5 ms·
Nvidia shares are down after report that its OpenAI investment stalled
- thenaturalist 9mo ago[flagged]
- joe_mamba 9mo ago>It will be worse than the dot com bust. And whose fault is that?
- MassiveQuasar 9mo agoThe post dot com winners? Ironic.
- jgeada 9mo agoBig scale fraud like this always has its origin and motive force in the executive suite and board. However, the consequences are always applied to everyone but the executives and board.
- mschuster91 9mo ago> And whose fault is that? Primarily the fault of our governments not using anti-trust laws for real in, like, decades. Governments actually do have the power to regulate the economy and to prevent catastrophic crashes from occurring. The warning signs for the AI bubble have been visible for well over a year now, when the entity relationship map between the major players began to resemble a Habsburg family tree... and yet, nothing was done.
- joe_mamba 9mo agoThis is EXACTLY where I was getting at. People raise their fists at big-tech and big-finance for creating a bubble whose splash damage will hurt everyone, but it's ultimately the government's job to monitor, regulate and prevent this. The reality is even worse than this. It's not that the government is asleep at the wheel, it's that all financial crises were caused by government intervention to begin with (2009 subprime government backed mortgages, 2020 covid money printing, etc). The big banks, corporations and wall street were only taking advantage of the situation the government helped create in order to enrich themselves. Average people would have also loved to have taken advantage of it to enrich themselves, if they could understand the system well enough to game it, and some do, so it's not like the blame is only on one participant, but pretty much everyone is to blame: - the government for creating asset bubbles and closing an eye as it is inflating - corporations and super wealthy for being greedy and exploiting the system created and run by the government - the voters for being uneducated and stupid and not seeing the government rob the blind, or for being greedy and complicit on the asset bubble for personal gain, and not holding the government accountable
- DangitBobby 9mo agoMaybe I'm misunderstanding your position, but no regulations is certainly not better than some regulations, assuming the people in government positions have the actual best interests of the country in mind. Deregulation specifically led to the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the current situation, not the existence of regulations itself.
- joe_mamba 9mo ago>but no regulations is certainly not better than some regulations, I never meant such a thing. >assuming the people in government positions have the actual best interests of the country in mind They don't. They care about themselves and the lobbyists paying them, and sometimes they throw you a bone to win an election. >Deregulation specifically led to the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the current situation, not the existence of regulations itself. Deregulation is also a form of regulation because the government is the one that removes the previous safeguards put in place via new regulations. And Clinton was the one responsible for the sub-prime mortgage deregulation.
- DangitBobby 9mo agoI'm aware. I lay it at the feet of neoliberals generally.
- zrn900 9mo ago[dead]
- chasd00 9mo agoTo me CoreWeave is the one to watch. They have to actually bring all these promised datacenters online, operational, and profitable. They basically got a $2B bailout from Nividia a week or so ago but they're back to sinking. https://ts2.tech/en/coreweave-stock-slips-as-class-action-notices-pile-up-ahead-of-earnings/ https://ts2.tech/en/coreweave-stock-slips-as-class-action-no...
- BoorishBears 9mo agoConsumer can eat all the GPUs they have and more if we stop trying to force B2B Right we have a loop where AI is so expensive (because it's priced to feast on B2B margins) that the best consumer experiences aren't affordable, and they're not affordable so they don't go mainstream, and they're not mainstream so no one is willing to take less money and bank on the incredible volume that would emerge if it went mainstream. If we can get model pricing cheaper AI entertainment alone will probably carry things (I'm 99% sure NovelAI is already one of their largest customers outside of major AI labs)
- zer00eyz 9mo ago> Consumer can eat all the GPUs they have and more if we stop trying to force B2B You should really crunch the numbers on buying and then running enough compute to run a leading edge model. The economics of buying it (never mind running it) just dont add up. You still haven't factored in "training", the major problem right now that every one remains head in sand about. I dont need a model to know who Tom Cruise is or how to write SQL if I am asking it "set up my amazon refund" or "cancel xyz service". The moment someone figures out how to build targeted and small it will take off. And as for training, well having to make ongoing investment into re-training is what killed expert systems, it's what killed all past AI efforts. Just because it's much more "automated" doesn't mean it isnt the same "problem". Till a model learns (and can become a useful digital twin) the consumer market is going to remain "out of reach". That doesn't mean we dont have an amazing tool at hand, because we do. But the way it's being sold is only going to lead to confusion and disappointment.
