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I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic? Waymo is the best service I've used in m

I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic? Waymo is the best service I've used in many, many years. The jump from Uber->Waymo is similar to the quality jump from Taxi->Uber 12 years ago, but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.

bryanlarsen 8mo ago
This is Google you're talking about. They're an ads+AI company. They'll figure out a way to enshittify, even if it's not obvious.
crazygringo 8mo ago
Google has a $4.1T market cap. So a $110B valuation is not currently that significant in terms of exposure. It's only 2.7% of it overall.
- thundergolfer 8mo ago
  Fair, though my guess is that the growth rate of Waymo's market cap will far exceed Google's as Waymo scales. I wish I could invest in Waymo, so I'll take that 2.7% exposure.
doctoboggan 8mo ago
> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified. Oh ye of little faith! Here are some ideas off the top of my head, I am sure the suits at Google already have a bigger list. * Ads in vehicle * Adjust route so you see partner companies or billboards * Offering alternative destinations (I see you are going to Burger King, would you rather go to our partner McDonalds?) * Listening to conversations in car * Selling ride data.
- dotBen 8mo ago
  They already will be selling your ride data and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries). Ads in cars, partnerships with alternative destinations, etc. definitely would feel like enshitification for a demographic comparable to the hacker news one here. But these are all per session/user settings just like most of us have a paid Spotify account and never see advertising and those who don't get a very different monetized experience. What is exciting about monetization like this is the possibility for rides to become very cheap or even free. If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
  - lotsofpulp 8mo ago
    > and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries). Why not? You can consent to having your audio recorded. They can even offer a higher “private” price and a lower “ad supported” price. I write “private” because I assume the microphones will always be listening no matter which price you pay.
    - dotBen 8mo ago
      I guess that's semantics. If you opt in then yes I guess they could do anything. I think the point was that enshitification would occur if they forced you to do that. You could opt in to have blood or plasma taken on every ride if you so wanted I guess.
      - tantalor 8mo ago
        Rough figures: As a plasma donor you can earn $30-$70 per session for 800 ml. Let's call it $50. A session takes about 90 minutes, or 533 ml/hour, and you make $33/hour Waymo charges $0.50 - $1.00 per mile. Let's use the high end. To break even, your Waymo will need to consume < $33/hour, or < 33 mph. That's not bad! If you go any faster, you won't be able to extract enough plasma in the same amount of time.
  - tapoxi 8mo ago
    Couldn't Uber do that today?
    - dotBen 8mo ago
      /cries into my Uber shares and the deletion of the Uber ATG repos when the parts were sold to Aurora.
  - lokar 8mo ago
    https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/google-voice-assistant-lawsuit-settlement-68-million/ https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/google-voice-assistant-laws...
- jezzamon 8mo ago
  There's all that, but you can just look at Uber for the classic model of how a company like this enshittifies, which is: - offer a service well below market rate, gain dependent customers - crank up the price No need to do much of the other stuff
  - takklob 8mo ago
    [dead]
  - sib 8mo ago
    Don't forget: * Stop doing any meaningful in-person inspection of the vehicle to ensure that it is in good condition before joining the network * Stop requiring cars to be <= 4 years old * (Seemingly) stop requiring drivers to maintain trunk space free for passengers' luggage
- everforward 8mo ago
  The ads will be awful, because you’re effectively captive. You only control the volume and screen if they let you.
  - philipwhiuk 8mo ago
    Finally, a justification for owning an Apple Vision Pro.
- crazygringo 8mo ago
