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My predictions for the end of this war: - The USA eventually declares some arbitrary "victory" condition. - Iran will be left even poorer, and much less able

My predictions for the end of this war: - The USA eventually declares some arbitrary "victory" condition. - Iran will be left even poorer, and much less able to defend itself conventionally, but will remain under the same regime. Very likely they give up cooperating with atomic energy inspectors and do what North Korea did to a acquire weapons. - Israel's ability to dictate US foreign and military policy will be degraded long term. What many commentators do not see is how anti-Israel younger consevatives trend in the US now. It will be decades or before a serious anti-Israel republican candidate will be fielded, but it is inevitable, and even your typical greatest-ally-wall-kissers will have to moderate themselves. Will be very interesting to see what the mid terms bring. Some on the American right are already talking about voting democrat to protest - MAGA was specifically sold to them as an antidote to necon middle eatern entanglements.

nradov 7mo ago
Iran won't be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. North Korea was under China's protection but no one is going to protect Iran. The USA, Israel, and maybe some of the Gulf states will continue occasionally "mowing the grass" whenever the threat level increases. (I'm not claiming that this is a good scenario, just a likely one.)
- bulbar 7mo ago
  [flagged]
  - LAC-Tech 7mo ago
    Aside from the fact that the Iranian Regime never said that...why exactly should westerners care about the fate of Israel? I know they think they are special, but to me they are just another West Asian country. I have zero reason to support them over Yemen, Lebanon, Iran, or any other state. Arguably I have more reason to resent them, considering how much money and blood we have spent furthering their cause and how ungrateful they are in return. No Mullah ever called me "goy".
    - donkeybeer 7mo ago
      The only "greatest ally" that sold secrets to china, attacked american ships and refused to apologize, has characters like Pollard as heroes, jailed and tortured the man who exposed their illegal theft of nuclear weapons tech from South Africa, ....
      - dlubarov 7mo ago
        > attacked american ships Ship, not ships. The USS liberty accident 58 years ago was the only instance. > refused to apologize Israel apologized the same day of the incident. They also paid $13m in reparations (much more if we adjust for inflation). > their illegal theft of nuclear weapons tech from South Africa There was no theft from South Africa. His conviction was for leaking info about the Israeli program.
        donkeybeer 7mo ago
        >Israel apologized the same day of the incident. They also paid $13m in reparations (much more if we adjust for inflation). That's the "public" view yes. Many survivors disagree of course. The entity who committed theft was Israel not Mordechai, however I reread it and it looks like it was a secret collaboration with South Africa not theft. But the main point is, why should you listen to whining about Iran having nukes from a country that blatantly lies about its own nukes and refuses to let its nukes be inspected? Iran is a much more responsible party clearly when it comes to the nuclear department. It's also very well known that Israel secretly sold western defence tech secrets to China. You seem to have mistakenly passed over part of my message that mentioned Pollard, so have a link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Pollard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Pollard
    - donkeybeer 7mo ago
      And you know what's the worst thing? I don't know if its my sample bias, but I see very rarely Israelis complaining about actual "gas the kikes white power" hateful antisemite filth which have actually risen in quantity quite a lot recently. The only people who get smeared with the antisemite label are people who hundreds of times even to the point of most normal people would stop seeing the distinction between jews and Israeli actions but they still clarify the various ways they aren't talking about jewish people or judaism as a religion but Israeli governments actions, and perfectly reasonable people like the Irish get labelled as "extreme antisemites". You know what signal this sends? If repeatedly clarifying the difference between jews in general and criminal actions of Israel gets the label of antisemite and actual blood and soil neo nazis get ignored then perhaps people should become actual loud and proud antisemites, this is what Israelis mindset signals to people.
- LAC-Tech 7mo ago
  I am not seeing a scenario were they can be stopped. They are already surviving under combined US/Israeli strikes. Short of being attacked with weapons of mass destruction... ... oh dear god this administration is dumb enough to try that, isn't it?
  - nradov 7mo ago
    Iran can be stopped. Building nuclear weapons plus delivery systems isn't easy and requires a major industrial effort. They won't be allowed to sustain that effort, or rebuild the air defenses necessary to protect it.
    - C6JEsQeQa5fCjE 7mo ago
      There is no reason to believe that they haven't already developed and worked out the details of all that, in case they'd ever need it. Now the US and Israel have killed the only man who was preventing it from being done, the late supreme leader. I cannot imagine the next supreme leader (that is about to be announced) not immediately cancelling the prohibition on building nuclear weapons (to be made public only after they've been built, ofc), and giving the order to build ~10 nuclear warheads (the amount that they can build based on the amount of 60% enriched fissile material they currently possess). With two nuclear powers relentlessly attacking them, it would be suicidal of them to not order the immediate building of nuclear weapons ASAP.
      - nradov 7mo ago
        You're really missing the point. Just because someone gives the order to develop nuclear weapons doesn't mean that their defense industrial base has the capacity to do it, or that it can be protected against future strikes. Furthermore, if Iran declared that it did possess working nuclear weapons that wouldn't be a deterrent: it would trigger an immediate and massive preemptive attack by the USA and Israel.
        C6JEsQeQa5fCjE 7mo ago
crooked-v 7mo ago
The problem the US and Israel now have is that no amount of preemptively declaring victory and withdrawing will make it safe to pass through the Straight of Hormuz again.
cosmicgadget 7mo ago
Think Iran will reopen the strait if the US leaves or remain interested in punishing the US and nearby states that supported the strikes?
anigbrowl 7mo ago
The US can't win without taking control of Iran's nuclear materiél. They can't do that without ground troops. And any ground invasion of Iran is going to be a clusterfuck of epic proportions.
keybored 7mo ago
Another war? Huh, what will that do for the mid term election? How interesting. Yet only one country in this comment is named a regime.

