6 ms·

I said in earlier reports about this, it's difficult to draw statistical comparisons with humans because there's so little data. Having said that, it is clear t

by Traster 8mo ago

I said in earlier reports about this, it's difficult to draw statistical comparisons with humans because there's so little data. Having said that, it is clear that this system just isn't ready and it's kind of wild that a couple of those crashes would've been easily preventable with parking sensors that come equipped as standard on almost every other car. In some spaces we still have rule of law - when xAI started doing the deepfake nude thing we kind of knew no one in the US would do anything but jurisdictions like the EU would. And they are now. It's happening slowly but it is happening. Here though, I just don't know if there's any institution in the US that is going to look at this for what it is - an unsafe system not ready for the road - and take action.

dsf2d 8mo ago
Its not ever going to get ready. Getting this to a place where it is better than humans continuously is not equivalent to fixing bugs in the context of the production of software used on phones etc. When you are dealing with a dynamic uncontained environment it is much more difficult.
- SpicyLemonZest 8mo ago
  Waymo is in a place where it's better than humans continuously. If Tesla is not, that's on them, either because their engineers are not as good or because they're forced to follow Elon's camera-only mandate.
  - moralestapia 8mo ago
    It's the camera-only mandate, and it's not Elon's but Karpathy's. Any engineering student can understand why LIDAR+Radar+RGB is better than just a single camera; and any person moderately aware of tech can realize that digital cameras are nowhere as good as the human eye. But yeah, he's a genius or something.
    - xiphias2 8mo ago
      Using only cameras is a business decision, not tech decision: will camera + NN be good enough before LIDAR+Radar+RGB+NN can scale up. For me it looks like they will reach parity at about the same time, so camera only is not totally stupid. What's stupid is forcing robotaxi on the road before the technology is ready.
      - moralestapia 8mo ago
        >reach parity at about the same time Nah, Waymo is much safer than Tesla today, while Tesla has way-mo* data to train on and much more compute capacity in their hands. They're in a dead end. Camera-only was a massive mistake. They'll never admit to that because there's now millions of cars out there that will be perceived as defective if they do. This is the decision that will sink Tesla to the ground, you'll see. But hail Karpathy, yeah. * Sorry, I couldn't resist.
        algo_trader 8mo ago
        Was Karpathy "fired" from Tesla because he could not make camera only work ? Or did he "resign" since Elon insists on camera-only and Karpathy says i cant do it?
      - wstrange 8mo ago
        Clearly they have not reached parity, as evidenced by the crash rate of Tesla. It's far from clear that the current HW4 + sensor suite will ever be sufficient for L4.
    - cameldrv 8mo ago
      Digital cameras are much worse than the human eye, especially when it comes to dynamic range, but I don't think that's all that widely known actually. There are also better and worse digital cameras, and the ones on a Waymo are very good, and the ones on a Tesla aren't that great, and that makes a huge difference. Beyond even the cameras themselves, humans can move their head around, use sun visors, put on sunglasses, etc to deal with driving into the sun, but AVs don't have these capabilities yet.
  - xiphias2 8mo ago
    It's clear that camera-only driving is getting better as we have better image understanding models every year. So there will be a point when camera based systems without lidars will get better than human drivers. Technology is just not there yet, and Elon is impatient.
    - fwip 8mo ago
      > So there will be a point when camera based systems without lidars will get better than human drivers. No reason to assume that. A toddler that is increasing in walk speed every month will never be able to outrun a cheetah.
      - shoo 8mo ago
        in contrast, a toddler equipped with an ion thruster & a modest quantity of xeon propellant could achieve enough delta-v to attain cheetah-escape velocity, provided the initial trajectory during the first 31 hours of the mission was through a low-cheetah-density environment
        tzs 8mo ago
