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77 suspicious positions across 60 wallets, 13 brand-new accounts appearing 40 hours before the browser launch. First confirmed case of a major tech company firi
by 7777777phil 8mo ago
77 suspicious positions across 60 wallets, 13 brand-new accounts appearing 40 hours before the browser launch. First confirmed case of a major tech company firing over prediction market trades.
I wrote about why prediction markets have a structural insider trading problem that nobody's solved yet: https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-absolute-insider-mess-of-prediction-markets/ https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-absolute-insider-mess-of...
- throwaway5752 8mo agoPrediction markets exist to bypass gambling restrictions and monetize insider trading. It isn't a problem, it is their raison d'etre.
- gtowey 8mo agoJinx!
- juleiie 8mo agoYeah but someone has to give the money to the insider traders. Betting and insider gambling wouldn’t work if people were educated and just didn’t gamble and so never used these platforms in the first place. It’s an old question of whether government is responsible to protect people from themselves or should we give everyone freedom to go bankrupt in this specific way if they so desire. I don’t know if there is a healthy way to gamble really. With drugs and substances at least there is some continuous spectrum but you either gamble your money or not.
- logicchains 8mo ago>I don’t know if there is a healthy way to gamble really. The majority of gamblers keep it within limits, only a small minority lack that control and inevitably end up impoverishing themselves.
- juleiie 8mo agoThe majority of people can’t even control their daily screen time, yet we are supposed to believe they can masterfully restrain their urges when money and dopamine are on the line? Nothing I’ve seen indicates human impulse control is that bulletproof. Furthermore, the 'I have it under control' narrative isn't proof of a healthy habit; it’s practically the universal slogan of active addiction.
- somenameforme 8mo agoMany, I suspect the overwhelming majority, of the markets are impossible to engage in insider trading in. So it's genuinely just an interesting way to monetize expertise. Chess is a great example. A lot of the money in that market is people turning on the latest chess engines and betting in accordance to position evals, but skilled players can see much more - like how a position that the computer gives as a dead drawn is, in reality, extremely difficult for one side to hold. So the market might give near 50% when it's perhaps more like 65/35. That's quite a large edge. There's also quite a lot of opportunities for arbitrage betting, which is by definition risk free.
- somenameforme 8mo agoWould you not say that somebody could equally cynically describe options trading in this way? Prediction markets are very valuable because they provide information on issues that's generally much more accurate than alternative sources, such as polls. For instance Polymarket predicted 94% of the results for the 2024 election a month out, including the presidential. It can also provide more information than the news. For instance the chances of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31st just skyrocketed up to 78%. That tells me far more than the various news sites minute by minute coverage.
- throwaway5752 8mo agoHelp me understand the relatively regulatory frameworks around each activity.
- ThePowerOfDirge 8mo agoGambling = investing. Buying stocks is also gambling. Share buybacks, dividends, fancy words for forking money from workers to some joe schmoe that bought a lottery ticket, i.e., a stock.
- tjwebbnorfolk 8mo agoA stock is ownership in a business, same as ownership in a house. It is an asset that you own. When you bet on blackjack or the superbowl, you own nothing and are simply wagering on the outcome of an event. Gambling and equity ownership are not the same.
- dilyevsky 8mo agoThere's more to stock trading than just "buy and hold". Not all investing has gambling motivations but it is absolutely used as gambling tool by many
- tjwebbnorfolk 8mo agoYou can gamble on literally anything. Stock prices is just one such vehicle.
- gtowey 8mo agoInsider trading is the raison d'etre of these products.
- Hamuko 8mo agoYeah, Polymarket is explicitly advertising this. >Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits. Traders aggregate news, polls, and expert opinions, making informed trades. Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join. >If you’re an expert on a certain topic, Polymarket is your opportunity to profit from trading based on your knowledge, while improving the market’s accuracy. You know what's a great knowledgeable participant? An insider.
- gtowey 8mo agoI have come to the opinion that every successful tech company is basically just an arbitrage scheme to avoid regulations and extract value based on that advantage. Airbnb for unlicensed hotels. Uber for unlicensed taxis. Amazon for whitewashing fraudulent products. Bitcoin for unlicensed securities and laundering money. The pattern is upsetting.
- logicchains 8mo agoFrom an economic perspective the majority of those regulations destroy economic value and those companies are unlocking value by finding clever ways around them.
- gtowey 8mo agoNo, they just shift the economic downsides to someone else so they can collect the difference. That's what I mean by arbitrage. Someone always pays the price, and now it's you and I.
- Imustaskforhelp 8mo ago
- ohyoutravel 8mo agoArchived version: https://archive.ph/XWrTA https://archive.ph/XWrTA
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- raincole 8mo agoIt's interesting that the both replies under this comment are saying exact same thing, with the exact same term ("raison d'etre"... how often do you hear two random people think of this phrase at the same time?). It might be nothing, but it'd be funny if karma farming bots are doing some 'reply frontrunning' over the internet.
- kennyadam 8mo agoI don’t consider “raison d'etre" a suspicious phrase. It’s not something people use multiple times a day, but I’d consider it common enough that when I hear someone say it, or in this case I suppose type it, that I would give it a second thought.
- Rexxar 8mo agoI don't think that two 13 and 14 years old accounts with not that many comment per week are bots.
- timschmidt 8mo agoJia Tan says hi.