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Hmmm. The source for the "FSD is safer" claim might not be wholly independent: "Tesla’s data shows that Full Self-Driving miles are twice as safe as manual driv

by sktb 8mo ago

Hmmm. The source for the "FSD is safer" claim might not be wholly independent: "Tesla’s data shows that Full Self-Driving miles are twice as safe as manual driving"

gizmo686 8mo ago
I would be surprised if that was what they were actually looking at. They are an established insurance company with their own data and the actuaries to analyze it. I can't imagine them doing this without at least validating a substantial drop in claims relating to FSD capable cars. Now that they are offering this program, they should start getting much better data by being able to correlate claims with actual FSD usage. They might be viewing this program partially as a data acquisition project to help them insure autonomous vehicles more broadly in the future.
- Veserv 8mo ago
  They are a grossly unprofitable insurance company. Your actuaries can undervalue risk to the point you are losing money on every claim and still achieve that. In fact, Tesla Insurance, the people who already have direct access to the data already loses money on every claim [1]. [1] https://peakd.com/tesla/@newageinv/teslas-push-into-insurance-innovation-meets-reality https://peakd.com/tesla/@newageinv/teslas-push-into-insuranc...
  - navigate8310 8mo ago
    Tesla expanding into insurance actuarial science, isn't it a conflict of interest if they offer it for their own cars?
- redanddead 8mo ago
  > They might be viewing this program partially as a data acquisition project to help them insure autonomous vehicles more broadly in the future What do you mean?
ErroneousBosh 8mo ago
> "Tesla’s data shows that Full Self-Driving miles are twice as safe as manual driving" Teslas only do FSD on motorways where you tend to have far fewer accidents per mile. Also, they switch to manual driving if they can't cope, and because the driver isn't paying attention this usually results in a crash. But hey, it's in manual driving, not FSD, so they get to claim FSD is safer. FSD is not and never will be safer than a human driver.
- Onavo 8mo ago
  > Teslas only do FSD on motorways where you tend to have far fewer accidents per mile. They have been end to end street level for the past two years.
  - ErroneousBosh 8mo ago
    Not successfully.
    - qwerpy 8mo ago
      Successful enough for me and many other people I know. End to end from my house to grocery store, kids schools, friends houses, etc. Multiple times per day for the past year. It’s not perfect but I’d consider it a smashing success for something I rely on for safely transporting my family every day.
      - ErroneousBosh 8mo ago
        I wouldn't feel safe in one. I've seen how they drive, and I've had a brief shot of a car with FSD. They are not safe and they will never be safe.
        mavhc 8mo ago
        If they're not safe then why does the data show they're safer than humans? Why will they never be safe? Also can you define safe?
ex-aws-dude 8mo ago
It doesn't really matter because the insurance company itself will learn if that is correct or not when the claims start coming in Its their own bet to make

by sktb 8mo ago

Hmmm. The source for the "FSD is safer" claim might not be wholly independent: "Tesla’s data shows that Full Self-Driving miles are twice as safe as manual driving"

gizmo686 8mo ago

I would be surprised if that was what they were actually looking at. They are an established insurance company with their own data and the actuaries to analyze it. I can't imagine them doing this without at least validating a substantial drop in claims relating to FSD capable cars. Now that they are offering this program, they should start getting much better data by being able to correlate claims with actual FSD usage. They might be viewing this program partially as a data acquisition project to help them insure autonomous vehicles more broadly in the future.

Veserv 8mo ago
They are a grossly unprofitable insurance company. Your actuaries can undervalue risk to the point you are losing money on every claim and still achieve that. In fact, Tesla Insurance, the people who already have direct access to the data already loses money on every claim [1]. [1] https://peakd.com/tesla/@newageinv/teslas-push-into-insurance-innovation-meets-reality https://peakd.com/tesla/@newageinv/teslas-push-into-insuranc...
- navigate8310 8mo ago
  Tesla expanding into insurance actuarial science, isn't it a conflict of interest if they offer it for their own cars?
redanddead 8mo ago
> They might be viewing this program partially as a data acquisition project to help them insure autonomous vehicles more broadly in the future What do you mean?

ErroneousBosh 8mo ago

> "Tesla’s data shows that Full Self-Driving miles are twice as safe as manual driving" Teslas only do FSD on motorways where you tend to have far fewer accidents per mile. Also, they switch to manual driving if they can't cope, and because the driver isn't paying attention this usually results in a crash. But hey, it's in manual driving, not FSD, so they get to claim FSD is safer. FSD is not and never will be safer than a human driver.

Onavo 8mo ago
> Teslas only do FSD on motorways where you tend to have far fewer accidents per mile. They have been end to end street level for the past two years.
- ErroneousBosh 8mo ago
  Not successfully.
  - qwerpy 8mo ago
    Successful enough for me and many other people I know. End to end from my house to grocery store, kids schools, friends houses, etc. Multiple times per day for the past year. It’s not perfect but I’d consider it a smashing success for something I rely on for safely transporting my family every day.
    - ErroneousBosh 8mo ago
      I wouldn't feel safe in one. I've seen how they drive, and I've had a brief shot of a car with FSD. They are not safe and they will never be safe.
      - mavhc 8mo ago
        If they're not safe then why does the data show they're safer than humans? Why will they never be safe? Also can you define safe?

ex-aws-dude 8mo ago

It doesn't really matter because the insurance company itself will learn if that is correct or not when the claims start coming in Its their own bet to make