5 ms·

Why dont you just copy the trades?

• genidoi 7mo ago
  Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
  • kylecazar 7mo ago
    Shouldn't it be if you suspect they are executed by an insider?
    • genidoi 7mo ago
      You can't be sure that they are an insider or lucky, just from onchain data.
      • bergen 7mo ago
        If they make single market predictions with high accuracy it is very very likely they are
        • genidoi 7mo ago
          No vigilant insider is making a series of "single market predictions with high accuracy" on the same account. They would make unlinkable bets on fresh accounts.
          • BoxFour 7mo ago
            > No vigilant insider is making a series of "single market predictions with high accuracy" on the same account. There seem to be quite a few non-vigilant insiders. That's the very premise of the post we're discussing. This is unsurprising to anyone who's seen the various ways people get busted for insider trading in equities.
          • meetingthrower 7mo ago
            Also insider trading is A-OK on prediction markets!
• 0x3f 7mo ago
  If I'm an insider with 100% confidence, I'll take all offers at a certain price as long as I can afford it. Similar story for lower levels of confidence (but still inside info). There won't necessarily be any left for you to copy at a viable price.
  • chii 7mo ago
    > Similar story for lower levels of confidence therefore, the polymarket betting odds will reflect the truth - even if that info is a secret that nobody else but the insider knows. And if this is the case, then even an outsider could make use of the odds as a source of info which would ensure that market efficiency (which is about the flow of information) is high. So what's wrong with insider trading again?
    • wqaatwt 7mo ago
      That someone with inside information will e.g. make 500% while those late to the party e.g. only get 10%? (of course your example is not very realistic to begin with)
      • nubg 7mo ago
        So is any kind of business illegal? Making investments?
    • mminer237 7mo ago
      It rewards blatant corruption? What's the benefit is the bigger question.
      • 0x3f 7mo ago
        The benefit is that inside information becomes public information. The reward for the insider is just the necessary incentive for that to happen.
        • a2128 7mo ago