nradov 7mo ago

Iran won't be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. North Korea was under China's protection but no one is going to protect Iran. The USA, Israel, and maybe some of the Gulf states will continue occasionally "mowing the grass" whenever the threat level increases. (I'm not claiming that this is a good scenario, just a likely one.)

bulbar 7mo ago
[flagged]
- LAC-Tech 7mo ago
  Aside from the fact that the Iranian Regime never said that...why exactly should westerners care about the fate of Israel? I know they think they are special, but to me they are just another West Asian country. I have zero reason to support them over Yemen, Lebanon, Iran, or any other state. Arguably I have more reason to resent them, considering how much money and blood we have spent furthering their cause and how ungrateful they are in return. No Mullah ever called me "goy".
  - donkeybeer 7mo ago
    The only "greatest ally" that sold secrets to china, attacked american ships and refused to apologize, has characters like Pollard as heroes, jailed and tortured the man who exposed their illegal theft of nuclear weapons tech from South Africa, ....
    - dlubarov 7mo ago
      > attacked american ships Ship, not ships. The USS liberty accident 58 years ago was the only instance. > refused to apologize Israel apologized the same day of the incident. They also paid $13m in reparations (much more if we adjust for inflation). > their illegal theft of nuclear weapons tech from South Africa There was no theft from South Africa. His conviction was for leaking info about the Israeli program.
      - donkeybeer 7mo ago
        >Israel apologized the same day of the incident. They also paid $13m in reparations (much more if we adjust for inflation). That's the "public" view yes. Many survivors disagree of course. The entity who committed theft was Israel not Mordechai, however I reread it and it looks like it was a secret collaboration with South Africa not theft. But the main point is, why should you listen to whining about Iran having nukes from a country that blatantly lies about its own nukes and refuses to let its nukes be inspected? Iran is a much more responsible party clearly when it comes to the nuclear department. It's also very well known that Israel secretly sold western defence tech secrets to China. You seem to have mistakenly passed over part of my message that mentioned Pollard, so have a link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Pollard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Pollard
  - donkeybeer 7mo ago
    And you know what's the worst thing? I don't know if its my sample bias, but I see very rarely Israelis complaining about actual "gas the kikes white power" hateful antisemite filth which have actually risen in quantity quite a lot recently. The only people who get smeared with the antisemite label are people who hundreds of times even to the point of most normal people would stop seeing the distinction between jews and Israeli actions but they still clarify the various ways they aren't talking about jewish people or judaism as a religion but Israeli governments actions, and perfectly reasonable people like the Irish get labelled as "extreme antisemites". You know what signal this sends? If repeatedly clarifying the difference between jews in general and criminal actions of Israel gets the label of antisemite and actual blood and soil neo nazis get ignored then perhaps people should become actual loud and proud antisemites, this is what Israelis mindset signals to people.
LAC-Tech 7mo ago
I am not seeing a scenario were they can be stopped. They are already surviving under combined US/Israeli strikes. Short of being attacked with weapons of mass destruction... ... oh dear god this administration is dumb enough to try that, isn't it?
- nradov 7mo ago
  Iran can be stopped. Building nuclear weapons plus delivery systems isn't easy and requires a major industrial effort. They won't be allowed to sustain that effort, or rebuild the air defenses necessary to protect it.
  - C6JEsQeQa5fCjE 7mo ago
    There is no reason to believe that they haven't already developed and worked out the details of all that, in case they'd ever need it. Now the US and Israel have killed the only man who was preventing it from being done, the late supreme leader. I cannot imagine the next supreme leader (that is about to be announced) not immediately cancelling the prohibition on building nuclear weapons (to be made public only after they've been built, ofc), and giving the order to build ~10 nuclear warheads (the amount that they can build based on the amount of 60% enriched fissile material they currently possess). With two nuclear powers relentlessly attacking them, it would be suicidal of them to not order the immediate building of nuclear weapons ASAP.
    - nradov 7mo ago
      You're really missing the point. Just because someone gives the order to develop nuclear weapons doesn't mean that their defense industrial base has the capacity to do it, or that it can be protected against future strikes. Furthermore, if Iran declared that it did possess working nuclear weapons that wouldn't be a deterrent: it would trigger an immediate and massive preemptive attack by the USA and Israel.
      - C6JEsQeQa5fCjE 7mo ago

crooked-v 7mo ago

The problem the US and Israel now have is that no amount of preemptively declaring victory and withdrawing will make it safe to pass through the Straight of Hormuz again.

cosmicgadget 7mo ago

Think Iran will reopen the strait if the US leaves or remain interested in punishing the US and nearby states that supported the strikes?

anigbrowl 7mo ago

The US can't win without taking control of Iran's nuclear materiél. They can't do that without ground troops. And any ground invasion of Iran is going to be a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

keybored 7mo ago

Another war? Huh, what will that do for the mid term election? How interesting. Yet only one country in this comment is named a regime.