4 ms·
If you predict a crash every month and it happens after 2 years... can we call you a visionary?
by yomismoaqui 9mo ago
If you predict a crash every month and it happens after 2 years... can we call you a visionary?
- mrbombastic 9mo agoYes and thank you in advance
- cbdevidal 9mo agoZeroHedge has correctly predicted two hundred of the last two recessions ;-)
- slfreference 9mo agoZeroHedge can stay irrational far longer than you can stay sane.
- pinkmuffinere 9mo agoI know the question is tongue-in-cheek, but I think it’s a fascinating question, so I’ll take it seriously. If you predict the crash and it happens two years later, i think you basically cannot profit off that guess, so I’d say no. Although i haven’t provided data for the two-year claim, there certainly exists some period N for which the prediction no longer pays off, given a fixed drop. But if you can predict it 6 months in advance, you probably could profit! I think a certain amount of annoying repetition is fine for profitability.
- Breza 9mo agoIf a company has a fundamentally good business model, I can just buy the stock and forget about it for years. I wish there were something equivalent for companies with bad business models. You can't just short something and come back ten years later to check the price.
- diogenescynic 9mo agoThere's a real estate YouTube channel that's been calling for a real estate downturn for like 8 years (pre-Pandemic). Eventually they'll be right.
- trgn 9mo agoreal's estate been flat for a number of years now in half the country, down even in some parts. not a crash perse, but certainly a bad investment and starkly different from situation 4-5 years ago.
- matwood 9mo agoTiming is obviously always the issue. When Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance '96 in regards to the .com bubble, the Nasdaq proceeded to go up almost another 4x in price and it didn't crash for 3 more years.