  Ads in vehicles are a sure thing. Also a sure thing you'll be able to pay a little extra to turn them off, which is basically just the full price of the trip unsubsidized by ads. It'll be up to you, just like whether you want your Netflix cheaper with ads, or more expensive but without. I see that choice as a good thing. The rest of your suggestions are incredibly unlikely. Google doesn't even scan your Gmail anymore, you think they're going to create a privacy scandal by listening to your conversations? And they certainly don't sell your Maps timeline which is far more valuable than just a few car trips, so why on earth would they do that with Waymo? Nor does Google Maps offer to send you to Burger King when you hit directions for McDonald's. And taking a longer route that wastes time, battery and money, on the chance you'll be looking out the window to see a billboard rather than looking at your phone, doesn't make sense at all.
ai-x 8mo ago
Google's marketcap moves by Waymo's entire marketcap in a single day.
pandemic_region 8mo ago
"Please watch these ads before we start the ride. Any attempt to not look at the ads by looking away from the screen or closing your eyes will automatically cancel the ride."
- floxy 8mo ago
  https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Ftheawesomedaily.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F02%2Fbest-of-4chan-4good-1.png&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=772e04d56600578f5bd4da15abd1ba7fd8c4d3c489868f4f0ece18c190f91a3a https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Ft...
g947o 8mo ago
> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified. Raise the price?
- mbb70 8mo ago
  Enshittification is a technique to make more money _without_ raising the price by simply making the product worse. Self-driving taxis have a high floor for 'making the product worse' because the car fundamentally has to drive itself.
  - sowbug 8mo ago
    It appears that enshittification has joined exponential and literally as words that used to mean specific things but are now just generic intensifiers.
ronnier 8mo ago
> but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified My guess is that once Waymo starts to extremely take off, law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen. It will disproportionately impact an entire segment of the population and will put them out of work.
- estearum 8mo ago
  No they won't. The product is so outrageously superior on every dimension to the status quo that municipalities will figure out whatever they need to in order to accommodate them. You think the folks on City Council enjoy chauffeuring their own children around and will block a solution to it?
  - ronnier 8mo ago
    Yes. It's already happening https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1pdzd2f/some_minneapolis_city_council_members_want_to/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1pdzd2f/some_m...
    - thinkmassive 8mo ago
      In Virginia too, proposed in HB1124: > The bill prohibits the use of autonomous vehicles as motor carriers of passengers or property without a human operator who (i) meets any state and federal qualifications for the operation of an autonomous vehicle; (ii) is physically present in such autonomous vehicle; and (iii) has the ability to monitor the performance of such vehicle and intervene in the operation of such vehicle, including operating such vehicle without the use of the automated driving system and stopping and turning off such vehicle if necessary. https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB1124 https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB1124
      - tanseydavid 8mo ago
        If they prohibit autonomous vehicles, eventually their constituencies will be screaming for it. It seems that many people, after trying out the service for themselves first hand, in a locale that has it available today, are very eager to have the service available to them in their home locale.
re-thc 8mo ago
> I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic? You also get some Starlink.
tgsovlerkhgsel 8mo ago
The obvious way such services enshittify is to become a monopoly by pushing everyone else out, then cranking up the prices (and lowering quality, e.g. by not cleaning the vehicles, longer wait times for better utilization, etc.)

