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Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week o
by state_less 7mo ago
Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unless things turn around quickly, which I'm not seeing any indication of.
I'm curious if we'll get TACO Trump, or if he'll double down on this?
- roxolotl 7mo agoMy guess is that this time even if there’s a TACO you can’t turn back the clock on everything that’s happened. The tariffs are mostly an on/off switch. You can’t unbomb infrastructure.
- Terr_ 7mo agoOr easily un-convince people who've been bombed that they need to hold nearby trade hostage for retribution/protection.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- mtkd 7mo agoHeating oil in UK from one of main suppliers, for delivery next week, has gone from 60p/L to 130p+/L in last 7 days
- uncivilized 7mo agoHe’ll taco when he sees the stock market tanking
- brokensegue 7mo agogenie is out of the bottle on this one
- bhadass 7mo agobut will iran accept the taco? at this point, it seems like it may get ideological for them, and they play a different war (jihad) which would require diverting prolonged resources. we may not be able to simply just leave and revert to normal.
- tonyedgecombe 7mo agoIsrael is making the decisions here, there is no tacoing for them.
- eunos 7mo agoEven if Trump goes Taco, Khamenei Jr won't accept. Remember the adversary also get a vote.
- vrosas 7mo agoMojtaba will be dead within a month. What would it say about the entire operation if they just backed off and let Khamenei’s son take over?
- abraxas 7mo agoIt would tell us that they are incompetent buffoons which is exactly what they are.
- riffraff 7mo agoThat it was a stupid operation with a predictably useless outcome. But we also said that about the whole invading Greenland stuff, and it ended like that. And about the war in Afghanistan. And I would presume, about the Vietnam war. Trump will say he won and move on.
- tartoran 7mo ago> Trump will say he won and move on. Then Trump will move on and attack China maybe? Anyway, with Trump in office I expect to see more and more chaos coming.
- Intermernet 7mo agoCuba is next
- tastyface 7mo agoI imagine much of US/Israeli intel has been burned on the initial strike, and it's not that hard to hide someone in a bunker at the end of the day.
- 7mo ago
- lakrici88284 7mo ago[dead]
- kccqzy 7mo agoWhy care about oil when alternate fossil-fuel-free technologies have become mature? This could very well be the last straw to push many nations (except the U.S.) to massively buy Chinese solar panels and Chinese EVs to be oil independent.
- plastic-enjoyer 7mo agoBecause policies are not made by rational decisions but by lobbyists...
- kccqzy 7mo agoThat’s a United States phenomenon.
- kasey_junk 7mo agoChinese solar panels don’t help with plastics or industrial lubricants.
- kccqzy 7mo agoThe amount of oil used for plastics or lubricants is insignificant compared to the use of oil as energy. In the United States, lubricants use ~0.5% of all oil, and all industrial feedstock about 1%. Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.
- gerdesj 7mo agoInsignificant is its own minima (its an absolute) and doesn't need qualification. You're not from these parts, are you?
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- throwawaysleep 7mo agoAbout 80% of oil is burned in some way for fuel.
- rngfnby 7mo agoMy understanding is that, until the hits on Tehrans oil storage sites yesterday, the oil infrastructure has been spared. Nothing that isn't easy to repair. Ie the price increase we've seen so far os mostly pricing the closing of the staits and the risk of reduced production production is halted due to running out of storage (ie akin to a cpu "pipeline stall". But Iran got hit badly yesterday, with tar raining on the capital. If Iran retaliates against infrastructure...
- lumost 7mo agoThe US is not acting rationally on Iran, this is on top of a history of acting irrationally with regards to past treaties. The game theorists would tell you that Iran should impose costs for this in one way or another, the main avenue of which is economic costs. Iran may extend this cost imposition to US aligned states throughout the Gulf. It's a mess with limited exit ramps, Iran can likely keep bombing their neighbors and shipping blocked for years if they so choose.
- Intermernet 7mo agoThere was no urgency in the invasion of Iran. It was done partly because Israel wanted it, and partly as a convenient distraction. Nothing material had changed from the last decade. The US embassy was given instructions to get people out of Israel the day before it happened, and anyone who was paying attention knew exactly what that meant. Everything that is happening now was publicly predicted and modelled at least a decade ago. Look at Shimon Peres's continual warnings to the world regarding Netanyahu. This was expected and shouldn't be regarded as something novel. Just something abhorrent.
- stoneman24 7mo agoIf the wells have been throttled back or stopped. There can be issues when production is reduced (or even worse stopped), restarting & resuming the previous production rates can be very difficult and time consuming. There’s a lot of complex multi-phase physics that can prevent the restart. Sometimes wells, just don’t restart. I hope that you are right and we are just filling the storage tanks and waiting for the straits to re-open, so the hit to the market is minimised. Iran do seem to be losing but that doesn’t mean the US is winning. The US needs to get the oil/gas moving through the straits and on the market, otherwise there will be big hit at the gas pumps and other economic factors.
- testbjjl 7mo agoThey asked Trump what he thought could go wrong. His only response was appointing a leader worse than the last. That took just over a week and now our $1b per day is going to skyrocket when troops are deployed. Trump has to focus on federalism of elections to stop from being nurtured in November. There was never a plan and he fractured his base. I am not sure how this helps average Americans. Perhaps we’ll have some conflict with Cuba soon and China enters the frame.
- dboreham 7mo agoSincerely hope he isn't nurtured.
- maxerickson 7mo agoFederalism is the opposite of federal control, which I think you mean. Also, you probably mean neutered.
- testbjjl 7mo agoProves I am not AI? You’re right, fighting allergies at the moment in a tub full of OTC concoctions.
- bad_haircut72 7mo agoOn some weird level of irony this might cause a huge green transition