4 ms·

>American domiciled VCs and companies can outinvest just about any other competitor, Because every investor in the world put their money in the US. They knew t

>American domiciled VCs and companies can outinvest just about any other competitor, Because every investor in the world put their money in the US. They knew the best companies and people would centralize around that hub. When the US is a rogue, isolated idiocracy -- already true, but the world takes time to adapt to this new reality -- how much of that money do you think will flow to the US?

alephnerd 8mo ago
Much of the capital is US originated and domiciled. American public pension funds alone hold $6 Trillion in AUM [0] and American endowment funds hold a little under $1 Trillion in AUM [1], and tend to be the LPs for most VC funds as most institutional investors follow the Yale Investment Model. [0] - https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-annual-survey-public-pensions.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-ann... [1] - https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=73 https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=73
- llm_nerd 8mo ago
  >Much of the capital is US originated and domiciled. Neither of your citations has any relevance to this at all. That endowments and pensions funds have money...what is your point? Ah, the old HN "look I've provided citations so upvote me, even if they don't support my contention". Canadians alone hold almost $4 trillion dollars in US securities. Because the US was the centre of the capital universe. Just like we saw it as the centre of the media and music universe. Americans mistook the free world basically anointing the US into some confused notion that it was actually some earned accomplishment.
  - alephnerd 8mo ago
    It's to highlight the depth of capital within the US. When we in the VC/PE space raise a fund, we are investing other people's money. Most of that money is of American origin and American domiciled. You do see some large players like in Canada and Europe, but even they are not similar in size to American pension funds and endowments, let alone other American institutional investors. Edit: Can't reply > these will often end up being national level and will look individually much smaller than the ones from the US, purely because the US has more people. Absolutely! And that's what makes it so difficult for Europe to decouple from the US or China. Most attempts at EU federalization are undermined by national level politicans as the keys to hard power (defense, foreign policy, FDI attraction) remain under the purview of individual European states, becuase push comes to shove, an American employer or fund can threaten to leave and that country's entire political apparatus will work to appease us at the expense of Brussels. This is how Meta and Amazon have been able to neuter the GDPR thanks to Ireland [0] and Luxembourg [1] respectively. Even India got the FTA with the EU by using the carrot on France [2] and Italy [3] and the stick on Germany [4]. Europe is in a very tough position because the incentives of a politician who wants to build their career in Brussels is different from one who wants to build their career in Berlin, Bucharest, or Bratislava. [0] - https://www.euractiv.com/news/irish-privacy-regulator-picks-ex-meta-lobbyist-as-third-commissioner/ https://www.euractiv.com/news/irish-privacy-regulator-picks-... [1] - https://www.aboutamazon.eu/news/policy/amazon-leaders-meet-luxembourg-prime-minister-luc-frieden-in-seattle https://www.aboutamazon.eu/news/policy/amazon-leaders-meet-l... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-74-billion-deal-with-france-buy-26-rafale-fighter-jets-2025-04-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-74-billion-d... [3] - https://www.lagazzettamarittima.it/2025/10/30/rixi-in-india-ecco-il-piano-italia-2032-da-200-miliardi-di-investimenti/ https://www.lagazzettamarittima.it/2025/10/30/rixi-in-india-... [4] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-india-unit-faces-14-billion-tax-evasion-notice-2024-11-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...
    - disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
      > You do see some large players like in Canada and Europe, but even they are not similar in size to American pension funds and endowments, let alone other American institutional investors. Look, I haven't dug into this, but if one wants a fair comparison, then you need to account for the size of an economy. If 330mn people need pensions, then you'll obviously see much larger pension funds. If 400mn people across 27 countries want pensions, these will often end up being national level and will look individually much smaller than the ones from the US, purely because the US has more people.
      - lava_pidgeon 8mo ago
        Unfortunately most European countries don't pension funds. It's a pity... (Anyway to put another argument: the US can outflow. Why should people invest to a Trumpland?)
        disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
        > Unfortunately most European countries don't pension funds. It's a pity... Many Europeans prefer bank deposits to investment in markets, that's true. I assure you though, there are lots and lots of pension funds in Europe, as well as many, many insurance companies who represent similar capital profiles.
        victorbjorklund 8mo ago
        Which EU countries don’t have any pension funds?
  - blibble 8mo ago
    > Neither of your citations has any relevance to this at all. it's a common pattern in GPs comments pretty certain he just asks the "AI" for citations on whatever he's written (for a VC he sure has a lot of time to waste shit-posting on the internet)
kyboren 8mo ago
> When the US is a rogue, isolated idiocracy This reads like wishful thinking from a butthurt European. I am not a fan of many of Trump's policies and I think ex-US investor sentiment has definitely soured. But it's not like the USA is now DPRK. > how much of that money do you think will flow to the US? If there's one thing you can be sure of about aggregate investor behavior, it's that investors seek good risk-adjusted returns regardless of any moral or political objections. So long as capital flows remain unimpeded, property rights are respected, and US companies have good expected future returns, investors' money will continue to flow in to the US.
- joe_mamba 8mo ago
  [flagged]
  - disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
    > This. Companies like Nvidia, Google et-al and investors, don't care about and won't leave the US over morals, they'll go and stay where the money is good as long as it lasts. Trying to lecture them about morals from the EU won't change this. Otherwise they wouldn't be using slave labor in Congo and sweatshop labor in China. Nobody will leave over morals (well except possibly the Norweigan sovereign wealth fund), but it's worth noting that for non-dollar investors, the US markets have basically been flat since the start of 2025, because the dollar has declined. It's entirely possible that the US no longer takes in more global capital, if this continues. It's very unlikely that all the foreign investors will leave quicker, but it's much more likely that they'll leave as they sell their investments over time.
    - joe_mamba 8mo ago
      If investors leave, where will they go though? Most of EU economy isn't doing amazing right now either, with the economies of France and Germany being propped up on life support by government spending, and there's more political turmoil at the horizon. Asia?
      - 8mo ago
realo 8mo ago
"idiocracy" ... wow ... such a cool word! And so true. Thank you.
- deleted 8mo ago
  [deleted]
- junaru 8mo ago
  Wait till you see the movie.
- diacritical 8mo ago
  If the comment is not sarcasm (I can't tell reliably anymore), there's a movie called Idiocracy. I think the word comes from the movie, or at least its wide adoption was heavily influenced by it (because someone somewhere probably coined the word before the movie was made).
- runlaszlorun 8mo ago
  I'll add my voice that the movie is definitely worth a watch if you haven't seen it yet.

