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Countries have incentives to manipulate population data. Most error that I’m aware of is not attributable to poor data quality. For example, if you have a real

Countries have incentives to manipulate population data. Most error that I’m aware of is not attributable to poor data quality. For example, if you have a real estate bubble you have a strong incentive to show population growth.

Muromec 9mo ago
>For example, if you have a real estate bubble you have a strong incentive to show population growth. That's one source of bias that is present at a specific time. Mostly you would have competing incentives. There is usually more than one agency that runs does the counting. Vital records registration, voter rolls and tax payers lists, for example are separate agencies in some countries. Not every tax payer is a voter and not everyone who was born still lives in the country. The sources are sometimes cross-referenced too. Then there is usually a place that needs to do macroeconomic forecasting and needs to have some numbers to do it's job.
deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]
tscherno 9mo ago
Agree. I feel that it is beneficial to present yourself larger than you really are.
- willturman 9mo ago
  The first rule in Saul Alinsky's Rules for Radicals: 1. Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals
- tolciho 9mo ago
  King Louis XIV lost a bunch of his land to astronomers able to more accurately measure said land. This is the sort of thing that can happen when you want to turn your country into a world leader in science.
ekianjo 9mo ago
Not just that. Poorer countries inflate their numbers so they can get more financial aid
- nerevarthelame 9mo ago
  Do you have specific examples? This study published in Nature [0] says that rural populations in particular are typically UNDERCOUNTED (exactly like the Papa New Guinea in the OP's article), and that this happens at similar rates across poorer and wealthier countries: "no clear effect of country income on the accuracies of the five datasets can be observed." [0]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56906-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56906-7
  - MarkusQ 9mo ago
    That study has...issues. https://human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/ruralPopDisclaimer.php https://human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/ruralPopDis...
autoexec 9mo ago
I doubt places where the data is poor like Somalia or Afghanistan are making up their numbers because of a real estate bubble
- PlatoIsADisease 9mo ago
  [flagged]
- therein 9mo ago
  There are many other incentives, such as cities getting funding from the state proportional to their population.

Muromec 9mo ago

>For example, if you have a real estate bubble you have a strong incentive to show population growth. That's one source of bias that is present at a specific time. Mostly you would have competing incentives. There is usually more than one agency that runs does the counting. Vital records registration, voter rolls and tax payers lists, for example are separate agencies in some countries. Not every tax payer is a voter and not everyone who was born still lives in the country. The sources are sometimes cross-referenced too. Then there is usually a place that needs to do macroeconomic forecasting and needs to have some numbers to do it's job.

deleted 9mo ago

[deleted]

tscherno 9mo ago

Agree. I feel that it is beneficial to present yourself larger than you really are.

willturman 9mo ago
The first rule in Saul Alinsky's Rules for Radicals: 1. Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals
tolciho 9mo ago
King Louis XIV lost a bunch of his land to astronomers able to more accurately measure said land. This is the sort of thing that can happen when you want to turn your country into a world leader in science.

ekianjo 9mo ago

Not just that. Poorer countries inflate their numbers so they can get more financial aid

nerevarthelame 9mo ago
Do you have specific examples? This study published in Nature [0] says that rural populations in particular are typically UNDERCOUNTED (exactly like the Papa New Guinea in the OP's article), and that this happens at similar rates across poorer and wealthier countries: "no clear effect of country income on the accuracies of the five datasets can be observed." [0]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56906-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56906-7
- MarkusQ 9mo ago
  That study has...issues. https://human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/ruralPopDisclaimer.php https://human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/ruralPopDis...

autoexec 9mo ago

I doubt places where the data is poor like Somalia or Afghanistan are making up their numbers because of a real estate bubble

PlatoIsADisease 9mo ago
[flagged]
therein 9mo ago
There are many other incentives, such as cities getting funding from the state proportional to their population.