- 9mo ago
- nick__m 9mo agoIt will be worse than the dot com bust. If you believe it will happen in the next 6 months how do you prepare for that?
- ars 9mo agoAlmost all the gains in the SNP500 are NVidia, and other huge tech. https://www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p-500-index-fund-might-not-be-as-diverse-as-you-think-and-you-can-blame-nvidia-for-that-11800715 https://www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p-500-index-fund-mig... https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/your-portfolio-may-be-more-tech-heavy-than-you-think.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/your-portfolio-may-be-more-t...
- pc86 9mo agoIf you truly believe this, slowly divest everything into cash, wait for the crash, then buy back in. Even buying in slowly over the course of a crash, on the way down, will save you a ton of money if you're out before it hits. But you're more likely to just cash out early, lose a bunch of gains, then buy back in later at higher prices. If you can time the crash you can make a shitload of money. But you can't, so you'll come out better if you just keep buying in every paycheck and ride it out just like you have been.
- RyanOD 9mo agoYes to this. Take no alternative actions. Just keep investing and don't watch the market for a year or two.
- ares623 9mo agoThere is the separate risk that Microsoft, Google, etc. will have a lower value in two years as governments get their migration off their platforms into full gear
- nick__m 9mo agoDoing nothing different is the kind of plan I can easily execute !
- keeda 9mo ago> astronomical overprovisioning ??? Literally all the cloud providers have been reporting severe capacity crunches for the past few quarters -- to the tune of backlogs of triple-digit billions each. As a reminder, a backlog or "Remaining Performance Obligation" (RPO) is money their customers have committed to them but they could not realize because they didn't have enough capacity to serve their workloads. Which is why they are all committing to double-digit billions each in AI CapEx spend over the next few quarters. And most of them (aside from Oracle, which is trying to borrow its way into this gold rush) are investing money from their double digit billions in profit (per quarter!) into this spend... money that they could have otherwise comfortably held on to for something more palatable to share-holders. Revenue and return on investment is a valid concern to bring up in this whole GenAI shebang; demand is not.
- ecommerceguy 9mo agoPossibly good for Nvidia as I have doubts OpenAI will be able to pay their massive IOUs in a timely fashion, if ever. Did Oracle spin off Cerner yet?
- DontchaKnowit 9mo agoWhat do you mean by spin off?
- u1hcw9nx 9mo agoYou would think the effect was the opposite. I think this is worse for OpenAI. So far, the circular financing from Nvidia has been peanuts for the company. It's roughly equal to giving 5% discount on hardware, not a big deal when the profit margin is 70%. Trying to prop up new neoclouds and competition is a good idea. As I understand it, the OpenAI investment was much bigger effective discount but still safe because Nvidia invests gradually in installments only when OpenAI invests in data centers: tit for tat. Maybe OpenAI wanted to get the money now and invest it later, as they seem to be running out of cash.
- embedding-shape 9mo ago> You would think the effect was the opposite. I think this is worse for OpenAI. How do we know it wasn't? OpenAI isn't a publicly traded company, and I guess no one who dares writing anything here actually knows how the numbers look on the inside, so for what we know, it could very well have been worse for OpenAI than Nvidia.
- observationist 9mo agoYou can make a good guess, though - OpenAI had a significant lead, its moat was being a generation or 2 ahead of the competition, and as of the end of 2025, OpenAI, Google, xAI, and Anthropic are pretty much neck and neck. Grok and Gemini are likely to be the top 2 within the next couple months, and the Chinese open models are hot on their heels. OpenAI is going to be competing for third or fourth place with Anthropic unless one of them pulls off a big capabilities or efficiency leap while remaining believably as good as the other top models. Google and xAI have advantages that the others don't, and are capitalizing on them like crazy. It remains to be seen whether xAI can compete with the Google hardware advantage, but they have economies of scale, differences in mission, and Elon's billions on their side, so it's turning out to be a very interesting race. Sama could also finagle a funding rabbit or strategic partnership out of his hat and also have the next top tier model, amazing everyone again and keeping a plausible "best in class" lead for a while; OpenAI would have to be down for at least a year before I counted it out completely. It's not looking very pretty for them right now, though.