alephnerd 8mo ago

Much of the capital is US originated and domiciled. American public pension funds alone hold $6 Trillion in AUM [0] and American endowment funds hold a little under $1 Trillion in AUM [1], and tend to be the LPs for most VC funds as most institutional investors follow the Yale Investment Model. [0] - https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-annual-survey-public-pensions.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-ann... [1] - https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=73 https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=73

llm_nerd 8mo ago
>Much of the capital is US originated and domiciled. Neither of your citations has any relevance to this at all. That endowments and pensions funds have money...what is your point? Ah, the old HN "look I've provided citations so upvote me, even if they don't support my contention". Canadians alone hold almost $4 trillion dollars in US securities. Because the US was the centre of the capital universe. Just like we saw it as the centre of the media and music universe. Americans mistook the free world basically anointing the US into some confused notion that it was actually some earned accomplishment.
- alephnerd 8mo ago
  It's to highlight the depth of capital within the US. When we in the VC/PE space raise a fund, we are investing other people's money. Most of that money is of American origin and American domiciled. You do see some large players like in Canada and Europe, but even they are not similar in size to American pension funds and endowments, let alone other American institutional investors. Edit: Can't reply > these will often end up being national level and will look individually much smaller than the ones from the US, purely because the US has more people. Absolutely! And that's what makes it so difficult for Europe to decouple from the US or China. Most attempts at EU federalization are undermined by national level politicans as the keys to hard power (defense, foreign policy, FDI attraction) remain under the purview of individual European states, becuase push comes to shove, an American employer or fund can threaten to leave and that country's entire political apparatus will work to appease us at the expense of Brussels. This is how Meta and Amazon have been able to neuter the GDPR thanks to Ireland [0] and Luxembourg [1] respectively. Even India got the FTA with the EU by using the carrot on France [2] and Italy [3] and the stick on Germany [4]. Europe is in a very tough position because the incentives of a politician who wants to build their career in Brussels is different from one who wants to build their career in Berlin, Bucharest, or Bratislava. [0] - https://www.euractiv.com/news/irish-privacy-regulator-picks-ex-meta-lobbyist-as-third-commissioner/ https://www.euractiv.com/news/irish-privacy-regulator-picks-... [1] - https://www.aboutamazon.eu/news/policy/amazon-leaders-meet-luxembourg-prime-minister-luc-frieden-in-seattle https://www.aboutamazon.eu/news/policy/amazon-leaders-meet-l... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-74-billion-deal-with-france-buy-26-rafale-fighter-jets-2025-04-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-74-billion-d... [3] - https://www.lagazzettamarittima.it/2025/10/30/rixi-in-india-ecco-il-piano-italia-2032-da-200-miliardi-di-investimenti/ https://www.lagazzettamarittima.it/2025/10/30/rixi-in-india-... [4] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-india-unit-faces-14-billion-tax-evasion-notice-2024-11-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...
  - disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
    > You do see some large players like in Canada and Europe, but even they are not similar in size to American pension funds and endowments, let alone other American institutional investors. Look, I haven't dug into this, but if one wants a fair comparison, then you need to account for the size of an economy. If 330mn people need pensions, then you'll obviously see much larger pension funds. If 400mn people across 27 countries want pensions, these will often end up being national level and will look individually much smaller than the ones from the US, purely because the US has more people.
    - lava_pidgeon 8mo ago
      Unfortunately most European countries don't pension funds. It's a pity... (Anyway to put another argument: the US can outflow. Why should people invest to a Trumpland?)
      - disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
        > Unfortunately most European countries don't pension funds. It's a pity... Many Europeans prefer bank deposits to investment in markets, that's true. I assure you though, there are lots and lots of pension funds in Europe, as well as many, many insurance companies who represent similar capital profiles.
      - victorbjorklund 8mo ago
        Which EU countries don’t have any pension funds?
- blibble 8mo ago
  > Neither of your citations has any relevance to this at all. it's a common pattern in GPs comments pretty certain he just asks the "AI" for citations on whatever he's written (for a VC he sure has a lot of time to waste shit-posting on the internet)

kyboren 8mo ago

> When the US is a rogue, isolated idiocracy This reads like wishful thinking from a butthurt European. I am not a fan of many of Trump's policies and I think ex-US investor sentiment has definitely soured. But it's not like the USA is now DPRK. > how much of that money do you think will flow to the US? If there's one thing you can be sure of about aggregate investor behavior, it's that investors seek good risk-adjusted returns regardless of any moral or political objections. So long as capital flows remain unimpeded, property rights are respected, and US companies have good expected future returns, investors' money will continue to flow in to the US.

joe_mamba 8mo ago
[flagged]
- disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
  > This. Companies like Nvidia, Google et-al and investors, don't care about and won't leave the US over morals, they'll go and stay where the money is good as long as it lasts. Trying to lecture them about morals from the EU won't change this. Otherwise they wouldn't be using slave labor in Congo and sweatshop labor in China. Nobody will leave over morals (well except possibly the Norweigan sovereign wealth fund), but it's worth noting that for non-dollar investors, the US markets have basically been flat since the start of 2025, because the dollar has declined. It's entirely possible that the US no longer takes in more global capital, if this continues. It's very unlikely that all the foreign investors will leave quicker, but it's much more likely that they'll leave as they sell their investments over time.
  - joe_mamba 8mo ago
    If investors leave, where will they go though? Most of EU economy isn't doing amazing right now either, with the economies of France and Germany being propped up on life support by government spending, and there's more political turmoil at the horizon. Asia?
    - 8mo ago

realo 8mo ago

"idiocracy" ... wow ... such a cool word! And so true. Thank you.

deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
junaru 8mo ago
Wait till you see the movie.
diacritical 8mo ago
If the comment is not sarcasm (I can't tell reliably anymore), there's a movie called Idiocracy. I think the word comes from the movie, or at least its wide adoption was heavily influenced by it (because someone somewhere probably coined the word before the movie was made).
runlaszlorun 8mo ago
I'll add my voice that the movie is definitely worth a watch if you haven't seen it yet.