        That initial trajectory also needs to go through a low air density environment. At normal air density near the surface of the Earth that ion thruster could only get a toddler up to ~10 km/h before the drag force from the air equals the thrust from the ion thruster. The only way that ion thruster might save the toddler is if it was used to blast the cheetah in the face. It would take a pretty long time to actually cause enough damage to force the cheetah to stop, but it might be annoying enough and/or unusual enough to get it to decide to leave.
        shoo 8mo ago
        > low air density environment. At normal air density near the surface of the Earth that ion thruster could only get a toddler up to ~10 km/h agreed. this also provides an explanation for the otherwise surprising fact that prey animals in the savannah have never been observed to naturally evolve ion thrusters.
  - bluGill 8mo ago
    citation needed. Waymo says they are better, but it is really hard to find someone without a conflict of interest who we can believe has and understands the data.
    - SpicyLemonZest 8mo ago
      I reject the premise of your comment. If Tesla wants to convince people that Robotaxi is safe, it's on them to publish an analysis with comparative data and stop redacting the crash details that Waymo freely provides. Until they do, it's reasonable to follow the source article's simple math and unreasonable to declare that there's no way to be sure because there might be some unknown factor it's not accounting for.
      - bluGill 8mo ago
        That is a first step - but anything published by tesla or someone they pay is suspect and so independant annalisys is mandatory. That includes some data gathering to ensure the data tesla/waymo gives is correct.
  - aeternum 8mo ago
    If you ride enough Waymo, you will realize it is a far more cautious driver than a human but not a better driver. If you need to get somewhere even at an average speed, you still take uber/lyft. Waymo still takes many wrong turns and can easily get stuck in situations where a human would not.
parl_match 8mo ago
> the deepfake nude thing the issue is that these tools are widely accessible, and at the federal level, the legal liability is on the person who posts it, not who hosts the tool. this was a mistake that will likely be corrected over the next six years due to the current regulatory environment (trump admin), there is no political will to tackle new laws. > I just don't know if there's any institution in the US that is going to look at this for what it is - an unsafe system not ready for the road - and take action. unlike deepfakes, there are extensive road safety laws and civil liability precedent. texas may be pushing tesla forward (maybe partially for ideological reasons), but it will be an extremely hard sell to get any of the major US cities to get on board with this. so, no, i don't think you will see robotaxis on the roads in blue states (or even most red states) any time soon.
- zardo 8mo ago
  > legal liability is on the person who posts it, not who hosts the tool. In the specific case of grok posting deepfake nudes on X. Doesn't X both create and post the deepfake? My understanding was, Bob replies in Alice's thread, "@grok make a nude photo of Alice" then grok replies in the thread with the fake photo.
  - Retric 8mo ago
    That specific action is still instigated by Bob. Where grok is at risk is not responding after they are notified of the issue. It’s trivial for grock to ban some keywords here and they aren’t, that’s a legal issue.
    - zardo 8mo ago
      Sure Bob is instigating the harassment, then X.com is actually doing the harassment. Or at least, that's the case plaintiff's attorneys are surely going to be arguing.
      - InvertedRhodium 8mo ago
        I don't see how it's fundamentally any different to mailing someone harassing messages or distressing objects. Sure, in this context the person who mails the item is the one instigating the harassment but it's the postal network that's facilitating it and actually performing the "last mile" of harassment.
moralestapia 8mo ago
>it's difficult to draw statistical comparisons [...] because there's so little data That ain't true [1]. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher%27s_exact_test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher%27s_exact_test
SilverElfin 8mo ago
> it's kind of wild that a couple of those crashes would've been easily preventable with parking sensors that come equipped as standard on almost every other car Teslas are really cheaply made, inadequate cars by modern standards. The interiors are terrible and are barebones even compared to mainstream cars like a Toyota Corolla. And they lack parking sensors depending on the version you bought. I believe current models don’t come with a surround view camera either, which is almost standard on all cars at this point, and very useful in practice. I guess I am not surprised the Robotaxis are also barebones.

