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I have no doubt that they didn't like that the regime, which is why they left. But this assassination is no guarantee of change for the better. Far from it.
by kubb 8mo ago
I have no doubt that they didn't like that the regime, which is why they left.
But this assassination is no guarantee of change for the better. Far from it.
- pinkmuffinere 8mo agoIt’s no guarantee, but it is a good opportunity. I’m half-Persian, and certainly not as closely connected as others, but it’s hard to see this as a bad thing. There’s a possibility I can go visit my family in Iran as a result of this. I haven’t had a good chance for that in like 4 years
- kubb 8mo agoI would defer the celebration until you can.
- empath75 8mo agoThe most likely situation is continuity. They just pick a new supreme leader. The second most likely situation is a civil war.
- reliabilityguy 8mo agoThere is also a possibility of a Venezuela-style cooperation.
- readthenotes1 8mo agoAdding Iranian oil back to the market will lower prices everywhere, including Russia. I'm not so sure the extra-heavy Venezuelan oil will be affected as much. Anyone know?
- alephnerd 8mo agoIndia used to use Venezuelan crude before the 2019 sanctions [0][1] India only shifted to using Russian oil in 2022 [2] after Venezuelan [3] and Iranian [4] oil sanctions were enacted, which was when both began increasing engagement with China. It's a similar story for South Korea [5] and Japan [6]. This helps reduce prices for ONG, as India is shifting back to Venezuelan crude which gives slack which South Korea and Japan can take advantage of, as India, Japan, and South Korea represent 3 of the 5 largest oil consumers globally. [0] - https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/ongc-awaits-instructions-about-restarting-operation-in-venezuela-sees-positive-movement/article70627753.ece https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/ongc-awaits-instr... [1] - https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/reliance-venezuelan-oil-imports-us-license/article70628080.ece/ https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/reliance-venezuel... [2] - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65553920 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65553920 [3] - https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/india-and-venezuela-grow-distant-post-us-sanctions https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/india-and-venezuela-gro... [4] - https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-tightens-sanctions-on-irans-oil-exports-how-india-will-respond/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-tightens-sanctions-... [5] - https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/09/13/south-korean-oil-refineries-hit-hard-by-iran-sanctions/ https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/09/13/south-korean-oil-refine... [6] - https://mei.edu/ar/publication/japan-and-middle-east-navigating-us-priorities-and-energy-security/ https://mei.edu/ar/publication/japan-and-middle-east-navigat...
- bsjaux628 8mo agoReminder: extra heavy oil means that there is more processing required to get useful materials out of it, which in turn becomes higher operational cost. So, if Iranian oil entered the market, prices would go down making Venezuelan oil non competitive (I believe the break even price for Venezuelan oil was close to 80$). At this moment the numbers don't add up to make companies go back into Venezuela given the price, uncertainty and past expiriences.
- roenxi 8mo agoIt is too early to know what "Venezuela-style cooperation" looks like. It hasn't even been 6 months since the US kidnapped Maduro; the base case is that Venezuela's leadership does more or less what they were going to do anyway under US diplomatic pressure. The US actually did something fairly similar in Iran; Trump had Soleimani blown up back in 2020. As we can see from the present situation, it failed to influence Iran in ways that the US thought were acceptable. It is rare for assassinations to have positive geopolitical ramifications.
- mda 8mo agoUnlikely, large proportion of population is brainwashed for 40 years. They will elect a "moderate" supreme leader, then business as usual.
- MichaelRo 8mo agoIn Romania it took some 10 years to reach some degree of functional democracy after the fall of communism and the execution on Ceaușescu, who coincidentally, just returned from the crowning of Khamenei, while learning, dictator-to-dictator, how to suppress a revolution: 1006 killed, though most of them not by the initial "Revolutionary Guards" reprisal but in the semi-civil war that followed. And that in a country/region without Islamic radicals trying to take over. So far, apart from Israel, no Middle East country has managed to function as a democracy. Turkey, the only Muslim majority who has the faintest chance of joining the European Union, only keeps stuff under control due to the army enforcing a secular state, which the liberal patsies in the West can't take, because authoritarianism is bad and diversity in accepting radical Islam creeping into our homeland is our strength.
