, the entire structure might come down. No matter how valuable it is to sell that rebar out of the concrete now, or how many additions that money allows you to add on top, it is likely not a sound strategy long term.
ludicrousdispla 8mo ago
I recently learned that in the US there are now more private equity/VC funds than there are McDonald's locations, which may indicate that the majority of consumer spending is irrelevant to the top 'n'% https://www.thedailyupside.com/advisor/investing-strategies/there-are-now-more-pe-funds-than-mcdonalds-franchises-whats-behind-the-alts-explosion/ https://www.thedailyupside.com/advisor/investing-strategies/...
SlinkyOnStairs 8mo ago
Those are two separate things that reinforce eachother. Having high amount of spending come from the asset wealth is by itself not immediately a problem. Having a bubble is by itself not immediately a problem. It's the combination of the two that's dangerous.

Auracle 8mo ago

Question - has any previous bubble been so thoroughly called out as a bubble? The dotcom and 2008 real estate ones sure weren’t. Some people did, but not “everyone.”

bulbar 8mo ago
Could be thanks to the Internet and that most of the adults today use Internet and have experienced a bubble before.

tonyedgecombe 8mo ago

>People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy ... Wasn't there some polling recently that showed that most people thought they were doing well themselves but that everybody else was suffering. Clearly that doesn't add up and it's largely down to the overly negative tone of the news media.

hshdhdhj4444 8mo ago

The Biden administration missed this completely. They looked at headline numbers and saw that everything was improving and couldn’t understand why people were behaving as if we were in a recession. The current situation is a lot worse. Everything isn’t improving. It’s improving but more slowly, flat or getting worse. So the administration is reduced to pointing to the only things that are improving (albeit more slowly). Hence the Attorneh General’s infamous response in her congressional hearing on the Epstein files, that the Dow was over 50k. Ultimately it comes down to the K shaped economy. The upper arm of the K is doing better than the lower arm is doing worse, so the average is a rise, but in reality the number of people in the lower arm is significantly greater than the number of people in the upper, hence the “vibecession”.