by Traster 8mo ago

dsf2d 8mo ago

Its not ever going to get ready. Getting this to a place where it is better than humans continuously is not equivalent to fixing bugs in the context of the production of software used on phones etc. When you are dealing with a dynamic uncontained environment it is much more difficult.

SpicyLemonZest 8mo ago
Waymo is in a place where it's better than humans continuously. If Tesla is not, that's on them, either because their engineers are not as good or because they're forced to follow Elon's camera-only mandate.
- moralestapia 8mo ago
  It's the camera-only mandate, and it's not Elon's but Karpathy's. Any engineering student can understand why LIDAR+Radar+RGB is better than just a single camera; and any person moderately aware of tech can realize that digital cameras are nowhere as good as the human eye. But yeah, he's a genius or something.
  - xiphias2 8mo ago
    Using only cameras is a business decision, not tech decision: will camera + NN be good enough before LIDAR+Radar+RGB+NN can scale up. For me it looks like they will reach parity at about the same time, so camera only is not totally stupid. What's stupid is forcing robotaxi on the road before the technology is ready.
    - moralestapia 8mo ago
      >reach parity at about the same time Nah, Waymo is much safer than Tesla today, while Tesla has way-mo* data to train on and much more compute capacity in their hands. They're in a dead end. Camera-only was a massive mistake. They'll never admit to that because there's now millions of cars out there that will be perceived as defective if they do. This is the decision that will sink Tesla to the ground, you'll see. But hail Karpathy, yeah. * Sorry, I couldn't resist.
      - algo_trader 8mo ago
        Was Karpathy "fired" from Tesla because he could not make camera only work ? Or did he "resign" since Elon insists on camera-only and Karpathy says i cant do it?
    - wstrange 8mo ago
      Clearly they have not reached parity, as evidenced by the crash rate of Tesla. It's far from clear that the current HW4 + sensor suite will ever be sufficient for L4.
  - cameldrv 8mo ago
    Digital cameras are much worse than the human eye, especially when it comes to dynamic range, but I don't think that's all that widely known actually. There are also better and worse digital cameras, and the ones on a Waymo are very good, and the ones on a Tesla aren't that great, and that makes a huge difference. Beyond even the cameras themselves, humans can move their head around, use sun visors, put on sunglasses, etc to deal with driving into the sun, but AVs don't have these capabilities yet.
- xiphias2 8mo ago
  It's clear that camera-only driving is getting better as we have better image understanding models every year. So there will be a point when camera based systems without lidars will get better than human drivers. Technology is just not there yet, and Elon is impatient.
  - fwip 8mo ago
    > So there will be a point when camera based systems without lidars will get better than human drivers. No reason to assume that. A toddler that is increasing in walk speed every month will never be able to outrun a cheetah.
    - shoo 8mo ago
      in contrast, a toddler equipped with an ion thruster & a modest quantity of xeon propellant could achieve enough delta-v to attain cheetah-escape velocity, provided the initial trajectory during the first 31 hours of the mission was through a low-cheetah-density environment
      - tzs 8mo ago
        That initial trajectory also needs to go through a low air density environment. At normal air density near the surface of the Earth that ion thruster could only get a toddler up to ~10 km/h before the drag force from the air equals the thrust from the ion thruster. The only way that ion thruster might save the toddler is if it was used to blast the cheetah in the face. It would take a pretty long time to actually cause enough damage to force the cheetah to stop, but it might be annoying enough and/or unusual enough to get it to decide to leave.
        shoo 8mo ago
        > low air density environment. At normal air density near the surface of the Earth that ion thruster could only get a toddler up to ~10 km/h agreed. this also provides an explanation for the otherwise surprising fact that prey animals in the savannah have never been observed to naturally evolve ion thrusters.
- bluGill 8mo ago
  citation needed. Waymo says they are better, but it is really hard to find someone without a conflict of interest who we can believe has and understands the data.
  - SpicyLemonZest 8mo ago
    I reject the premise of your comment. If Tesla wants to convince people that Robotaxi is safe, it's on them to publish an analysis with comparative data and stop redacting the crash details that Waymo freely provides. Until they do, it's reasonable to follow the source article's simple math and unreasonable to declare that there's no way to be sure because there might be some unknown factor it's not accounting for.
    - bluGill 8mo ago
      That is a first step - but anything published by tesla or someone they pay is suspect and so independant annalisys is mandatory. That includes some data gathering to ensure the data tesla/waymo gives is correct.
- aeternum 8mo ago
  If you ride enough Waymo, you will realize it is a far more cautious driver than a human but not a better driver. If you need to get somewhere even at an average speed, you still take uber/lyft. Waymo still takes many wrong turns and can easily get stuck in situations where a human would not.

parl_match 8mo ago

> the deepfake nude thing the issue is that these tools are widely accessible, and at the federal level, the legal liability is on the person who posts it, not who hosts the tool. this was a mistake that will likely be corrected over the next six years due to the current regulatory environment (trump admin), there is no political will to tackle new laws. > I just don't know if there's any institution in the US that is going to look at this for what it is - an unsafe system not ready for the road - and take action. unlike deepfakes, there are extensive road safety laws and civil liability precedent. texas may be pushing tesla forward (maybe partially for ideological reasons), but it will be an extremely hard sell to get any of the major US cities to get on board with this. so, no, i don't think you will see robotaxis on the roads in blue states (or even most red states) any time soon.

zardo 8mo ago
> legal liability is on the person who posts it, not who hosts the tool. In the specific case of grok posting deepfake nudes on X. Doesn't X both create and post the deepfake? My understanding was, Bob replies in Alice's thread, "@grok make a nude photo of Alice" then grok replies in the thread with the fake photo.
- Retric 8mo ago
  That specific action is still instigated by Bob. Where grok is at risk is not responding after they are notified of the issue. It’s trivial for grock to ban some keywords here and they aren’t, that’s a legal issue.
  - zardo 8mo ago
    Sure Bob is instigating the harassment, then X.com is actually doing the harassment. Or at least, that's the case plaintiff's attorneys are surely going to be arguing.
    - InvertedRhodium 8mo ago
      I don't see how it's fundamentally any different to mailing someone harassing messages or distressing objects. Sure, in this context the person who mails the item is the one instigating the harassment but it's the postal network that's facilitating it and actually performing the "last mile" of harassment.

moralestapia 8mo ago

>it's difficult to draw statistical comparisons [...] because there's so little data That ain't true [1]. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher%27s_exact_test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher%27s_exact_test

SilverElfin 8mo ago

> it's kind of wild that a couple of those crashes would've been easily preventable with parking sensors that come equipped as standard on almost every other car Teslas are really cheaply made, inadequate cars by modern standards. The interiors are terrible and are barebones even compared to mainstream cars like a Toyota Corolla. And they lack parking sensors depending on the version you bought. I believe current models don’t come with a surround view camera either, which is almost standard on all cars at this point, and very useful in practice. I guess I am not surprised the Robotaxis are also barebones.