- selimthegrim 8mo agoBosnia and Herzegovina, Albania and Kosovo won’t get into the EU?
- MichaelRo 8mo agoForgot they aren't already in EU.
- MichaelRo 7mo agoAlso I'm getting downvoted and don't really understand unless I fall back to experience from 30 years ago, after the Romanian revolution and fall of =~ 50 years of dictatorial regime (not that before that was much better, with small interruptions). At that time (1990), when everything seemed possible and a quick path to democracy and all that it brings (in the imaginary of the poor, oppressed people that we were) along with it, this guy came along: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion_Ra%C8%9Biu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion_Ra%C8%9Biu He ran for president in the first free elections and made some 0.5% or something. I remember him for his words which go along the "it will take 20 years at least, for democracy to settle in Romania". He was right on. Now, 30 years after, we have a strong, frile democracy. Everyone can run for president but not everyone can win, even if they could: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4x2epppego https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4x2epppego All things considered, I live a much, much better life now than 30 years ago during the communist dictatorship. Perfect? Far from it and perfection is a moving target. But we're definitely a solid democracy, and also definitely, it's a miracle the first 5-10 years didn't erupt in a full scale civil war. And the despised "revolutionary guards" had some involvement in making sure it didn't happen, so as much as you hate them, you need them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_clashes_of_T%C3%A2rgu_Mure%C8%99 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_clashes_of_T%C3%A2rgu_M...
- orthogonal_cube 8mo agoRemoval of the head of state is often a turning point. Either a regime becomes more extreme or the government collapses due to in-fighting as individuals attempt to gain control. I would hold back on any hopes until we see how the current government handles things. Intervention from other countries does not always lead to positive outcomes.
- tim333 8mo agoTrump seems to have thought it through a bit. Recent post: >...This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country. We are hearing that many of their IRGC, Military, and other Security and Police Forces, no longer want to fight, and are looking for Immunity from us. As I said last night, “Now they can have Immunity, later they only get Death!” Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves... The merge peacefully or die thing may motivate them.
- Rapzid 8mo agoCertainly people within the Trump administration have thought a lot about this.
- nullocator 8mo agoUh huh, and if you are an Iranian Policeman are you more concerned that the funny orange man yelling on the tv/phone is going to get you, or the mob forming outside your window? They might see it in their personal self interest to stay lock step with the former regime as a better form of self preservation than just surrendering to the population they've been abusing. It's not like the U.S. can offer them any actual immunity lmao.
- stefantalpalaru 8mo ago[dead]
- acjohnson55 8mo agoI hope that it works out for you and your family.
- swat535 8mo agoAs another Iranian living the West, I wish he would have been captured alive and stood trial. He should have answered for every single drop of blood on his hands. My 21 year old cousin was captured during the Mahsa uprising, she was sent to Evin prison, tortured for months. After she was released, we brought her to Canada and she was hospitalized for over a year. She will never be able to live a normal life again. Death was too merciful for Khamenei.
- _zagj 8mo agoMy condolences. Your cousin sounds very brave.
- gizajob 8mo agoWell he’s been slain like the dog that he was, alongside some family members - same as the families of those who were slain and tortured on his theocratic watch. Perhaps this is good evidence that Allah is just, even if Allah’s justice has to be delivered by the hands of the Israelis.
- temp8830 8mo ago[flagged]
- thomassmith65 8mo agoThis comment likely confuses Khomeini and Khamenei, and is inaccurate either way.
- throwaway2037 8mo agoWithout doxxing yourself, why were you unable to visit? I have known Persian expats a few times in my life, and they were always able to visit without issue.