- whalesalad 9mo agoHow long after the collapse of OpenAI will the DDR situation come back to normal.
- luqtas 9mo agohopefully never, so we just have to run cheap screens connected to AI servers /j
- h4kunamata 9mo ago[flagged]
- Ajakks 9mo agoIt isnt God - Sam went a little overboard with his pushing that. AI still isnt just hype tho and remains the greatest digital tool ever made by people. The reality remains that if you adopt AI into your workforce, not replace your workforce with AI, use AI to help with your work - you can do a lot more and faster too. I just downloaded deepseek on my Win 11 PC - Copilot is obviously more integrated but its not that bad at all. Copilot is very limited in the boxes Microsoft built into it but it is a great tool for average people that only need to interact with AI occasionally to search the internet.
- h4kunamata 9mo agoThere are two types of engineers/companies: 1. Clueless: AI is the future, grant it access to everything and let it do everything, from management to execution. These engineers will be unemployed and companies go bankrupt. This is the majority of the market right now, look what is happening to them from companies to the products themselves. 2. Smart: AI is a tool to improve my work so I can spend less time doing the boring stuff and more time learning and doing cool stuff. This is the minority and the only companies thriving right now.
- FergusArgyll 9mo agoWanna make a forecast I can hold you accountable to for 6 months out? (Something concrete)
- spicyusername 9mo agoDown to levels as low as where they were a few days ago, lol
- zmmmmm 9mo agothe hit to microsoft the other day was pretty interesting I saw reports attributing it to a miss on earnings from Azure but they were off by 0.4% on 39% growth. That's 39% instead of 39.4%. And the company stock dropped 10%. This is all of Microsoft - 10% down (!). It has to tell you there are a LOT of people primed to sell in a hurry on bad news. The "bubble" talk subsided a lot after nVidia smashed earnings last quarter, but largely overlooked how much their whole situation is based on pent up demand. It completely masks the fundamentals. I still feel like we're sitting on a volcano and seeing puffs of smoke and feeling earth tremors.
- fullshark 9mo agoThe intense race to dump the risk on the public and cash out (OpenAI ipo, Musk folding xAI into SpaceX for that IPO) is very telling.
- raw_anon_1111 9mo agoThe same thing that YC does… https://medium.com/@Arakunrin/the-post-ipo-performance-of-y-combinator-companies-a-mixed-bag-of-success-and-struggle-58e9a4006f01 https://medium.com/@Arakunrin/the-post-ipo-performance-of-y-...
- solumos 9mo agoYou generally want to IPO (and fundraise in general) at the most favorable terms possible — not when there are market headwinds.
- 4sak3n 9mo agoNot if you see the IPO as your only remaining exit strategy for a juggling act that is threatening to rain down on your head when it collapses
- nmfisher 9mo agoI always wanted to crunch the numbers but never got around to it, so I'm glad someone actually went and did it. YC company IPOs always smelled like pump-and-dump than a true liquidity/fundraising event, and if those numbers are correct, I was right. Or to put it another way, if someone asks "should I buy IPO shares in a YC company", the answer is "no".
- SilverElfin 9mo agoI thought this was already revised? Jensen Huang said they’ll be investing more than ever: > Nvidia is likely set to make its “largest ever investment” in ChatGPT firm OpenAI, despite reports that the deal may be under threat in recent weeks. The chip giant’s CEO, Jensen Huang, didn’t say exactly how big the investment would be, but said it would be “nothing like” the $100 billion figure mentioned in the September partnership agreement. https://www.pcmag.com/news/nvidia-ceo-well-make-our-largest-ever-investment-in-openai https://www.pcmag.com/news/nvidia-ceo-well-make-our-largest-...
- SunlitCat 9mo agoThe “largest ever investment” remark felt less like confidence and more like a “nothing to see here, move along” PR reflex.
- georgeecollins 9mo agoI think it would be healthy for everyone if the hype around this stuff would die down a bit. There's too much pressure to invest in hardware and too much uncertainty around the business case. I am excited to see what can be built but I hope a bunch of people don't have to get wiped out financially along the way.