bryanlarsen 8mo ago

This is Google you're talking about. They're an ads+AI company. They'll figure out a way to enshittify, even if it's not obvious.

crazygringo 8mo ago

Google has a $4.1T market cap. So a $110B valuation is not currently that significant in terms of exposure. It's only 2.7% of it overall.

thundergolfer 8mo ago
Fair, though my guess is that the growth rate of Waymo's market cap will far exceed Google's as Waymo scales. I wish I could invest in Waymo, so I'll take that 2.7% exposure.

doctoboggan 8mo ago

> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified. Oh ye of little faith! Here are some ideas off the top of my head, I am sure the suits at Google already have a bigger list. * Ads in vehicle * Adjust route so you see partner companies or billboards * Offering alternative destinations (I see you are going to Burger King, would you rather go to our partner McDonalds?) * Listening to conversations in car * Selling ride data.

dotBen 8mo ago
They already will be selling your ride data and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries). Ads in cars, partnerships with alternative destinations, etc. definitely would feel like enshitification for a demographic comparable to the hacker news one here. But these are all per session/user settings just like most of us have a paid Spotify account and never see advertising and those who don't get a very different monetized experience. What is exciting about monetization like this is the possibility for rides to become very cheap or even free. If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
- lotsofpulp 8mo ago
  > and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries). Why not? You can consent to having your audio recorded. They can even offer a higher “private” price and a lower “ad supported” price. I write “private” because I assume the microphones will always be listening no matter which price you pay.
  - dotBen 8mo ago
    I guess that's semantics. If you opt in then yes I guess they could do anything. I think the point was that enshitification would occur if they forced you to do that. You could opt in to have blood or plasma taken on every ride if you so wanted I guess.
    - tantalor 8mo ago
      Rough figures: As a plasma donor you can earn $30-$70 per session for 800 ml. Let's call it $50. A session takes about 90 minutes, or 533 ml/hour, and you make $33/hour Waymo charges $0.50 - $1.00 per mile. Let's use the high end. To break even, your Waymo will need to consume < $33/hour, or < 33 mph. That's not bad! If you go any faster, you won't be able to extract enough plasma in the same amount of time.
- tapoxi 8mo ago
  Couldn't Uber do that today?
  - dotBen 8mo ago
    /cries into my Uber shares and the deletion of the Uber ATG repos when the parts were sold to Aurora.
- lokar 8mo ago
  https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/google-voice-assistant-lawsuit-settlement-68-million/ https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/google-voice-assistant-laws...
jezzamon 8mo ago
There's all that, but you can just look at Uber for the classic model of how a company like this enshittifies, which is: - offer a service well below market rate, gain dependent customers - crank up the price No need to do much of the other stuff
- takklob 8mo ago
  [dead]
- sib 8mo ago
  Don't forget: * Stop doing any meaningful in-person inspection of the vehicle to ensure that it is in good condition before joining the network * Stop requiring cars to be <= 4 years old * (Seemingly) stop requiring drivers to maintain trunk space free for passengers' luggage
everforward 8mo ago
The ads will be awful, because you’re effectively captive. You only control the volume and screen if they let you.
- philipwhiuk 8mo ago
  Finally, a justification for owning an Apple Vision Pro.
crazygringo 8mo ago
Ads in vehicles are a sure thing. Also a sure thing you'll be able to pay a little extra to turn them off, which is basically just the full price of the trip unsubsidized by ads. It'll be up to you, just like whether you want your Netflix cheaper with ads, or more expensive but without. I see that choice as a good thing. The rest of your suggestions are incredibly unlikely. Google doesn't even scan your Gmail anymore, you think they're going to create a privacy scandal by listening to your conversations? And they certainly don't sell your Maps timeline which is far more valuable than just a few car trips, so why on earth would they do that with Waymo? Nor does Google Maps offer to send you to Burger King when you hit directions for McDonald's. And taking a longer route that wastes time, battery and money, on the chance you'll be looking out the window to see a billboard rather than looking at your phone, doesn't make sense at all.

ai-x 8mo ago

Google's marketcap moves by Waymo's entire marketcap in a single day.

pandemic_region 8mo ago

"Please watch these ads before we start the ride. Any attempt to not look at the ads by looking away from the screen or closing your eyes will automatically cancel the ride."

floxy 8mo ago
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Ftheawesomedaily.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F02%2Fbest-of-4chan-4good-1.png&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=772e04d56600578f5bd4da15abd1ba7fd8c4d3c489868f4f0ece18c190f91a3a https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Ft...

g947o 8mo ago

> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified. Raise the price?

mbb70 8mo ago
Enshittification is a technique to make more money _without_ raising the price by simply making the product worse. Self-driving taxis have a high floor for 'making the product worse' because the car fundamentally has to drive itself.
- sowbug 8mo ago
  It appears that enshittification has joined exponential and literally as words that used to mean specific things but are now just generic intensifiers.

ronnier 8mo ago

> but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified My guess is that once Waymo starts to extremely take off, law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen. It will disproportionately impact an entire segment of the population and will put them out of work.

estearum 8mo ago
No they won't. The product is so outrageously superior on every dimension to the status quo that municipalities will figure out whatever they need to in order to accommodate them. You think the folks on City Council enjoy chauffeuring their own children around and will block a solution to it?
- ronnier 8mo ago
  Yes. It's already happening https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1pdzd2f/some_minneapolis_city_council_members_want_to/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1pdzd2f/some_m...
  - thinkmassive 8mo ago
    In Virginia too, proposed in HB1124: > The bill prohibits the use of autonomous vehicles as motor carriers of passengers or property without a human operator who (i) meets any state and federal qualifications for the operation of an autonomous vehicle; (ii) is physically present in such autonomous vehicle; and (iii) has the ability to monitor the performance of such vehicle and intervene in the operation of such vehicle, including operating such vehicle without the use of the automated driving system and stopping and turning off such vehicle if necessary. https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB1124 https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB1124
    - tanseydavid 8mo ago
      If they prohibit autonomous vehicles, eventually their constituencies will be screaming for it. It seems that many people, after trying out the service for themselves first hand, in a locale that has it available today, are very eager to have the service available to them in their home locale.

re-thc 8mo ago

> I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic? You also get some Starlink.

tgsovlerkhgsel 8mo ago

The obvious way such services enshittify is to become a monopoly by pushing everyone else out, then cranking up the prices (and lowering quality, e.g. by not cleaning the vehicles, longer wait times for better utilization, etc.)