- kj4211cash 8mo agoIf they have said anything against the regime on social media, they would be wise not to visit. I personally know many Persian expats who meet family in Turkey and have been anxious about going back.
- bewildered01 7mo ago[dead]
- phreeza 8mo agoNot OP but most common reason I've heard is military age males with unresolved mandatory military service status.
- throwaway2037 8mo agoOh good point! I knew some young Turkish men a while back that could not visit Turkey for similar reasons.
- pinkmuffinere 8mo agoHonestly I’m not sure I should say, sorry. Recent years have been worse than normal though, with lots of human rights violations, protests, protestors being tortured/killed, foreign nationals being held in prison/killed, etc.
- cnd78A 8mo agoA friend of mine, EU member, hasn't been able to visit USA because he was cricizing us gov (under BIdden), still not allowed. Ban and censorship isn't specific to Iran, many western nations love it too.
- throwawayheui57 8mo agoThere’s a difference between the ban where they don’t give you visa vs. censorship where they disappear you if you publicize your dissent. One must not conflate.
- IOT_Apprentice 7mo agoIf Israel & the US prevail, Israel will treat Iran as the do their other neighbors, bombing them whenever they feel like it and murdering your relatives there. Take a look at Syria where they installed the head of Al-Qaeda/HTS. The IDF has carried out 600 attacks there since 2024 till present. They have attacked the following areas since 2023: Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Syria & Yemen.
- rmm78 7mo agoNope, every action protects Israeli citizens from the Iran terrorist regime. Thanks to Trump Iran will soon be Israel's ally again. Jews & Persians have centuries of mutual respect, the islamists were just a temporary curse
- thomassmith65 8mo agoThey're not brain-damaged. They know that!
- oytis 8mo agoIt's not a given - e.g. AFAIK most turks in Germany support Erdogan
- bonzini 8mo agoA lot of the Persian diaspora is actually descendents of people who left in the 80s. There are certainly people who left 20 years ago or less but they're mostly secular as well.
- ahartmetz 8mo agoIf somebody tells you that they are Persian (I have met a few), you know their opinion right away: they prefer to associate with millennia of Persian history, not the modern (religious) state of Iran.
- throwaway2037 8mo ago> they're mostly secular as well Can you help me to understand your meaning of "secular" here? My counterpoint that will explain: Many Persian Jews left during/after the revolution and moved to Los Angeles. Many of those families are practicing Jews. I would not describe people like this as "secular"; I would call them "religious". Do I misunderstand your point?
- bonzini 8mo agoNote that the quote referred to people who left more recently and thus lived most if not all of their lives after the Islamic revolution. Quite often they'll drink beer or have their pizzas with ham just fine, women would not wear a hijab, and so on.
- ahartmetz 8mo agoIn both countries, the educated population likes the religious leader less than the uneducated population. In Germany, most Turkish immigrants are from rather basic backgrounds and most Iranian immigrants are from intellectual backgrounds. It makes a huge difference. In both countries of origin, the population is split much more evenly than what you see abroad. AFAIK, about 50% support the religious strongman in both countries.
- faramarz 8mo agoIt's less a revolution and more a matter of catching the tide of shifting world powers — and seizing a rare shot at building something other than the last failed experiment. New Iran, new experiment. You bet Iranians are euphoric right now. Some of the country's brightest intellectuals and political minds are sitting in Evin prison, and if all goes well, they're about to walk out and help shape what comes next. My dad is worried about the power vacuum, and he's right to be. His biggest concern is the border states and the narrative that ISIS is being funneled into the country to destroy any chance of organized transition. I desperately hope he's wrong. And I don't think he'll ever fully heal — few who lived through the first revolution will.
- overfeed 8mo ago> It's less a revolution and more a matter of catching the tide of shifting world powers — and seizing a rare shot at building something other than the last failed experiment The Arab spring wasn't that long ago, was it? We all saw how that turned out, but I suppose hope springs eternal. > You bet Iranians are euphoric right now I'm guessing the 50+ dead elementary school kids may put a damper on celebrations a bit.
- jacquesm 8mo agoThe last thing they should do is to import the Shah's exiled family member and make him their figurehead again. Both him and the mullahs are bad news.
- throwaway2037 8mo agoI think you are speaking about the last Shah's first son: Reza Pahlavi. You can read about his planned policy for Iran here: https://rezapahlavi.org/en https://rezapahlavi.org/en To quote: > For the transition from the Islamic Republic to a national, secular, and democratic government One idea is to transition to a secular democracy with a figurehead Shah like a northern European (or Japanese) monarchy. Also, my personal opinion: I think it is fine if they want to incorporate aspects of Islamic religious culture into their government. After all, it is their country. Example: The national parliament and political parties might be required to secular (at least in name), but they may wish to continue to support religious institutions using tax payer money, including masjids (places of prayer) and Islamic monasteries. An interesting point of comparison: (1) Malaysia isn't really secular (but they may claim it); (2) Singapore is fully secular; (3) Indonesia is secular (or "pan-religious"), but is still largely guided by Islamic relgious culture in their democractic systems.
- regnull 8mo agoIt’s a good start
- timtim51251 8mo agoThat why they are going beyond that and going after the IRGC
- ndiddy 8mo agoYeah I'm not sure why people think that the Iranian government never considered any sort of continuity for what happens when their 86 year old ruler dies. It's not like they're ants that are all helpless without their sole supreme leader.
- dismalaf 8mo agoThe fact a leader can be assassinated at any moment by the US probably changes the succession plan slightly... I imagine any potential successor is thinking hard about whether it's a job they actually want.
- Digit-Al 8mo agoThe problem is that you are not dealing with rational people here, you are dealing with extreme religous fanatics. They are either not afraid of dying and becoming martyrs, or they are afraid but dare not show it.
- breppp 8mo agoThat's certainly how their own propaganda portrays them, however if you see the amount of corruption in that effective kleptostate, you'd understand they care much about life
- mbgerring 8mo agoYou talking about the Iranians or the Americans here?
- maest 8mo agoThis is "Our blessed homeland" type of mischaracterisation [1]. Their wanting to continue their state against and oversized enemy is irrational and religious fanaticism, our wanting to continue our state against an oversized for is noble and martyrsome. I'm not saying either view is right, but reducing the Iranian government to irrational religious fanatics is intellectually uncurious and unempathetic. [1] - https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/002/355/607/670 https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/002/355/607/670
- Haven880 8mo agoAnother Ayatollah is being ushered in. This is no news. Khameni is old and without the missile, he would be dead soon. This sttike is just bonus to galvanize support for Ayatollah. So in a way Trump prolong the regime. And consequence from this: every other middle east countries now starting their nuke program. Good luck.
- anovikov 8mo agoWell, in any case, it is a guarantee that Iran will be less of a danger for other nations if the regime falls, and that people inside of the country will suffer - because either pro-Western or any other government is bound to be a lot weaker, and there will be a lot more violence and economic disruption, eventually economic degradation. It should avenge the emigrants, and provide sufficient punishment for those in Iran for enabling this regime in the first place. Let's not have illusions about it. There is no way to build a sustainable democracy in a country that never had such leanings and is not culturally/religiously predisposed to it, and can't be physically coerced into it with boots on the ground. Achievable goals are punishment, and neutering.
- SanjayMehta 8mo agoIt depends on how well the regime brainwashed its people over the last 50 years. The majority of Iranians haven't any experience of anything else - I think around 55% are under 40 years old. There's a US born professor Marandi who said in an interview a few weeks ago that the regime had put in place succession plans, including for himself. I'm hopeful but skeptical that they will change for the better.
- twocommits 8mo ago[flagged]